STOCK MARKET BULLISH - LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the markets remain Crazy.  The quant rattles off 13 numbers today including the pre-scheduled number and remains long with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. The imminent turn remains in play for a whipsaw back to the short side. Volatility was, well, volatile, today. The VIX jumps on the Crazy Train. All aboard.

Keybot is tracking VIX 27.56 as a key bull/bear line in the sand. If VIX moves above 27.56 (now at 26.46), and if the SPX falls below 3329, Keybot will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The stock market is a coin-toss.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker utilities. Bears need UTIL under 793 for all of next week. Bulls will receive strength if they push UTIL above 827 tomorrow or above 793 any day next week.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow one-half hour after the opening bell on Wall Street.

9/20/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST =
9/17/20; 3:15 PM EST = +34; signal line is +21
9/17/20; 3:07 PM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
9/17/20; 2:49 PM EST = +34; signal line is +20
9/17/20; 2:35 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:36 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:21 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 1:01 PM EST = +34; signal line is +20
9/17/20; 12:16 PM EST = +20; signal line is +19
9/17/20; 9:57 AM EST = +34; signal line is +17
9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST = +20; signal line is +16
9/17/20; 4:55 AM EST = +20; signal line is +17
9/17/20; 4:29 AM EST = +34; signal line is +18
9/17/20; 3:06 AM EST = +20; signal line is +18
9/16/20; 2:40 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19; go long 3429; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +29.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +8.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +51.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the  long side this afternoon at SPX 3429. Fed Chairman Powell promises easy money forever. The algo wanted to flip long at the start of trading and commodities turn bullish providing more upside fuel. It was not until the afternoon, however, when all the internal parameters latched that the move ot the long side occurs. Humorously, the SPX then promptly fell on its sword collapsing into the closing bell.

Commodities, volatility and utilities are running the show. Bulls need UTIL above 827 to guarantee upside happiness for stocks. UTIL is at 815. For next week, the 827 does not matter but 793 does. Thus, the bears have to push utes lower over the next couple days below UTIL 793 to prove that they can send stocks lower next week.

Bears need VIX above 27.54 which will tell you loud and clear that the downside is occurring in equities. Bears also need weaker commodities; GTX below 1720.

On the last trade that ran for 2 weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains about +8%. For the year, the S&P 500 benchmark index, the US stock market, SPX, is up +6.1%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +29% and the actual trading, generated by Keybot, is up a huge +51%. Let's see if the robot gives anything back during the final 3-1/2 months. Keybot exits QID and enters SSO.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell. As always, watch for a potential whipsaw. 

9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST =

9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

9/16/20; 2:40 PM EST = +34; signal line is +19; go long 3429; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +6.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.3%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +29.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = +8.2%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +51.0%)

9/16/20; 10:07 AM EST = +34; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains short

9/15/20; 12:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short
9/15/20; 10:09 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21

9/11/20; 3:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +23

9/11/20; 3:06 PM EST = +4; signal line is +24

9/11/20; 2:38 PM EST = +20; signal line is +26

9/11/20; 2:20 PM EST = +4; signal line is +27

9/11/20; 1:09 PM EST = -10; signal line is +29

9/11/20; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +31

9/11/20; 10:02 AM EST = +6; signal line is +33

9/11/20; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +35

9/10/20; 1:45 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36

9/10/20; 1:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +38

9/10/20; 10:51 AM EST = +6; signal line is +40

9/10/20; 10:43 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42

9/10/20; 10:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +43

9/10/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +44

9/10/20; 9:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +46
9/9/20; 9:38 AM EST = +22; signal line is +46
9/9/20; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +46
9/8/20; 2:42 PM EST = -10; signal line is +47

9/8/20; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49

9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +51
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +51

9/3/20; 11:11 AM EST = +36; signal line is +52

9/3/20; 10:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +52; go short 3511; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +8.666%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.7%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +26.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = +15.9%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short, but is champing at the bit to go long, as stocks float higher into the Fed decision and press conference tomorrow. The algo number and signal line are both at +20. The model prints two numbers today.

If the SPX moves above 3419, Keybot will likely flip long. Bulls need the S&P 500 to move steadily higher and not gap-up which may delay the potential move to the long side.

UTIL 826.52 and 829.62 are key lines in the sand and the utilities came up to test these levels, and failed.Bulls need UTIL above 827 and 830 which will create strong upside and keep equities buoyant into year-end. Bulls also need GTX above 1718 to receive more fuel. Bulls are poised to take over tomorrow since the quant is already in position to go long without utes or commodities.

