STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but that does not tell the story of recent days. The quant flipped short on Tuesday and then back to the long side yesterday. By the time the flip to the shot side could be posted, the robot whipsawed back to the long side. Chips and retail stocks lead the way higher yesterday out of the gate and the banks and commodities are dictating if the party continues.

The VIX remained below the levels mentioned in previous posts so you knew that the bulls were still in control. The algo number is 18 points above the signal line not that big of a difference so the caution flag remains out.

Bulls need GTX above 3773 (now at 3719) to signal the all-clear for more upside stock market joy. Bears need XLF below 32.90 (now at 33.24) to stop the stock market rally and introduce negativity. Higher volatility and weaker chips and retail stocks would fuel negativity.

If XLF loses 32.90, it will likely not be enough to flip the quant short on the first try. If this occurs, however, watch to see if XLF jogs to and fro across the 32.90 line in the sand. If XLF loses 32.90, then regains it for a little while, then loses it again, that is a sign that the stock market is likely weakening, and the robot is likely setting-up to go short. Bulls are in good shape if XLF remains above 32.90.

The trade that ended on Tuesday ran for 11 days. The quant program and the actual trading generated by the quant each gain about +2% on that trade. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters RWM. On the whipsaw trade back to the long side, that trade lasting only about 4-1/2 hours, the algorithm program and the actual trading each lose about a percent. Keybot the Quant exits RWM and enters SPY remaining in 1x ETF's. For the year, the S&P 500, which is the US stock market, is down -17%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10% with the robot outperforming the S&P 500 by 27 percentage points.

Markets remain chop suey. Watch the bull/bear lines in the sand that currently dictate US stock market direction. XLF 32.90. GTX 3773. VIX 25.84.

7/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/28/22; 11:34 AM EST = +9; signal line is -9
7/28/22; 9:57 AM EST = -7; signal line is -11
7/27/22; 3:09 PM EST = +9; signal line is -10
7/27/22; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -12; go long 3959; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -16.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.7%)
7/26/22; 2:31 PM EST = -39; signal line is -12
7/26/22; 12:28 PM EST = -23; signal line is -11
7/26/22; 11:58 AM EST = -39; signal line is -11
7/26/22; 11:28 AM EST = -23; signal line is -12; go short 3926; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +12.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +10.4%)
7/26/22; 11:10 AM EST = -23; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains long
7/26/22; 10:44 AM EST = -7; signal line is -14
7/26/22; 10:34 AM EST = -23; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains long
7/26/22; 10:17 AM EST = -7; signal line is -15
7/26/22; 10:16 AM EST = +9; signal line is -15
7/26/22; 10:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -17
7/26/22; 9:51 AM EST = -6; signal line is -18
7/25/22; 3:44 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19
7/25/22; 3:09 PM EST = -6; signal line is -20
7/25/22; 9:54 AM EST = +10; signal line is -22
7/24/22; 7:00 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24
7/22/22; 3:43 PM EST = -6; signal line is -25
7/22/22; 2:05 PM EST = -22; signal line is -27
7/22/22; 11:39 AM EST = -6; signal line is -29
7/22/22; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is -30
7/22/22; 10:05 AM EST = -6; signal line is -32
7/22/22; 10:02 AM EST = -22; signal line is -34
7/21/22; 3:54 PM EST = -6; signal line is -35
7/20/22; 12:41 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37
7/20/22; 12:02 PM EST = -6; signal line is -38
7/20/22; 9:44 AM EST = -22; signal line is -39
7/19/22; 12:36 PM EST = -6; signal line is -40
7/19/22; 12:09 PM EST = -22; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 10:26 AM EST = -6; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 9:48 AM EST = -22; signal line is -43
7/19/22; 9:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -44
7/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = -54; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 3:45 PM EST = -54; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 11:27 AM EST = -38; signal line is -45
7/18/22; 10:18 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/18/22; 9:38 AM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -22; signal line is -47
7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/15/22; 3:08 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 11:09 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 10:33 AM EST = -38; signal line is -46; go long 3855; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. The quant is very active this week printing 13 numbers at the mid-week point. UTIL keeps standing on the 956.78 trap-door.

