Thursday, March 5, 2026

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side at SPX 6805 not much of a surprise considering the non-stop sideways choppy slop this year. The stock market is controlled by chips and copper right now. Both jump back into the bear camp creating the flip back to the short side.

SOX 7857 and CPER 35.65 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. The path ahead remains a coin-flip because both metrics can easily flip bullish tomorrow, especially after the important US Monthly Jobs Report. The drop today and market turmoil is a surprise from the context that a flat boring day would have been expected into the jobs numbers in the morning. King Donnie Trumpski (the president) is given the jobs numbers the day before so did the orange head provide a heads-up to his wealthy friends so they could insider trade today?

SOX is at 7822 recovering late-day only 35 points away from the line in the sand so the semiconductors can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. CPER is at the 35.58 only 7 cents from the line in the sand so copper can easily flip back into the bull camp in the morning. Bulls need 1 of the 2 to turn bullish to stop the market selling and both are likely needed to flip the model long. If both parameters turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 6870, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw long. The whipsaw slop this year is getting old.

Watch chips and copper because they tell you the direction of the stock market. 

On the last trade that ran for about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses -1.7%. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down almost a percent. The quant program is down -5% and the actual trading is down -4%. Choppy whipsaw slop is Kryptonite against algorithms. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SH dropping down into the single ETF's again due to the whipsaw. The model will remain in single ETF's until early April to reduce risk.

This week, the bears had the ball and choked. The bulls took the ball and they fumbled. The bears have the ball back, running down field, but their shoes are untied and may trip up the furry critters. It is a coin-flip stock market. Jobs report on deck. Everyone's Working for the Weekend. Loverboy. This song would play non-stop on the Friday's during the 1980's into the 90's, even into the 00's. It was the end of the work week anthem that begins with some cowbell. Two days of freedom ahead for the working stiffs.

3/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
3/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
3/5/26; 12:21 PM EST = -22; signal line is +4; go short 6805 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = -0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -4.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -4.1%)
3/5/26; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
3/4/26; 10:22 AM EST = +10; signal line is +6; go long 6866 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.9%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.4%)

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