Bears need weaker banks and higher volatility. Bears need XLF below 24.55 and VIX above 27.53 which will create immediate selling pressure on the stock market. The Powell show is coming to town tomorrow.

9/20/20; 7:00 PM EST =

9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST =

9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

9/15/20; 12:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains short

9/15/20; 10:09 AM EST = +36; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. Right on cue overnight, the semi's and banks are pumped higher on happy deal and partnership talk. The quant idled along today and did not print any numbers. The SPX leaps +1.3% higher but the algo yawns. It's just another one of the Strange Days. 

Stocks gapped-up at the opening bell but Keybot did not bite. It does not mean that the robot is right it only means that it wants to see a little more bull verification. The Federal Reserve 2-day meeting begins tomorrow with Chairman Powell pontificating on Wednesday afternoon. Stocks are typically up about 80% of the time for the day or two going into a Fed meeting.

Bulls need UTIL above 827 and GTX above 1718, stronger utilities and commodities, respectively. The bulls made a bit of headway on both today but cannot yet cross the finish line. Upside fuel will be provided for stocks if the bulls can pump these two parameters higher. If either parameter joins the bull camp, and SPX moves above 3403, Keybot will likely flip long. Also watch the SOX to see if it jogs across the 2135 level as previously explained.

Bears need SOX below 2135, XLF below 24.55 and VIX above 27.60, weaker chips and banks and higher volatility, respectively. SOX was up on the NVDA deal but only a couple percent. Semi's used to soar to the moon on happy news for the sector. Banks will be impacted by the Fed talk. If one of the 3 parameters fail, stocks will take a noticeable dip lower to a new level. If two fail, stocks are in for an extremely ugly day. If all three fail, big trouble ahead, no one will know where the bottom is, panic will begin to fill the air.

Watch utes. If UTIL moves higher, the bulls mean business; they are not only trying to create short-term fuel for the stock market but also guarantee a happy finish into year end. If UTIL drops below 793, the stock market is in big trouble. If UTIL falls below 750 anytime over next 3 weeks, there is a high probability that the stock market will crash.

Tuesday may be a holding pattern day as global traders await Pope Powell to bring the Holy tablets down from on high on hump day and tell everyone how to trade.

9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo was active on Friday printing 8 numbers. The chips and volatility are the two most important parameters impacting stock market direction currently so that is what you want to watch on Monday. The bears are in control but the algo number is only 1 point below the signal line, hence the imminent turn to the bull side is in play.

Bulls need stronger utilities and must push UTIL above 827 this week beginning at 8 hundo. This is a tall order but doable. Next week, the UTIL 827 no longer matters and instead 793 will be the key line in the sand. Therefore, bulls need UTIL to move higher and at a minimum remain above 793 by week end. Utes are a gauge for how bad the stock market selloff will be. As equities move lower, if UTIL remains above 793 over the next three weeks, the bears do not have much gusto and the selling event will end and a nice strong relief rally will follow. If, however, utes keep dropping, and UTIL goes sub 793 and in a week or two travels sub 750-760, the stock market will begin trailing significantly lower into year end and a crash will be on the table.

Bulls need stronger commodities and to push GTX above 1720. The bulls have a tough road ahead to pump those utes and commodities higher, therefore, the hoofed ones will probably focus on jogging the semiconductors.

Bears need SOX under 2133 (now at 2136) and the stock market will take a significant leg lower. This story will be told at the opening bell. Watch the chips in the pre-market. If 2133 fails, stocks are toast. If 2133 fails, but a few minutes later or a half hour or hour later, price comes back above, and then after a little bit, falls back below 2133 (jogging), that tells you the bulls are gathering strength to start a relief rally.

If the SOX is jogged once or twice across the 2133 line in the sand, and then begins moving higher and higher above 2133, and if the SPX then moves above 3367, Keybot will likely flip long.

Bears need weaker banks and to push XLF below 24.52 (now at 24.71) which will create market carnage. Bears need higher volatility and must push VIX above 28.11 (now at 26.87 creating bullishness) to guarantee selling pressure ahead.

Thus, bulls need stronger utes, commodities, chips and banks and lower volatility. Maintaining SOX above 2133 will keep the bulls at bat (stocks will move sideways with a slightly higher bias).

