STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The drama continues with the Federal Reserve rate decision on tap tomorrow afternoon. The algo number is 9 points below the signal line so Keybot wants to flip short but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move so the beat goes on.

If the SPX drops below 3001, Keybot will likely flip short. Hump day begins with the S&P 500 at 3013 so that would be a 13-point drop for the SPX. Bears need equities to sell off slow and steady and not display a gap-down move at the Wednesday open since this may activate an internal timer and delay any move to the short side for about 90 minutes.

Copper collapses on Tuesday after the bulls jammed it higher on Monday to try and support the stock market. Bulls need CPER above 16.94 (now at 16.78 creating market negativity) and/or GTX (commodities) above 2490 (now at 2487 creating market negativity).

Bears need higher volatility to create market mayhem. Bears need the VIX above 14.40 (now at 13.91 creating market positivity).

Note that all three parameters are pennies from their bull-bear lines in the sand. Copper, commodities and volatility are controlling stock market direction currently. Nothing else matters. Retail stocks are also starting to appear on the quant's radar.

Markets may idle sideways until the Fed decision at 2 PM EST followed by Chairman Powell's song-and-dance press conference at 2:30 PM EST. Wednesday afternoon may see wild price action.

Watch CPER 16.94, GTX 2490 and VIX 14.40; these Three Stooges tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction.Tomorrow is the end of July trading (EOM) which will be an up month.

7/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/30/19; 10:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +67 but algorithm remains long

7/30/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +68 but algorithm remains long

7/29/19; 10:34 AM EST = +74; signal line is +69

7/29/19; 10:07 AM EST = +58; signal line is +70 but algorithm remains long

7/29/19; 9:40 AM EST = +74; signal line is +71

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST = +58; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side but the algo continues to want to flip short. The internal parameters will not fully latch to allow the move as yet. The algo number is 13 points below the signal line.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3027.98, call it 3028, and a new all-time closing high at 3025.86, call it 3026, on Friday, 7/26/19. Humorously, copper tanks -0.7% and loses -2.5% on the week. The global economy is slowing as evidenced by copper. 'Peak Auto' and a top in the housing market is likely occurring (the two largest users of copper). Copper should be leading higher considering the record stock market highs. The market behavior hints that the never-ending upside in stocks is due to the ongoing central banker largess for over one decade and has very little to do with economic growth projections. 

The stock market bulls need lower volatility and higher copper and commodities to guarantee further upside. Bulls need CPER above 16.97 (now at 16.85) and/or GTX above 2492 (now at 2457). Bulls need a +0.7% pop in copper futures overnight into Monday to prove they have the beans to take stocks higher.

The stock market bears need higher volatility and lower copper and commodities to send equities lower and get Keybot to flip short. Bears need the VIX to move above 14.35 (now at 12.16) which will immediately create serious market turmoil.

If the SPX drops below 3013, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The SPX begins the week at the 3026 record high. The bears would benefit from a slow steady move lower and not a gap-down move. If copper or commodities flip bullish, the stock market bulls will be singing songs and carrying on as the SPX marches higher to more record highs.

For the week ahead, Keybot prints four pre-scheduled numbers; one on Tuesday, one on Wednesday for month-end (EOM) and two on Friday morning.

Watch copper futures overnight and the VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Bulls need to immediately see an 11-handle in the VIX to prove that stocks can print further highs.

8/4/19; 7:00 PM EST =

8/2/19; 10:00 AM EST =

8/2/19; 9:00 AM EST =

7/31/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

7/30/19; 10:00 AM EST =

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST = +58; signal line is +71 but algorithm remains long

7/25/19; 12:33 PM EST = +58; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant algorithm flips to the long side on hump day at SPX 3009 but is already champing at the bit to go short again. The algo number is 14 points below the signal line wanting the model to flip bearish but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

Bears need the SPX below 2997; if so, it is highly likely that Keybot will flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. Bears will receive help if the VIX can move above 14.37.

Bulls need to prevent the SPX from dropping below 2997. If so, they will skate into the weekend without worry. Bulls need CPER above 16.97, now only a penny below at 16.96. Higher copper will guarantee more upside price action for equities. Bulls will also rejoice with higher commodities needing GTX to move above 2492.

If there is a big gap-down move in the S&P 500 at Friday's opening bell, that is not good for bears. Short sellers need to see a slow steady move lower and then a failure at SPX 2997. This will open the door to the downside, as long as copper remains bearish. If a gap-down does occur, it may trigger a timer and Keybot will likely delay any action for about 90 minutes.