The bulls are using the retail stocks, chips, utilities and volatility for strength. The bears are trying to keep the banks and commodities in their camp and at the same time grab one of the bull's parameters to create negativity.

Bears need UTIL under 956.78 (the trap-door) and VIX above 26.30 to stop the rally.

Bulls need XLF above 32.90 (now at 32.72) to create more upside joy. GTX above 3788 (now at 3700) will also send stocks strongly higher. The banks are the tell.

If XLF stalls here and cannot move above 32.90, it tells you the bears are going to push back hard and attack the utes and volatility. If XLF pierces up through 32.90, it is game on for more big upside in stocks as the shorts panic.

7/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/22; 12:02 PM EST = -6; signal line is -38
7/20/22; 9:44 AM EST = -22; signal line is -39
7/19/22; 12:36 PM EST = -6; signal line is -40
7/19/22; 12:09 PM EST = -22; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 10:26 AM EST = -6; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 9:48 AM EST = -22; signal line is -43
7/19/22; 9:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -44
7/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = -54; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 3:45 PM EST = -54; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 11:27 AM EST = -38; signal line is -45
7/18/22; 10:18 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/18/22; 9:38 AM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -22; signal line is -47
7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/15/22; 3:08 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side on Friday morning an hour after the opening bell. UTIL regains 956 printing at 963 and VIX drops below 26.78 to 24.23 so the bulls throw confetti buying stocks with reckless abandon. The internal parameters of the quant did not put up a struggle for once, all of the metrics immediately latched and the flip to the long side occurs at SPX 3855. The algo number is only 8 points above the signal line so the stock market remains a coin-flip.

Retail stocks are puffing their chests out wanting a piece of the action. Chips, too. Bulls need RTH above 159.84 (only 22 pennies away) to signal the all-clear for more upside fun. Bulls will also send stocks strongly higher if SOX moves above 2774 (now at 2694).

Bears need to push the VIX above 26.78 and/or UTIL below 956 to reopen the utility trap-door. If either parameter flips bearish, and the SPX is down about 45 points or more, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

If RTH or SOX jump into the bull camp, look out, US stocks will be catapulting higher probably in a short squeeze.

On the last trade that only ran for a couple days, the quant and the actual trading each lose about a half percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, is down -19%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up about +10% and actual trading triggered by the quant is up about +8% on the year. Keybot exits DOG and enters SPY remaining in 1x ETF's due to the whipsaw price pattern.

Bulls win big with RTH 159.84 and SOX 2744. Bears win big with UTIL 956 and VIX 26.78. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and semiconductors to light the way to big stock market gains. Bears need weaker utilities and higher volatility to create mayhem and destroy any hopes of upside in stocks. As retail stocks go on Monday, so goes the market.

7/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/22; 9:00 AM EST =
7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/22; 3:08 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 11:09 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 10:33 AM EST = -38; signal line is -46; go long 3855; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.4%)
7/15/22; 10:00 AM EST = -54; signal line is -47
7/15/22; 9:37 AM EST = -54; signal line is -46
7/14/22; 3:58 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains short
7/14/22; 2:26 PM EST = -54; signal line is -47
7/14/22; 9:36 AM EST = -68; signal line is -46
7/13/22; 3:59 PM EST = -52; signal line is -44
7/13/22; 2:34 PM EST = -38; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains short
7/13/22; 11:45 AM EST = -52; signal line is -43
7/13/22; 10:02 PM EST = -68; signal line is -42
7/12/22; 3:02 PM EST = -52; signal line is -41; go short 3831; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls battle back yesterday afternoon. Utilities and volatility are running the show these days with UTIL 956.00 and VIX 26.78 the bull/bear lines in the sand.

UTIL is at 956.59 only 59 pennies from opening the trap-door to Hell. S&P futures are down -50 points as this is typed with the VIX above 28. The utility trap-door will likely open so watch to see if it stays open, or not. If UTIL falls below 956.00 and remains below, the stock market will be taking One Last Breath before it collapses into ugliness.