Bears need weaker utes, commodities, semi's and banks and higher volatility. SOX losing the 2133 level would be the bears ticket to glory on Monday (stocks will drop like rocks). These are historic times. If you are new to trading, markets or economics, you are witnessing rare stuff occurring. If chips and banks both fail out of the gate tomorrow, a Black Monday may be on tap.

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Thursday morning and the other on Friday morning. Watch the chips closely on Monday. Listen for any news concerning semiconductors out of Asia and Europe overnight. Also the banks.

9/20/20; 7:00 PM EST =

9/18/20; 10:00 AM EST =

9/17/20; 9:00 AM EST =

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST = +20; signal line is +21

9/11/20; 3:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +23

9/11/20; 3:06 PM EST = +4; signal line is +24

9/11/20; 2:38 PM EST = +20; signal line is +26

9/11/20; 2:20 PM EST = +4; signal line is +27

9/11/20; 1:09 PM EST = -10; signal line is +29

9/11/20; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +31

9/11/20; 10:02 AM EST = +6; signal line is +33

9/11/20; 9:51 AM EST = +20; signal line is +35

9/10/20; 1:45 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues. The SPX drops almost -100 points intraday. Keybot prints 7 numbers in the Thursday session. Bears remain in control of the market direction with the algo number 30 points below the signal line.

Utilities failed out of the gate on Thursday. UTIL was at the 818 palindrome at 3:30 PM EST Wednesday afternoon and tumbles to 796. This is serious business. Utes tell you if a pull back in the markets is garden-variety selling, or, if it is something more deadly that will linger for weeks and months ahead. Currently, the 0's and 1's say the stock market is likely in serious trouble. Bulls need UTIL above 827 next week so watch to see if they can rally the sector. For the week of 9/21/20, UTIL must be above 793 to help the bulls. If UTIL falls below 793 today, or next week, and trends lower, stocks may crash.

Volatility was the main show on Thursday. VIX 28.15 is the bull-bear line in the sand and volatility kept testing this level during the session. Isn't it amazing that the quant can call out these numbers before they occur? If you are not impressed, you should be. Enjoy it while the information is posted for you; someday it may not. The bears win in the end with the VIX ending at 29.71. Well look at that. As this is typed, about 4 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street for the Friday session, S&P futures are up +33 with the VIX at 28.20. The bulls are pushing but this is not good enough. Bulls need VIX below 28.15 and to remain below if they want to rally stocks.

Bears need VIX to remain above 28.15 and UTIL to remain below 807 for today. Bears need SOX below 2132 and XLF below 24.51. Thus, bears want higher volatility and lower utes, chips and banks.

Bulls need VIX to drop below 28.15 and remain below and they are pushing for that as this message is typed. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. Bulls need UTIL above 807 for today. Higher commodities would also help bulls if GTX moves above 1721. Bulls need SOX to remain above 2132 and XLF to remain above 24.51. Thus, bulls need lower volatility and stronger utes, commodities, semiconductors and financials. If 2 of the 3 parameters (VIX, UTIL, GTX) turn bullish, and the SPX moves above 3426, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If any 1 parameter flips bullish consider the imminent turn to the upside to be in play. Bulls want to stay at the party a little longer but bears have different plans. Watch vol.

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST =

9/10/20; 1:45 PM EST = +6; signal line is +36

9/10/20; 1:25 PM EST = +20; signal line is +38

9/10/20; 10:51 AM EST = +6; signal line is +40

9/10/20; 10:43 AM EST = +20; signal line is +42

9/10/20; 10:30 AM EST = +6; signal line is +43

9/10/20; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +44

9/10/20; 9:07 AM EST = +36; signal line is +46
9/9/20; 9:38 AM EST = +22; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish with the algo number 24 points below the signal line. The bulls stage a big recovery. The 2-day move is a flash crash and flash spike. The bulls are front-running the ECB tomorrow. Whatever President Lagarde spouts tomorrow, the price action today hints that the ECB decision will create a flat or higher euro and weaker dollar.

The bulls do not want to give up the party. The stock market is Outtasite and Outta Mind. Bulls pumped the utes and chips out of the gate guaranteeing upside fun. Bulls needed lower volatility and it came down to test the quant's VIX 28.15 bull-bear line in the sand but only printed down to 28.17 and bounced (these target numbers are continuously recalculated in real-time). The bears held the line at VIX 28.15 which was important. Keybot probably would have flipped long if volatility would have dropped more today. Banks were buoyant so the bears could not gather more negative energy.