Watch copper futures overnight since as copper goes, so goes the market.

On the last trade that lasted one week, the algo program lost a smidgeon. The actual trading lost -1%. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +20% this year from 2500-ish to 3000-ish. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up over +29% this year outperforming the SPX and most everyone on Wall Street. The beat goes on.

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST =

7/25/19; 12:33 PM EST = +58; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

7/24/19; 11:06 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

7/24/19; 10:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +75; go long 3009; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +20.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.3%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +15.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +29.4%)

7/24/19; 10:00 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75

7/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +75

7/22/19; 11:04 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains short

7/22/19; 10:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +74

7/22/19; 9:47 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains short

7/22/19; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +74

7/22/19; 8:28 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75

7/22/19; 8:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +75

7/22/19; 6:33 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75

7/22/19; 6:15 AM EST = +60; signal line is +75
7/22/19; 4:24 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76

7/22/19; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +76

7/21/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +76
7/19/19; 10:00 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76

7/17/19; 11:21 AM EST = +74; signal line is +77

7/17/19; 10:43 AM EST = +58; signal line is +77

7/17/19; 10:12 AM EST = +72; signal line is +78; go short 3000; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +19.666%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +7.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +16.2%)(Actual results this trade = +11.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +30.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short during Tuesday's 20-point pop in the S&P 500. Copper failed yesterday so the price action in the overall stock market was noise. Interestingly, stocks rallied on news of a resumption of the US-China trade talks but the number one key component that should have rallied on such news, copper, fell -0.6%. Housing stocks also crumbled in the up tape.

Same dealio today with the market parameters. Copper, commodities and volatility are controlling stock market direction this week thus far. Bears need higher volatility, the VIX above 14.39 (now at 13.06) which will crush equities.

Bulls need CPER above 16.98 (now at 16.91) and/or GTX above 2493 (now at 2475). Any 1 of the 2 turning bullish tells you that more upside is on the way for equities. If both turn bullish, the SPX is headed to more new all-time highs.

Copper is key since the bulls and bears are only separated by 7 pennies which is about 0.4%. Copper futures are currently trading up +0.3% so the bulls are pushing hard to try and get CPER above 16.98 after the opening bell for the regular session.

Interestingly, CPER above 16.98 for a few minutes may not be able to flip the model long, however, if it jogs, say above 16.98 for 10 minutes or so, then back below 16.98 for 10 minutes or a half-hour, then back above 16.98 again, that may set up the move for Keybot to want to flip long. Nonetheless, stocks remain a coin-flip so the imminent turn notation remain in the title line.

The S&P 500 would likely at least need to move above 3006 today for the model to flip long. The SPX begins at 3005 so the bulls only need a point higher to increase the likelihood that Keybot will flip long, but alas, S&P futures are down -9 with the VIX at 13.06 about 3 hours before the opening bell. 

Bulls need higher copper and commodities while bears need higher volatility. This is all that matters for stock market direction currently. The Mueller hearings begin in a couple hours which may create market angst or joy. 

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST =

7/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +58; signal line is +75

7/22/19; 11:04 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after an active Monday. The model prints 10 numbers yesterday. It is always interesting how the quant may not print any numbers on any given day and then other days it spits out numbers like crazy. The stock market direction is a coin flip as evidenced by the algo number and signal line both at +74. Markets have to make a decision.

Bears need lower copper and higher volatility; CPER below 16.97 and VIX above 14.42, respectively. Bulls need higher commodities; GTX above 2491 to begin the path to more all-time highs.

CPER is at 17.03 and VIX is now trading and printing at the 13.31 palindrome. S&P futures are up +6 about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the Tuesday session. The bears need 6 pennies lower on CPER which represents a -0.4% drop in copper futures. Copper was trading flat until about 50 minutes ago when it quickly dropped to .... wait for it ..... -0.4%.

The battle is with copper and volatility both in the bull camp to begin the day but will they end the day the same? If both parameters remain bullish, and the SPX moves above 2991, Keybot may flip to the long side, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

The SPX begins at 2985 and if a +6 pop occurs at the opening bell the S&P 500 will be at ...... wait for it ....... 2991. If CPER or VIX turn bearish, stocks will begin falling in earnest. Today may be a key pivot day where one side or the other takes strong control.

