STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side yesterday at SPX 6497 as the stock market goes to pot on Iran War negativity. The choppy whipsaw slop for the last half-year is getting old. It is difficult to make money in non-trending markets. It does not matter if it trends up or down just pick one already. Stocks may whipsaw back to the long side today the way things are going. Like the old joke about the weather, stick around, in 10 minutes it will change again.

Yesterday's price action was interesting since price fell out of bed due to chips failing but the NYA index did not. The critical SPX 6501 line in the sand, however, did give way and it is a biggie.

SOX 7755, SPX 6501 and NYA 21701 are the three lines in the sand controlling stock market direction currently. The chips fail to 7586 so the bulls have some work to do to bring it back above 7755 to help the stock market. SOX and the SPX are creating negativity but the NYA is still bullish.

SPX 6501 and NYA 21701 are cyclical stock market indicators the two most important metrics that exist. The SPX is below forecasting a cyclical bear market ahead while the NYA is not convinced. The battle makes the path forward in the short term an easy call.

If NYA drops below 21701, and joins the SPX in the cyclical bear camp, the gates to Hell are wide open and stocks will collapse.

If SPX regains the 6501 level, the bears are all growl and no bite and stocks will likely recover. If this is the case, watch the chips to see if the upside has legs. Stocks will remain in a weak state if the semiconductors remain subdued.

The utilities remain in the bull camp throughout the market turmoil. This hints that the major crash lower for the stock market will likely not occur right now in the near-term time frame, although you never know. If utes were in the bear camp, we would be facing Armageddon now, but they are not. Negativity will likely develop in the utilities going forward.

For the last trade that ran for a day, the quant program and actual trading are both hit with a two percent loss giving back a big part of the prior gains. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down a touch more than -5%. The quant program and actual trading this year is down about -4% so no one is happy so far but there is a lot of year remaining. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SH. The use of single ETF's, due to the choppy whipsaw price action, will continue for another month.

Keybot prints a prescheduled number shortly after the opening bell this morning. The market is going up, going down, going up, down, down, up, anyway you want it, let it roll, as Jimmy taught us. Baby What You Want Me To Do.

3/29/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/27/26; 10:00 AM EST =
3/26/26; 1:55 PM EST = -24; signal line is -4
3/26/26; 1:54 PM EST = -10; signal line is -3; go short 6497 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -5.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2026 = -3.6%)
3/26/26; 10:47 AM EST = -10; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains long
3/25/26; 9:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is -3; go long 6620 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -3.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.7%)