Bulls need weaker volatility, VIX below 28.15, and stronger commodities, GTX above 1721. Bulls likely need both to flip into the bull camp and for the SPX to move above 3425 to flip long. If the parameters turn bullish, consider the turn to the long side to be in play for the quant. If Lagarde sends the euro higher, the dollar moves lower, and commodities will rally, so this scenario can easily play out depending on Christine's comments at the presser. The bulls also need to push UTIL above 827 by Friday at 4 PM EST or they face problems next week.

Bears need weaker utilities out of the gate to prove they mean business. Bears need UTIL below 807 which will create immediate negativity in the stock market. If UTIL drops below 793, stocks will fall apart. Bears need weaker chips, SOX below 2131, and weaker banks, XLF below 24.51. Bears must keep VIX above 28.15.

Whittling it down to something more simple, watch VIX 28.15; it is for all the marbles. The VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST. The stock market continues lower as long as VIX remains above 28.15. Watch the UTIL 807 bull-bear line in the sand; bulls win above 807; bears win below 807.

Global traders await ECB President Lagarde to bring the tablets down from on high tomorrow morning and tell investors how to trade. Her decision on the euro impacts the US dollar inversely which will impact commodities, gold and the US stock market. DXY, or USD, the US dollar index, is at 93.26. Euro 1.1805.

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST =

9/9/20; 9:38 AM EST = +22; signal line is +46

9/9/20; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +46

9/8/20; 2:42 PM EST = -10; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls sh*t the bed and soiled the sheets after the Labor Day holiday. It may have been from that potato salad sitting out in the sun all day.

There is carnage on Wall Street. Note how UTIL came down to tag the 792-793 level, called out by the quant ahead of time (if you are not impressed that the robot can identify key levels before they occur, you should be), but bounced. UTIL continues creating negativity in the stock market below 807 this week but the breach of 792-793 will bring on a whole new world of hurt.

The chips are down today, literally and figuratively. SOX failed at 2130 so the blood bath was on. Commodities also failed with GTX through 1718. The stock market walked into an ugly forest and bumped into every tree. It is a beautiful day. Shoot to Thrill, play to kill. Take no prisoners. Show no mercy. Pull the trigger. It's fun.

The bears are in full control of the stock market direction with the algo number 57 points below the signal line. Bulls have a lot of work to do to plot their comeback.

There are a lot of moving parts the quant is tracking. To keep it simple for yinz to follow along, bears need weak banks, XLF below 24.51, and weak retail stocks, RTH below 143.51. UTIL below 793 will also help create more carnage and blood for the wealthy privileged class (that own 90% of the stock market).

Bulls need stronger chips, SOX above 2130, stronger utes, UTIL above 807, and lower volatility, VIX below 28.29, to save the day. Any one parameter will stop the selling. Two or all three will send stocks upwards again.

For hump day, it is a battle between banks and chips. Bears will rejoice if XLF fails at 24.51 since the blood will be flowing like water on Wall Street. Bulls will finally breathe a sigh of relief if SOX pops above 2130; it will at least allow the bulls a little time to regroup. Listen for any news on semiconductor companies and banks overnight.

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST =

9/8/20; 2:42 PM EST = -10; signal line is +47

9/8/20; 9:36 AM EST = +6; signal line is +49
9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as Americans enjoy the Labor Day holiday weekend. US markets are closed on Monday and reopen for trading on Tuesday morning. Bulls need stronger utilities and lower volatility to stabilize the stock market. Bears need to maintain lower utilities, higher volatility and send commodities lower to continue the market damage.

Bulls need UTIL above 806.92; call it 807 so it easy to remember (now at 804). If UTIL pops above 807, the stock market will stabilize and stop falling. Bulls then need to drive UTIL above 827 by Friday at 4 PM EST or there will be trouble.

The stock market selling will stop on a dime if the VIX falls below 28.49 (starting the week at 30.75). Bulls will throw confetti since the selling would end.

Bears need UTIL to remain below 807, if so, the caution notation will be dropped from the title line. Bears need UTIL under 8 hundo and then under 793. Serious damage will occur to stocks if UTIL trails lower and fails at 793. If UTIL then ventures lower and loses the 750-760 area, it is over for the stock market and it may go into crash mode.

Bears need VIX to remain above 28.49. If so, stocks will remain soggy and maintain a downward bias going forward. Bears would also benefit from GTX (commodities) dropping below 1722 (now at 1737). Stocks will take a strong dip lower if GTX fails. This is dollar dependent.