As mentioned yesterday, the housing market parameter that is programmed into Keybot the Quant has turned bearish after over 7 years in the bull camp. This is important since if it remains negative, which is highly likely, it will prevent Keybot from printing a +100 maximum number going forward. This hints that a significant long-term top may be printing for the US stock market (think months and perhaps years).

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST =

7/22/19; 11:04 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains short

7/22/19; 10:51 AM EST = +60; signal line is +74

7/22/19; 9:47 AM EST = +74; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains short

7/22/19; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +74

7/22/19; 8:28 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75

7/22/19; 8:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +75

7/22/19; 6:33 AM EST = +74; signal line is +75

7/22/19; 6:15 AM EST = +60; signal line is +75
7/22/19; 4:24 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76

7/22/19; 3:06 AM EST = +60; signal line is +76

7/21/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +76

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side from SPX 3000 since Wednesday, 7/17/19. The algo number, however, is only 2 measly points below the signal line so the bull-bear tug-o-war continues. The S&P 500 prints new all-time highs above SPX 3K in recent days above the 2941 from last Fall. The 2941 will likely be a key support test at some point in the days ahead.

Note that the quant came up to print a few maximum +100 numbers again. This has occurred in clusters a few times over the last 1-1/2 years and represents epic and historic price action in the US stock market. The algorithm is an oscillator so, by definition, it has +100 as its maximum possible reading (uber off-the-charts bullish) and -100 as the minimum possible reading (end-of-the-world bearishness). The stock market is very likely printing a multi-month and perhaps very long-term multi-year top during the last 10 months.

If you are a young person with exposure to the stock market on the long side, think long and hard about what you own. There is no harm in sitting out of the stock market for a year or so to see what happens. After the 1929 crash, the investors that were in cash were in perfect position to buy assets on the cheap and in a few short years were multi-millionaires. Everyone else lost their shirts and spent the next decade crying in their beers.

As an aside, the quant incorporates a housing market indicator, based on ongoing economic data, and on Wednesday, 7/17/19, the model slips into a housing recession signal. The housing recovery began over 7 years ago but this proprietary indicator in the quant hierarchy says the housing party is over.

On the last trade, from June into mid-July, about 6 weeks or so in length, on the long side, the algo program gains +8% and the actual trading gains a big +11% (due to the long QQQ (tech) ETF). Keybot flipped out of QQQ and into QID. The benchmark SPX is up +19.666% this year, call it +20% from 2500-ish to 3000-ish, a 500-point-ish gain this year. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up an astounding +30%. Clearly, the Keybot the Quant algorithm is outperforming every quant model on Wall Street as well as most every high-paid strategist and analyst in the financial markets. Keybot is a smart robot.

This message is typed on Sunday evening on the US East Coast. US futures are trading. S&P's are up +1 call it flat. The market can go either way. Very simply, copper, volatility and commodities are the three main parameters currently dictating broad stock market direction.

The stock market bears need weaker copper and/or higher volatility to guarantee lower equities. Bears need CPER under 16.95 (now at 17.17) and/or VIX above 14.53 (now at 14.45). If 1 of the 2 parameters turn bearish, stocks will be in big trouble. If both turn bearish, stocks are going to be falling like rocks.

The stock market bulls need stronger commodities to prove that more upside in equities is on the way. Bulls need GTX above 2495 (now at 2452). The bulls are going to be driving the stock market strongly higher if commodities rally. If GTX flips bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play but the SPX would likely have to move above the 3006-ish level to cause Keybot to flip long.

You can see that the copper and volatility parameters are a game of pennies. Watch copper futures trading overnight since it will give you a heads up about the US stock market. Weaker copper is a huge feather in the bear's cap while strong copper will have the bulls cheering for victory.

VIX is only 8 cents from signaling bigtime stock market trouble. This is the key parameter to watch; VIX 14.53. It will tell you the market direction story ahead. Vol begins trading at 3 AM EST so that will provide a very important heads-up for US trading on Monday. Bears win big if the VIX pops above 14.53 but the bulls will remain very confident below 14.53. The beat goes on.