Bulls must hold the line at UTIL 956.00 with everything they got. At the same time, bulls must push the VIX below 26.78 to stage a comeback. If VIX drops under 26.78 and the SPX is above 3829, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. There is an ugly start on tap for the open, however.

If stocks collapse as the futures indicate, but UTIL recovers or remains above 956, the bears got nothing and stocks will reverse and rally higher today. Ditto with the VIX that should launch higher to 29 and 30 when stocks drop, if not, it hints that a lot of the selling may be exhausted and ending.

UTIL 956.00 and VIX 26.78 tell you everything you need to know about the US stock market direction forward.

7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/22; 10:00 AM EST =
7/13/22; 3:59 PM EST = -52; signal line is -44
7/13/22; 2:34 PM EST = -38; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains short
7/13/22; 11:45 AM EST = -52; signal line is -43
7/13/22; 10:02 PM EST = -68; signal line is -42
7/12/22; 3:02 PM EST = -52; signal line is -41; go short 3831; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3831 as volatility ran higher. US stocks are about to open for the regular hump day session and futures are in a sour mood after the inflation report. Markets continue the chop and don't be surprised if a chop higher occurs again.

VIX 26.78 is the bull/bear line in the sand and it pops over 28 after the data remaining firmly in the bear camp that started yesterday at 3 PM EST. Bears remain in control of the stock market as long as the VIX remains above 26.78. If VIX drops below 26.78, the bulls will take over.

Boom. The utility trap-door opens. It's not good for bulls but great for bears. If you were watching yesterday, the bears tried to open it but failed, nonetheless, they created negativity with the higher vol. UTIL 956 is the trap-door that fails in the opening minutes with price down to 953. Can it hold? UTIL 956 will tell you a lot about what happens today. Ditto VIX 26.78.

On the last trade that ran for only a few days, the quant program and actual trading each lose about a percent. For the year, the SPX benchmark index is down about -20%, the quant program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +9% (outperforming the US stock market by nearly 30 percentage points). Keybot the Quant exits QQQ and enters DOG.

Boom. Nullification. UTIL is at 957 the bulls closing the trap-door. Watch UTIL 956 and VIX 26.78. Nothing Else Matters.

7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/22; 10:00 AM EST =
7/12/22; 3:02 PM EST = -52; signal line is -41; go short 3831; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.9%)
7/12/22; 8:56 AM EST = -38; signal line is -40
7/12/22; 3:06 AM EST = -52; signal line is -40 but algorithm remains long
7/11/22; 10:57 AM EST = -38; signal line is -39
7/11/22; 10:36 AM EST = -54; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains long
7/10/22; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39
7/8/22; 9:00 AM EST = -38; signal line is -38 but algorithm remains long
7/6/22; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39; go long 3856; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 3856 yesterday afternoon. Interestingly, that is the third turn in three days; Friday the robot flipped long, Tuesday short, now Wednesday long. In the long history of the algorithm, if memory serves, this has only happened one other time. Maybe Thursday will be a fourth turn?

The bears tried to open the UTIL trap-door but could not so the bulls rallied hoping to push VIX below 26.95, and they did creating upside energy. The quant is on the long side again but the markets remain a crap-shoot. The algo number and signal line are both at the -38 and -39 numbers so flip a coin to determine the path ahead.

UTIL 955 and VIX 26.95 remain the key to stock market direction currently. Both are sitting in the bull camp creating upside lift to the US stock market. Bears need UTIL below 955 (now at 968) to open the trap-door and create market mayhem. Bears need VIX above 26.95 (now at 26.69 in real-time) to create negativity in the stock market.

If either UTIL or VIX turns bearish, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 3809, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If both flip into the bear camp, the robot may flip short faster at SPX 3817, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. It's a crap-shoot. Markets are erratic and unstable.

Bulls need to maintain UTIL above 955, VIX below 26.95, and to try and rally chips, banks, retail and other sectors.