The US market begins trading on Tuesday. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers in the week ahead. If UTIL pops above 807, stocks stabilize, and if VIX drops below 28.49, the bulls are fine going forward. However, if UTIL keeps trailing lower from 804 and VIX remains above 28.49, there is sustainable trouble ahead for stocks. If GTX 1722 is lost, stocks will drop like rocks. The bulls are hoping that Everything's Gonna Work Out Right, but, sometimes it does not.

9/13/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST = +36; signal line is +51
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the Labor Day holiday weekend in the States. US markets are closed on Monday. Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number on Friday morning but did not print any numbers during the trading session. It is rare to see stocks flushed lower the two days before a holiday weekend; that never happens, until now. The VIX remains above the key 28.49 bull-bear line in the sand. VIX came down on Friday to within a  point but that was the best the bulls could do. The bears held their ground.

Next week, the holiday-shortened, 4-day trading week, utilities, volatility and commodities will be running the show. These three parameters control stock market direction currently. VIX 28.49 is key come Tuesday morning. Bears win above and bulls below. VIX will begin at 30.75.

Did you see UTIL finish at 804? As the Apollo 13 crew said, "Houston, we have a problem." The key bull-bear line in the sand for next week is UTIL 806.92 call it 807, that is close enough for gov't work. This tells you that stocks will be negative on Tuesday morning. However, if utilities spike higher at the opening bell, which the bulls must achieve, that will help to stabilize the stock market. The key level for UTIL is 827 the following week and 793 after that. In other words, bulls have to pump utes strongly over the coming days since they will need UTIL above 827 by Friday, 9/11/20, at 4 PM EST.

For next week, if UTIL remains below 807, immediate weakness will occur in the stock market. If UTIL runs above 807, the bulls are battling back and trying to stabilize the stock market and stop it from dropping further. The bulls will then set their sights on 827 by Friday and if they fail, they are in the same negative pickle again for the following week. If UTIL drops below 8 hundo, the stock market will be deteriorating. If UTIL drops below 793 early next week, it is likely lights-out for the stock market and things will get extremely ugly very quickly. If UTIL continues lower through the 750-770 area, the stock market may crash; it would at a minimum trail lower into year end. The caution flag remains out but this will probably disappear if UTIL remains below 807 on Tuesday morning.

9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +51

9/3/20; 11:11 AM EST = +36; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant algorithm flips short today at SPX 3511 at 10:50 AM EST. The stock market collapsed under its own weight. Volatility spiked higher granting legitimacy to the selloff.

VIX pops to 33.60 so stocks drop. The bulls must push the VIX below 28.666 to prove that they can regain control of the stock market. Each day the VIX is above 28.666, is another day that the bears will open up a can of whoop-*ss on the bulls.

Bears need weaker utilities, banks, commodities and copper; UTIL under 807, XLF under 24.45, GTX under 1725 and/or CPER under 17.83, respectively. The degree of stock market selling is correlated to these parameters. If one turns bearish, that is a push lower for stocks, if two fail, stocks will fall like rocks. If 3 or all 4 parameters fail, stocks are in crash mode. If the bulls can at least stop all four of these from occurring tomorrow, they will be able to stabilize the market and regain their footing next week.

UTIL finishes the day at the 808 palindrome. Remember at the start of the week the utes were highlighted and UTIL 807 is a key bull-bear line in the sand for next week. Watch this extremely closely since it tells you what will happen on Tuesday (Monday the markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday; all the flags are out flying high on the property). If UTIL finishes above 807 tomorrow, the bulls are going to recover next week. If UTIL finishes below 807 tomorrow, stocks are in serious trouble next week. If UTIL goes sub 800 that hints of equity sickness into year-end and if UTIL loses that 750-770 area and continues lower during September, the stock market will trend lower into year end and potentially crash.

Of course the bulls are going to try and push volatility lower to save the day. Fed Chairman Powell has his jackboots on and is wrestling Uncle Vix to the ground right now to step on his neck and keep volatility subdued. America's wealthy class must always be protected.

On the last trade, that ran for a month, it did seem to linger, the quant program gains +6% and the actual trading +16% courtesy of the long 2x QLD tech ETF. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 index is up +8.666%. Keybot the Quant algo program is up +27% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a huge +43% this year. Keybot exits QLD and enters QID.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning before the opening bell. S&P futures are down -28 at 7:44 PM EST on Thursday evening on the US East Coast. The beat goes on.