7/30/19; 10:00 AM EST =

7/28/19; 7:00 PM EST =

7/21/19; 7:00 PM EST = +74; signal line is +76

7/19/19; 10:00 AM EST = +74; signal line is +76

7/17/19; 11:21 AM EST = +74; signal line is +77

7/17/19; 10:43 AM EST = +58; signal line is +77

7/17/19; 10:12 AM EST = +72; signal line is +78; go short 3000; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +19.666%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +7.6%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +16.2%)(Actual results this trade = +11.0%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +30.4%)

7/17/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

7/17/19; 9:00 AM EST = +58; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

7/16/19; 1:29 PM EST = +70; signal line is +77 but algorithm remains long

7/16/19; 12:41 PM EST = +84; signal line is +77

7/15/19; 12:56 PM EST = +100; signal line is +77

7/15/19; 10:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +76

7/15/19; 10:12 AM EST = +100; signal line is +76

7/15/19; 10:02 AM EST = +84; signal line is +75

7/14/19; 7:00 PM EST = +100; signal line is +75

7/12/19; 3:42 PM EST = +100; signal line is +74

7/10/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +73

7/10/19; 7:45 AM EST = +70; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long

7/10/19; 7:03 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

7/9/19; 9:39 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

7/9/19; 4:13 AM EST = +56; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long

7/8/19; 10:43 AM EST = +70; signal line is +74 but algorithm remains long
7/8/19; 9:58 AM EST = +84; signal line is +74

7/7/19; 7:00 PM EST = +70; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long
7/5/19; 9:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +73 but algorithm remains long

7/2/19; 9:37 AM EST = +70; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

7/1/19; 2:54 PM EST = +84; signal line is +71

7/1/19; 2:41 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69

7/1/19; 2:30 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68

7/1/19; 2:16 PM EST = +70; signal line is +67

7/1/19; 1:26 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66

7/1/19; 1:11 PM EST = +70; signal line is +65

7/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +64
6/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +70; signal line is +62

6/28/19; 3:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +60

6/28/19; 2:42 PM EST = +56; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long

6/28/19; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +57

6/26/19; 10:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54

6/26/19; 9:55 AM EST = +86; signal line is +53

6/26/19; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +50
6/25/19; 2:24 PM EST = +72; signal line is +47

6/25/19; 1:25 PM EST = +86; signal line is +45

6/25/19; 1:16 PM EST = +72; signal line is +43

6/25/19; 11:19 AM EST = +86; signal line is +40

6/25/19; 10:27 AM EST = +72; signal line is +38

6/25/19; 9:39 AM EST = +86; signal line is +35
6/25/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +31

6/23/19; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +28

6/21/19; 12:21 PM EST = +56; signal line is +26

6/21/19; 10:49 AM EST = +70; signal line is +23
6/20/19; 3:59 PM EST = +56; signal line is +20

6/20/19; 3:02 PM EST = +70; signal line is +17

6/18/19; 10:02 AM EST = +56; signal line is +14

6/18/19; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +12

6/16/19; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +10
6/14/19; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +8

6/12/19; 9:43 AM EST = +40; signal line is +6

6/10/19; 9:38 AM EST = +56; signal line is +4

6/9/19; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +3

6/7/19; 9:51 AM EST = +40; signal line is +2

6/7/19; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is 0

6/4/19; 3:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 2:13 PM EST = +8; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 2:04 PM EST = +24; signal line is -2

6/4/19; 1:16 PM EST = +8; signal line is -2

6/4/19; 12:53 PM EST = +24; signal line is -3

6/4/19; 12:45 PM EST = +8; signal line is -3

6/4/19; 12:38 PM EST = -6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains long

6/4/19; 12:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 11:48 AM EST = +24; signal line is +1

6/4/19; 11:35 AM EST = +8; signal line is +1; go long 2788; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +11.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.6%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. Bulls need higher copper and commodities to continue the new all-time stock market highs and the SPX above 3K. Bears need higher volatility which will roll the stock market over to the downside and likely flip the model short. The SPX 2978 level is key for Friday trading; the S&P 500 begins the Friday session at 2996.

7/7/19; 7:00 PM EST =

7/5/19; 9:00 AM EST =

7/2/19; 9:37 AM EST = +70; signal line is +72 but algorithm remains long

7/1/19; 2:54 PM EST = +84; signal line is +71

7/1/19; 2:41 PM EST = +70; signal line is +69

7/1/19; 2:30 PM EST = +84; signal line is +68
7/1/19; 2:16 PM EST = +70; signal line is +67
7/1/19; 1:26 PM EST = +84; signal line is +66
7/1/19; 1:11 PM EST = +70; signal line is +65
7/1/19; 9:36 AM EST = +84; signal line is +64
6/30/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +70; signal line is +62
6/28/19; 3:25 PM EST = +70; signal line is +60
6/28/19; 2:42 PM EST = +56; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains long
6/28/19; 10:00 AM EST = +70; signal line is +57
6/26/19; 10:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +54