Since VIX is battling at the 26.95 bull/bear line in the sand, that is the rudder for today's market ship. As VIX goes, so goes the stock market in the opposite direction.

On the last trade that did not last a full 2 days, the quant program and actual trading each lose 2-1/2%. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -19% back out of a bear market according to the silly -20% metric. For the year, the Keybot the Quant program is up about +12% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +10% outperforming the benchmark SPX by 29 percentage-points. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters QQQ.

Watch VIX 26.95; it will tell you What's Up. VIX is trading at 26.66.

7/10/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/22; 9:00 AM EST =
7/6/22; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39; go long 3856; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.9%)
7/5/22; 3:08 PM EST = -52; signal line is -39
7/5/22; 12:21 PM EST = -68; signal line is -38
7/5/22; 12:00 PM EST = -52; signal line is -37
7/5/22; 11:00 AM EST = -68; signal line is -36
7/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = -52; signal line is -35; go short 3760; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -21.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +14.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2022 = +12.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH --SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 3760 out of the gate yesterday as described in the previous post. The whipsaw action continues. Commodities are collapsing with the rising dollar due to the weakening euro and pound (Europe's economy is falling apart). Utilities and volatility are controlling the US stock market direction today. The bears are in charge with the algo number 13 points below the signal line that is not a glowing endorsement of the downside as yet.

Watch UTIL 954.90, the trap-door for stocks, and VIX 26.95 the other bull/bear line in the sand. The trap-door opened briefly yesterday but the bulls closed it again. You know the drill. If UTIL 954.90 fails, there will be Hell to pay. UTIL is trading at 963.35 this second (bullish) and dipped to the 959 palindrome a few minutes ago. Watch it closely since it tells you if the bulls can survive, or not. It's All Over Now, Baby Blue, if UTIL fails at 954-955 and the trap-door opens for stocks. If UTIL remains above 954, it tells you that the downside does not have much oomph and the bulls will reexert themselves.

Bulls need VIX below 26.95 or they got absolutely nothing. Stocks will not rally unless VIX moves below 26.95. Period. If a rally occurs but VIX remains above 26.95, the rally will fade and give way to lower numbers ahead. If a rally occurs and VIX drops below 26.95, it is off to the races and if the SPX is above 3849 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

On the last trade, a whipsaw from late Friday before the holiday, the algo program and actual trading both lose -1.6%. For the year, the S&P 500 is down -21%, the robot's program is up +14% and the actual trading triggered by the quant is up +12% (outperforming the benchmark US stock market by 33 percentage-points). The quant will remain in the 1x ETF's for another 30 days due to another whipsaw. The erratic price moves are chop suey chopping up bulls and bears alike. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters DIA. 

SPX is at 3832. UTIL is at 964 but bears need 954. VIX is at 27.76 but bulls need 26.95. One of them will flinch and tell you the direction of the stock market ahead.

7/10/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/22; 9:00 AM EST =
7/5/22; 3:08 PM EST = -52; signal line is -39
7/5/22; 12:21 PM EST = -68; signal line is -38
7/5/22; 12:00 PM EST = -52; signal line is -37
7/5/22; 11:00 AM EST = -68; signal line is -36
7/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = -52; signal line is -35; go short 3760; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -21.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +14.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2022 = +12.4%)
7/4/22; 3:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains long
7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is -36
7/1/22; 3:33 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37; go long 3822; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +15.8%)(Actual results this trade = +6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +14.0%)

Note Added 12:11 PM EST: The SPX is at 3815 down 17 points but UTIL is up at 961. Note that the bears were jumping up and down on the trap door at 11:01 AM EST with UTIL printing the LOD at 954.71, but the trap-door would not open. The battle continues. VIX remains elevated at 27.80. Perhaps the bulls will now try to push volatility lower with the help of the Fed.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Friday afternoon at SPX 3822 during the last one-half hour of trading. Higher utilities and lower volatility pump the stock market higher producing a big reversal off the intraday lows. July begins on a positive note for the bulls.