9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST =

9/3/20; 11:11 AM EST = +36; signal line is +52

9/3/20; 10:50 AM EST = +50; signal line is +52; go short 3511; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +8.666%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.7%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +26.9%)(Actual trading results this trade = +15.9%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +42.8%)

8/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +49

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +47

8/18/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46
8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +46
8/14/20; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46

8/13/20; 10:34 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46

8/13/20; 10:18 AM EST = +69; signal line is +45

8/13/20; 9:36 AM EST = +53; signal line is +45

8/12/20; 11:29 AM EST = +69; signal line is +45

8/11/20; 10:07 AM EST = +53; signal line is +43
8/9/20; 7:00 PM EST = +69; signal line is +43
8/7/20; 10:44 AM EST = +69; signal line is +41

8/7/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40

8/5/20; 9:37 AM EST = +53; signal line is +40; go long 3322; (Benchmark SPX for 2020 = +2.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2020 = +21.2%)(Actual trading results this trade = -6.0%; Actual trading results for 2020 = +26.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but continues champing at the bit to go short. The SPX is in melt-up mode printing a new all-time record high at 3588.11 and new all-time closing high at 3580.84. It is wild price activity. These are historic times.

If the SPX drops below 3535, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The S&P 500 will begin the Thursday session at 3581 so the bears have their work cut out for them.

The bulls goosed utilities bigtime today. The bulls know they must keep UTIL above 807 next week so they pumped it above 822 and UTIL closed at the 818 palindrome. This bullishness in utes is very helpful to the bull case for stocks going forward. Bulls need UTIL above 834 to keep the stock market elevated for weeks to come.

The bears need higher volatility and were pushing hard all day. You will never see the SPX up over +60 points while at the same time the VIX is strongly higher at one point above 27. That never happens so there is a disconnect that will be resolved going forward. VIX is at 26.57. Bears need VIX above the 28.03-28.35 area to prove that they can stop the stock market rally and create strong selling pressure.

Bulls need higher utilities and to definitely keep UTIL above 807 into next week. Bears need VIX above 28.35 and GTX below 1726 (lower commodities) to create stock market selling pressure.

9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The S&P 500 did not drop enough for Keybot to turn. The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3514.77. The bears are pushing hard with the algo number 1 point below the signal line, which is bearish, however, the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move to the bear camp.

To keep it simple, if the SPX drops below 3493 and trends lower on Tuesday, 9/1/20, the first trading day of September, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The S&P 500 begins Tuesday at 3500 so the bears need -7 negative points overnight in the S&P futures and they will be dancing.

Bulls need higher utilities. UTIL popped to 809 and was spanked back to 803. VIX popped to 26.41 but the bears need 28.35 which is the bull-bear line in the sand identified by Keybot.

Keybot prints the pre-scheduled number this evening to lock in the data for the month of August. The algo did not print any numbers during the session.

If the SPX drops below 3493, Keybot will likely flip short. If VIX pops above 28.35, it is over for stocks, they will be dropping like rocks. Bulls need to prevent the S&P 500 from falling below 3493, prevent volatility from moving any higher and push utilities higher.

Looks like on Tuesday, we will probably see what the bears got, or don't got. Perhaps the blood will be flowing by Tuesday Afternoon.

9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +50; signal line is +51 but algorithm remains long

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The algo number and signal line are both sitting at +50. The stock market is a coin flip as the SPX prints a new all-time high at 3509.23 and new all-time closing high at 3508.01 on Friday, 8/28/20. The S&P 500 crossed 3.4K last Monday and 3.5K on Friday. Equities are in a non-stop melt-up as the Federal Reserve and other central bankers promise to print money forever to keep stocks elevated. The quant has only printed the pre-scheduled numbers for the last two weeks. The price activity is jammed higher across the board.

For stocks to be printing new record highs day after day, the algo number should be 20, 30 even 40 points or more above the signal line instead the numbers are the same. There is likely something very bad about to happen to the stock market but Keybot only sees 1's and 0's so time will have to play out.

Stock market parameters are jammed into the upper stratosphere; the price moves are remarkable. It is an all-out buying frenzy after the dollar was jammed lower a couple weeks ago. The bulls need UTIL above 834 (now at 800) to prove that stocks should be moving higher and plan to remain elevated into year-end. Considering the new record highs, UTIL should be at 840, 850 and higher. Something is likely wrong under the surface.