6/26/19; 9:55 AM EST = +86; signal line is +53

6/26/19; 9:36 AM EST = +70; signal line is +50
6/25/19; 2:24 PM EST = +72; signal line is +47

6/25/19; 1:25 PM EST = +86; signal line is +45

6/25/19; 1:16 PM EST = +72; signal line is +43

6/25/19; 11:19 AM EST = +86; signal line is +40

6/25/19; 10:27 AM EST = +72; signal line is +38

6/25/19; 9:39 AM EST = +86; signal line is +35
6/25/19; 9:36 AM EST = +72; signal line is +31

6/23/19; 7:00 PM EST = +56; signal line is +28
6/21/19; 12:21 PM EST = +56; signal line is +26
6/21/19; 10:49 AM EST = +70; signal line is +23
6/20/19; 3:59 PM EST = +56; signal line is +20

6/20/19; 3:02 PM EST = +70; signal line is +17
6/18/19; 10:02 AM EST = +56; signal line is +14
6/18/19; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +12
6/16/19; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +10
6/14/19; 10:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +8

6/12/19; 9:43 AM EST = +40; signal line is +6

6/10/19; 9:38 AM EST = +56; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control.

6/16/19; 7:00 PM EST =
6/14/19; 10:00 AM EST =

6/10/19; 9:38 AM EST = +56; signal line is +4

6/9/19; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is +3

6/7/19; 9:51 AM EST = +40; signal line is +2

6/7/19; 9:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is 0

6/4/19; 3:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Tuesday at SPX 2788. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell promises easy money forever and the stock market catapults higher. The central bankers are the market. Banks leap higher.

The bulls need to keep XLF above 26.78 (now at 26.89) to keep the upside party going in the stock market. The bears need to push XLF below 26.78 which will immediately stop the stock market rally.

On the last trade, the Keybot program gains +1.5%. The actual trading gains +1.3% and is up over +19% on the year thus far outperforming the SPX; the benchmark S&P 500 is up +11.2% this year. Keybot exits RWM and enters QQQ.

6/9/19; 7:00 PM EST =

6/7/19; 10:00 AM EST =

6/4/19; 3:09 PM EST = +24; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 2:13 PM EST = +8; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 2:04 PM EST = +24; signal line is -2

6/4/19; 1:16 PM EST = +8; signal line is -2

6/4/19; 12:53 PM EST = +24; signal line is -3

6/4/19; 12:45 PM EST = +8; signal line is -3

6/4/19; 12:38 PM EST = -6; signal line is -2 but algorithm remains long

6/4/19; 12:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is -1

6/4/19; 11:48 AM EST = +24; signal line is +1

6/4/19; 11:35 AM EST = +8; signal line is +1; go long 2788; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +11.2%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +1.5%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.6%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.4%)

6/4/19; 11:32 AM EST = +8; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains short

6/4/19; 11:03 AM EST = -6; signal line is +4

6/4/19; 10:46 AM EST = -20; signal line is +6

6/4/19; 10:32 AM EST = -6; signal line is +8

6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +10

5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +12
5/31/19; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is +15

5/30/19; 3:51 PM EST = -6; signal line is +17
5/30/19; 3:41 PM EST = -20; signal line is +18

5/29/19; 3:40 PM EST = -6; signal line is +19

5/29/19; 1:53 PM EST = -20; signal line is +21

5/29/19; 1:10 PM EST = -6; signal line is +23
5/29/19; 11:20 AM EST = -20; signal line is +24
5/28/19; 3:59 PM EST = -6; signal line is +27

5/28/19; 10:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +29

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST = +8; signal line is +31

5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32

5/23/19; 2:34 PM EST = -6; signal line is +33

5/23/19; 2:26 PM EST = +8; signal line is +34

5/23/19; 2:13 PM EST = -6; signal line is +35

5/23/19; 1:28 PM EST = +8; signal line is +37

5/23/19; 1:19 PM EST = -6; signal line is +38

5/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +40

5/23/19; 9:30 AM EST = +38; signal line is +41; go short 2829; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +12.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the new week of trading begins. The bears are running the show with the algo number 30 points below the signal line. The stock market direction ahead can be boiled down to a battle between the SPX index and utilities.