The algo number is 15 points above the signal line so the flip to the bull camp is not enthusiastic as yet. The caution flag and imminent turn notation is in the title line since anything can happen come Tuesday when US markets reopen after the Independence Day holiday on Monday, 7/4/22.

Utilities, volatility and commodities are controlling US stock market direction currently. UTIL is at 989 above the key 953 level and also crosses above the 983 line in the sand creating stock market joy. It took the whole week to get there but UTIL finally made it overcoming 983. But, next week will be what have you done for me lately? The 983 number is meaningless and replaced with 1016.64 for all of next week (only 4 trading days due to the holiday).

Thus, UTIL must gain 34 big points out of the gate on Tuesday morning. It likely will not happen which sets up bearish negativity to start next week. If UTIL does not attain 1017 as trading begins, watch the SPX because if it is below 3752 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side (hence, the imminent turn notation above). The SPX begins at 3825 so that would be a hefty drop of 73 points that the bears need.

The VIX drops to 26.70, comically called out by happenstance in the last message before it occurred in real-time, creating bull fuel. The big stock market rally into the closing bell was created by the VIX dropping below 27.02 so watch it like a hawk. Bulls rule below 27 but bears rule above 27. Like the utes, if VIX moves above 27 and the SPX drops below 3752, the robot will likely flip short.

If UTIL is unable to achieve 1017 (likely) and VIX moves above 27, the bears may be able to flip the model short if the SPX drops below 3784. So there are lots of moving parts and Tuesday may be a wild day as traders nurse hangovers and upset stomachs from parties, fireworks and deviled eggs left out in the sun a few hours. The stock market is a coin-flip.

Bulls need stronger commodities to keep the upside party going. UTIL will likely not attain 1017 right away on Monday morning, so bulls need something else to keep them going and that is commodities. GTX is at 3824. Bulls will rejoice with stocks rallying if GTX overtakes 3843 heading higher. Out of the gate on Friday morning, GTX came straight up to kiss the bull/bear line in the sand, but collapsed rather than poking up through. It will likely take another run at 3843 on Tuesday morning.

Markets can go either way but UTIL 953 and 1017, VIX 27.02 and GTX 3843 tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction next week. UTIL is above 953 and VIX is below 27.02 creating lift and buoyancy in the stock market but UTIL is below 1017 and GTX under 3843 creating sogginess in stocks. One or several of these parameters may flip sides and that tells you where the stock market is going. Easy-peasy.

On the last trade that ran for 3 weeks, the robot program and actual trading both gain about +6% (the model was short as stocks fell). For the year thus far, with one-half of it in the bag, the benchmark SPX is down -20% continuing to tease that stupid bear market level.

Use the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross to identify cyclical bull and bear markets not the idiot -20% stuff. Also, use the slope of the 150-day MA for indexes and individual stocks to identify bull and bear markets. If the 150-day MA is sloping down, that ticker is in a bear market, if sloping up, a bull market. The S&P 500, the US stock market, is unequivocally in a cyclical bear market currently despite that -19.8% garbage that says it is not.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +16% on the year thus far and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +14% so far in 2022. Keybot the Quant's trades are outperforming the benchmark SPX by 34 percentage points; that's bigtime. The whipsaw timer from 6/2/22 has not yet expired so Keybot exits SH and enters DIA remaining in the 1x ETF's.

Happy July 4th to all. The bulls are back in charge; the Boys Are Back in Town as Thin Lizzy would sing. Keep your eyes open for a potential whipsaw on Tuesday but, as explained above, the SPX is going to have to drop from 41 to 73 points so it may be too tall of an order for the bears.

If you want the stock market to drop, you want weaker utilities, weaker commodities and higher volatility. If you want the stock market to rally, you want stronger utes, stronger commodities and lower volatility.