The bears need UTIL below 763.93 this week, call it 764, for equities to drop and the stock market selling will be accelerating if it occurs. Note that UTIL at 8 hundo is exactly between the bull and bear case for the direction of stocks into year-end. But there is something else going on. UTIL must be above 806.92 next week (the 764-ish number will no longer matter), the holiday-shortened week of 9/8 to 9/11. UTIL is currently below this key number. The action of the utes will tell you a lot this week about the direction of the stock market in the near-term (hours, days and a few weeks) as well as intermediate term (weeks and months).

Bulls must pump utilities higher this week to keep the party going. Independent of achieving the 834, bulls must at a minimum push price above 807 by Friday at 4 PM EST, otherwise, there will be big trouble the following week. The pattern of utilities falling for three consecutive weeks is a very bearish development and predicts serious trouble for stocks going forward on an intermediate and long-term basis. Bulls must pump utes this week to save the day.

Bears need UTIL below 764 this week to lock-in market carnage going forward. Lower commodities and higher volatility will also aid the bears. VIX is at 22.96 and spiked to 27 on Friday. Keybot the Quant identifies VIX 28.92 as the key bull-bear line in the sand where carnage would accelerate.

It is amazing that stocks print new all-time highs but the algorithm just signaled that it wants to go short. That has never happened in the history of the quant. We are in special times. The S&P 500 starts the week at 3508 the record high.

If the SPX falls below 3484, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Watch this closely

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Monday evening and the other on Friday morning. Hold on to your hats. Things are getting dicey. If you see UTIL continuing to fall this week and ending the week sub 807, the stock market is in serious trouble going forward. The bulls may be able to keep the stock market boat afloat a bit longer if they can push utilities higher this week. These are exciting and very special times.

9/6/20; 7:00 PM EST =
9/4/20; 9:00 AM EST =

8/31/20; 7:00 PM EST EOM =

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST = +50; signal line is +50 but algorithm remains long

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +49

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48

Outage

The scenic Laurel Highlands in southwestern Pennsylvania was hit with severe storms and winds Thursday evening taking down cable and communications lines. All systems are operational again.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The banks were goosed after Fed Chairman Powell flapped his dovish wings. Of course they were. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3501.38 and new all-time closing high at 3484.55 both on Thursday, 8/27/20. The S&P 500 prints above 3.5K for the first time in history. The 3.4K hats are tossed in the trash and the "SPX 3.5K" hats are handed out at Party Town, where the bulls are gettin' down, havin' fun and foolin' 'round.

The quant continues to idle along as stocks keep floating skyward. UTIL is at 800. Bulls need UTIL above 834 to prove that all the euphoric bullish upside in equities is correct and more record highs are on the way. Bears need UTIL under 744 this week, or 764 next week. On Monday, UTIL will begin the week 36 points away from wreaking serious multi-month stock market trouble. At the same time, UTIL will be 34 points away from the bullish confirmation at 834. Interestingly, the direction that UTIL pivots from 800 will be very telling.

If UTIL continues to leak lower, the stock market is in trouble. If UTIL begins floating higher and higher day after day, that tells you the bulls may be able to keep stocks elevated into year-end. If UTIL loses 764 next week, or 807 the week of 9/8/20 (US markets are closed on 9/7/20 for Labor Day), the stock market is toast and equities will trend lower into year-end. Note that UTIL price is already below 807.

Since Pope Powell pumped the banks higher, the bears will likely focus attention on jamming volatility higher and utes lower. Bears need VIX above 29 and if this occurs, and the SPX drops below 3468, Keybot will likely flip short. Teh pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow morning.

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long during another sleepy week. Stocks continue growing to the sky with traders at fever pitch. The bullish euphoria leads into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech today at the virtual Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell will dictate the path of markets ahead. The central bankers are the market. 

The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction currently but the pre-scheduled number prints and narrows the bull call to only 2 measly points. Bulls need stronger utilities. UTIL is slip-sliding away now below 800. Bulls need UTIL above 834 for stocks to remain elevated and moving higher into year-end. Right now, utes are hinting that the opposite will happen. Bulls also need banks to remain strong.

Bears need weaker banks which is the top stock market parameter most impacting direction. Bears need XLF below 24.20 (now at 24.84) so this is a drop of over -2%. Remember, the model was focused on banks on Monday to begin the week, and then the bulls goosed the banks higher to keep equities elevated into the Powell main event today.