Bears need UTIL below 760 (now at 784) which will usher in market carnage. If the 760 fails, that is bad enough, but if 742 fails, that opens a potential trap-door for equities and the US stock market may crash.

Bulls must keep UTIL elevated with all their might and at the same time push the SPX index above 2779-2782 as soon as possible (the week begins at 2752) to end the market selling. So bulls need 30 spoo's and S&P futures are trading down -12 about 6-1/2 hours before the opening bell for the US session.

If SPX remains below the key 2779-2782 (creating market weakness), and UTIL remains above 760 (creating market lift), status quo, the stock market will chop sideways with a slight downward bias.

The bulls will prove they can stop the selling and create a rally if they keep utilities elevated, push the SPX above 2779-2782, push NYA above 12470 and push VIX below 14.83. All these parameters directly impact stock market direction. If any one of the SPX, NYA and VIX parameters flip bullish, consider the caution flag out. If 2 of the 3 flip bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play for Keybot the Quant.

The VIX begins trading and pops to 19.41. S&P futures -17. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The beat goes on.

6/9/19; 7:00 PM EST =

6/7/19; 10:00 AM EST =

6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +10

5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short printing a couple numbers on Thursday and a couple more on Friday including the pre-scheduled number. The bears remain in control with the algo number 32 points below the signal line.

Commodities tank bigtime hinting that a disinflationary and deflationary vibe is in play (think recession). The SPX lost the critical 2779-2782 level so it was lights out. Goodnight Irene, Irene goodnight.

The utilities are the last man standing. Bears would be in better shape if the utes rolled over ahead of the broad stock market. Utilities have been soft during the market softness but do not show the weakness expected that would lead to a multi-month decline for the broad stock market. Bears need the utes to collapse asap. Utes are holding up due to the drop in rates.

Bears will need weaker utilities to create market carnage and open the door to a potential crash scenario. Bulls need to keep utes elevated and jam the SPX above the 2779-2782 level as soon as possible. Each hour, each day, the S&P 500 remains below 2779 is another nail in the bull's long-term (weeks and months ahead) coffin.

The SPX loses -6.6% in May. Ouch. What a beating. That's gonna leave a mark.

6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +12

5/31/19; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is +15
5/30/19; 3:51 PM EST = -6; signal line is +17
5/30/19; 3:41 PM EST = -20; signal line is +18
5/29/19; 3:40 PM EST = -6; signal line is +19

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short and prints four numbers today. The SPX lost the 2781.50 level ushering in market mayhem. At the end of the day, however, the bulls push the SPX to 2783 above the critical 2781.50 bull-bear line in the sand.

The bears need SPX below 2781.50 which will create market carnage. The bulls need stronger commodities, banks and NYA index; GTX above 2539, XLF above 26.92 and NYA above 12473, respectively. If 1 of the 3 flip bullish, the caution flag will be out and if 2 of the 3 turn bullish the imminent turn to the long side notation will be in the title line.

For now, the bears rule the stock market with the algo number 25 points below the signal line. The bulls will recover if they can hold the SPX 2781.50 support. If 2781.50 fails, it is over for the stock market. Note that utilities are in collapse.

5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST =

5/29/19; 3:40 PM EST = -6; signal line is +19

5/29/19; 1:53 PM EST = -20; signal line is +21

5/29/19; 1:10 PM EST = -6; signal line is +23
5/29/19; 11:20 AM EST = -20; signal line is +24

5/28/19; 3:59 PM EST = -6; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo number turns negative and sits 33 points below the signal line. The NYA index failed into the bear camp during the last few minutes of trading on Tuesday; this is a serious negative stock market development. The NYA must regain the 12473 level (now at 12466) as soon as possible or the stock market will begin falling apart. Watch it at Wednesday's opening bell since it will immediately tell you the mood of the market.

The bears are cruising along after Memorial Day, 4-1/2 hours before the hump day opening bell, with the S&P futures down -19 and the VIX up to 18.57. The bears need the SPX below 2783 which is a major line in the sand for the stock market. If 2783 fails, all hope will be lost for the bulls and the bears will rule with an iron fist going forward. The SPX begins Wednesday at 2802. If the futures play out for the regular session, the S&P 500 would drop to 2783 on the opening bell. How do you like that? There is drama on tap this morning.

The bulls need NYA above 12473, XLF above 26.94 (now at 26.55) and GTX above 2540 (now at 2533); a higher NYSE Composite Index, higher banks and higher commodities, respectively. If any 1 of the 3 flip bullish, the caution flag will be out. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, the imminent turn to the long side will be in play for Keybot.