7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/1/22; 3:33 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37; go long 3822; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +15.8%)(Actual results this trade = +6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +14.0%)
7/1/22; 2:20 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
7/1/22; 1:30 PM EST = -36; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
7/1/22; 12:03 PM EST = -52; signal line is -37
7/1/22; 11:06 AM EST = -52; signal line is -36
6/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = -52; signal line is -34
6/30/22; 10:18 AM EST = -52; signal line is -33
6/28/22; 11:25 AM EST = -38; signal line is -32
6/28/22; 11:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 10:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -29
6/28/22; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 6:35 AM EST = -21; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 5:41 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
6/28/22; 4:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 3:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is -21
6/27/22; 3:59 PM EST = -21; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:13 AM EST = -35; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:01 AM EST = -51; signal line is -17
6/27/22; 9:47 AM EST = -35; signal line is -14
6/27/22; 9:36 AM EST = -51; signal line is -13
6/26/22; 7:00 PM EST = -35; signal line is -10
6/24/22; 3:23 PM EST = -35; signal line is -7
6/24/22; 3:00 PM EST = -21; signal line is -5
6/24/22; 1:48 PM EST = -37; signal line is -4
6/24/22; 10:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is -2
6/19/22; 7:00 PM EST = -51; signal line is +1
6/16/22; 9:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is +3
6/13/22; 10:48 AM EST = -51; signal line is +6
6/13/22; 9:36 AM EST = -35; signal line is +9
6/12/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +10
6/10/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +12
6/10/22; 8:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +13
6/10/22; 7:11 AM EST = -5; signal line is +13
6/10/22; 6:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is +13
6/9/22; 2:41 PM EST = -5; signal line is +13; go short 4078; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -14.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +9.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues. The robot is active this week except for hump day when it did not print any numbers. The algo number is 18 points below the signal line so the bears remain in charge. Utilities, volatility and commodities are controlling the stock market direction currently. After a long run, commodities took the pipe creating the negative market mood.

Bulls must keep the stock market trap-door closed that is at UTIL 953 with price at 969. If/when UTIL loses 953, stock market Hell will be unleashed. The short-term picture for utes is encouraging (UTIL above 953) and should help stocks gain their footing. It is actually a huge win for bulls to keep UTIL above 953. Watch it every day forward because, again, when it fails, you will see the Grim Reaper. If utes fall into a weekly downtrend (see previous post), it will paint an ugly picture for the weeks ahead for stocks.

Setting utes aside assuming UTIL will remain above 953 but not have anymore upside gusto, volatility and commodities will be the big drivers of stocks. A weaker dollar would help commodities recover and aid the bull case. Goldman's GTX index needs to move above 3837 (now at 3768) to create upside market joy.  

Bulls need the VIX to drop below 27.03 (now trading in real-time at 28.64) to create a bullish rally. Watch for jog moves in the VIX and GTX that will hint that the quant is getting ready to go long (VIX or GTX crosses the lines in the sand but then a short time later (minutes or an hour or so) revert back but then a little while after that move back over the bull/bear line). For example, if VIX drops below 27, then a half hour later is at 27.50 or more, and then a half hour after that is down to 26.80, the robot is likely ready to flip long.

The SPX would likely need to be above 3819 or higher for Keybot the Quant to flip long. If VIX or GTX turn bullish, consider the caution flag to be out and if the SPX is above 3819 moving higher, Keybot the Quant is likely ready to go long (imminent turn to the long side).

Volatility is the big tell. Bulls have absolutely zero oomph unless they move the VIX under 27. If so, you will notice a huge rally develop.

7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = -52; signal line is -34
6/30/22; 10:18 AM EST = -52; signal line is -33
6/28/22; 11:25 AM EST = -38; signal line is -32
6/28/22; 11:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 10:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -29
6/28/22; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 6:35 AM EST = -21; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 5:41 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
6/28/22; 4:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 3:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is -21
6/27/22; 3:59 PM EST = -21; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:13 AM EST = -35; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:01 AM EST = -51; signal line is -17
6/27/22; 9:47 AM EST = -35; signal line is -14
6/27/22; 9:36 AM EST = -51; signal line is -13
6/26/22; 7:00 PM EST = -35; signal line is -10