For now, the bears are pushing stocks lower and threatening a major stock market failure. NYA 12473 and SPX 2783 tell you everything you need to know about the stock market direction going forward.

Utilities have not failed as yet which hints that the bears may not have the oomph to create market carnage at this time. The utes typically move down coincidentally or before the broad stock market rolls over when a long extended sick market period is on tap. Thus, the bears need the utilities to immediately collapse to signal market carnage ahead. If utes hold up, the SPX may be able to hold the line at 2783 and recover. These scenarios are interesting to ponder but Keybot only sees 1's and 0's so time will tell the story.

6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST =

5/28/19; 3:59 PM EST = -6; signal line is +27

5/28/19; 10:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +29

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST = +8; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant is on the short side for the start of the four-day holiday-shortened trading week ahead. US markets reopen on Tuesday morning.

The bears need NYA below 12484 (now at 12581) to create stock market carnage.

The bulls need stronger banks and commodities and lower volatility to stop the stock market malaise. Bulls need XLF above 26.97 (now at 26.86), GTX above 2542 (now at 2504) and VIX below 14.80 (now at 15.85), respectively. Any one of the three will immediately halt the stock market selling and require the caution flag in the title line. If 2 of the 3 flip to the bull camp, consider the imminent turn to the bull side to be in play; Keybot will be in position to go long. If all 3 flip bullish, the stock market will be catapulting higher on its way to new records.

For now, the bears rule the stock market. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Tuesday morning shortly after trading begins for the shortened week and another number on Friday morning. The EOM occurs on Friday so May's trading ends and June's trading begins on Monday, 6/3/19. The monthly charts will have a new data point cast in concrete on Friday at 4 PM EST. The S&P 500 began the month of May at 2946 and is now at 2864.

The NYA index and banks will tell the story on Tuesday morning. Bears win bigtime if NYA drops below 12484. Bulls win bigtime if XLF moves above 26.97.

6/2/19; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

5/31/19; 10:00 AM EST =

5/28/19; 10:00 AM EST =

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST = +8; signal line is +31

5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short through the Memorial Day weekend. US stocks do not trade again until Tuesday morning, 5/28/19, at 9:30 AM EST. The quant idled through the Friday session without printing any numbers. The bears remain in control with the algo number 24 points below the signal line.

As mentioned in the previous post, XLF, VIX and GTX remain bearish, and the NYA index bullish, so the stock market chops along with more whipsaw slop. The bulls need stronger banks (XLF) to prove they have the beans to take the stock market higher. The bears need the NYA index to move lower which will signal major stock market trouble ahead.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =

5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at Thursday's opening bell at SPX 2829. Stocks were in free fall yesterday. Volatility spiked in the early hours painting a bleak picture for the day. The parameters mentioned in the previous post, banks, commodities and the NYA index, all fail, ushering in the broad stock market negativity.

Boiling it down to something simple to watch to gauge market direction, Friday will be a battle between the banks and NYA index. The bears need NYA below 12484 (now at 12525) which will create market carnage. The bulls need XLF above 26.96 (now at 26.65) to stop the downside slide in equities.

The bulls need the VIX below 14.80 (now trading at 15.95) which will stop the stock market selling and begin a big rally. GTX above 2542 (now at 2477) will also create stock market upside. If XLF, VIX or GTX join the bull camp, any one would do, consider the caution flag to be out. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn back to the long side to be on tap. If NYA fails, it is over for the stock market. If XLF, VIX and GTX remain bearish, and NYA remain bullish, the stock market will chop sideways with an upward bias. S&P futures are up 19 about 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell. 

In the last trade, that was only a couple days in these whipsaw, choppy markets, the quant program loses -1.1% and the actual trading loses -1.4%. Despite the negativity, the benchmark S&P 500 remains +13% higher on the year. The Keybot the Quant algo actual trading outperforms up +18% on the year thus far. Keybot exits IWM and enters RWM remaining in the 1x non-leveraged ETF's (the quant will remain in 1x ETF mode at least until mid-June due to the whippy, erratic and unstable markets).

Today is the last day of trading in US markets until Tuesday due to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =

5/23/19; 3:24 PM EST = +8; signal line is +32

5/23/19; 2:34 PM EST = -6; signal line is +33

5/23/19; 2:26 PM EST = +8; signal line is +34

5/23/19; 2:13 PM EST = -6; signal line is +35

5/23/19; 1:28 PM EST = +8; signal line is +37

5/23/19; 1:19 PM EST = -6; signal line is +38

5/23/19; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +40

5/23/19; 9:30 AM EST = +38; signal line is +41; go short 2829; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +12.8%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.4%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.1%)

5/23/19; 3:06 AM EST = +38; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long

5/22/19; 2:29 PM EST = +52; signal line is +40

5/22/19; 12:30 PM EST = +38; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long

5/22/19; 12:01 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38

5/22/19; 10:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +36

5/22/19; 10:26 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35

5/22/19; 6:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34

5/22/19; 5:31 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35

5/21/19; 2:54 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35

5/21/19; 2:40 PM EST = +54; signal line is +37

5/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37; go long 2859; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is on the long side but champing at the bit to go short. The aglo number is 2 points below the signal line and the quant will likely flip short at Thursday's opening bell if the SPX drops below 2851, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. S&P futures are tanking -20 points and the VIX spikes above 15.80 about 5 hours before the opening bell for the US regular trading session. A lot can happen over the coming hours and President Trump may try to save the stock market with happy trade talk.

The bears will growl if the VIX remains above 14.78. The bears will slash deeper if XLF drops below 26.96 (watch this in the pre-market and at the opening bell since the banks will tell you a lot about stock market direction). The selling will intensify and stocks will be falling like rocks if GTX loses 2545 and/or NYA drops below 12486.

The bulls need to push volatility (VIX below 14.78) lower pronto. The bulls will also benefit and hold off the bears if they can push RTH above 105.50. The beat goes on.

Typically, the stock market floats higher the two days before a three-day holiday weekend but traders are in a bad mood this morning. The US stock market is closed on Monday for the Memorial Day holiday.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =

5/23/19; 3:06 AM EST = +38; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long

5/22/19; 2:29 PM EST = +52; signal line is +40

5/22/19; 12:30 PM EST = +38; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long

5/22/19; 12:01 PM EST = +52; signal line is +38

5/22/19; 10:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +36

5/22/19; 10:26 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35

5/22/19; 6:48 AM EST = +38; signal line is +34

5/22/19; 5:31 AM EST = +52; signal line is +35

5/21/19; 2:54 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bull camp at SPX 2859 after this morning's opening bell. The banks create the market joy. Retail stocks then joined the upside party in the afternoon but rolled over. The bulls are in charge again with the algo number 3 points above the signal line.

Today was a battle between banks, retail stocks and volatility. Since retail earnings are looking sick afterhours, the banks and volatility should rule the roost and control the broad stock market direction on Wednesday.

The bulls need VIX below 14.78 (now at 14.95) to create strong stock market upside. The VIX came down to kiss this level but could not break through on the first try. There will likely be drama at VIX 14.78 tomorrow. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST.

The bears need XLF below 26.99 (now at 27.19) to turn the stock market south again and position Keybot for a flip back to the short side. The bears will also benefit if they keep retail stocks weak with RTH below 105.50 (now at 105.23 causing market negativity). If RTH moves above 105.50, the bulls will be singing songs of joy.

Thus, the stock market moves higher if VIX drops below 14.78 and/or RTH above 105.50. The market moves lower if XLF drops below 26.99. If volatility and retail stocks remain bearish, and banks remain bullish, status quo, the stock market will keep chopping sideways. If XLF turns bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back in play.

On the last trade, the algo program gains almost a half-percent. The actual trading gains over +1% due to the good fortune of being in a short tech ETF. It just happened to be the next one in the que. Sometimes this stuff can go the other way. The benchmark S&P 500 is up +14% this year and the Keybot the Quant algorithm is outperforming up nearly +20%. Keybot exits PSQ and enters IWM. Banks and volatility are what matters for hump day. The erratic, unstable, whipsaw price action continues.

5/26/19; 7:00 PM EST =

5/21/19; 2:54 PM EST = +38; signal line is +35

5/21/19; 2:40 PM EST = +54; signal line is +37

5/21/19; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +37; go long 2859; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.0%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +8.2%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +19.5%)

5/19/19; 7:00 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37

5/17/19; 3:07 PM EST = +22; signal line is +37

5/17/19; 12:45 PM EST = +38; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short

5/17/19; 12:10 PM EST = +22; signal line is +38; go short 2870; (Benchmark SPX for 2019 = +14.5%)(Keybot algorithm program this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2019 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual trading results for 2019 = +18.2%)