Bulls need UTIL above 834 which is a formidable task. Bears need XLF below 24.20 which is doable and will depend on what Pope Powell says. The closeness of the algo number and signal line tell you that the stock market is a toss-up. If XLF loses 24.20, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play immediately, and if the SPX then falls below 3444, it is likely that Keybot the Quant will flip short.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning shortly after the opening bell. Today may be a watershed day for the stock market. Powell has promised easy money forever so he had better keep shelling out that fiat gold that makes the wealthy filthy rich. The expectation is for a dovish Fed statement so any hesitance on Powell's part to not print money will create headaches for stocks.

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST = +50; signal line is +48

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +47

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The Fed wine is flowing like water. At the same time, President Trump is providing tasty vaccine and plasma cake snacks each day. The stock market grows to the sky. Tech stocks are at higher valuations than the dotcom bubble in 2000. The SPX prints a new all-time high at 3399.96 and new all-time closing high at 3397.16 both on Friday, 8/21/20. The bulls missed the 3.4K print by only 4 pennies so they show up with vengeance this morning pumping S&P futures +30 points higher.

The quant was sleepy last week only printing the prescheduled number and nothing else. The bulls remain in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 6 points above the signal line (which is not much).

The caution flag is out despite the daily new all-time record highs printing. The banks are key. Bears need XLF below 24.08 which will wreak havoc on the broad stock market. This represents about a -1% drop. The bulls are pumping banks in the pre-market with XLF up +0.7% so now the bears will need a -1.7% retreat to create negativity and the start of selling in the stock market. If XLF loses 24.08, consider the imminent turn to the bear side to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 3379, Keybot will likely flip short.

The bulls are floating along effortlessly higher since the central banks keep telling everyone they will print money forever. To extend the all-time record highs for several days and weeks ahead, the bulls have to push UTIL above 834.60. On an intermediate term basis, with UTIL at 809 right now, bulls need a huge push higher in utilities to prove that they will keep stocks elevated into year end. Each day that goes by and UTIL does not move above 834, is another day that it is far more likely that stocks will trail lower, perhaps far lower, into year-end. In a couple weeks, the utes will be a major focus again for the algorithm. UTIL is trending lower for the last couple weeks. This is a negative sign for the stock market. In nearly all major stock market down moves, UTIL either moves first to the downside or coincidentally with the broad stock indexes selling off. If utes keep trending lower, that is a very negative signal for stocks over the intermediate term (weeks and a few months ahead; into year-end).

Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and one on Friday morning. EOM is Monday, 8/31/20, next week so 6 trading days remain in the month. The US Labor Day holiday is late this year on 9/7/20 two weeks from now.

Watch the banks. They are all that matters today.

8/30/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/28/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/25/20; 10:00 AM EST =

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +47

8/18/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls keep slapping the bears around. The algo is idling along this week only printing the prescheduled number thus far. The bulls are in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 7 points above the signal line.

Utilities trend lower the last couple days so it is surprising that the SPX prints a new all-time high at 3395.06 and new all-time closing high at 3389.78 today, Tuesday, 8/18/20. The VIX collapses to 21.51 pumping stocks higher. Copper is experiencing more supply disruptions so the price goes to the moon which pumps the stock market higher.

There is a new development. The quant is now tracking banks as the key parameter impacting stock market direction. On a sleepy day, the banks come out of the shadows and display their fragility. Bears need XLF below 24.12 (now at 24.60) to create the start of market mayhem. This is a -2% drop so pay attention to any news hitting the wires concerning banks here forward. If bad news surfaces, you know the fix is probably in for the stock market and the long-anticipated top in the stock market will likely occur.

If XLF loses 24.12 tomorrow, Wednesday, 8/19/20, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play, and if the SPX drops below 3370, Keybot will likely flip short.

Bulls need stronger utes to prove that the new all-time highs are not a fluke. Bulls must push UTIL above 835 or they got buptkis. If UTIL remains bearish, and XLF remains bullish, status quo, the stock market will stagger sideways with a slight positive bias.

On hump day, the utilities face off against the banks to determine which way the stock market will go, two enter the cage match, but only one will exit. The banks may lead the stock market down. There's Winners and Losers every day in the big city.

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/18/20; 9:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46
8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the new week of trading is set to begin. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction with the algo number 7 points above the signal line.

Bulls need UTIL above 835.50 as fast as possible to prove that the stock market can still float upward.

Bears need to keep UTIL below 835.50 and dropping. Bears need CPER below 17.24. Monday will probably be a scenario where stronger utes will make the bulls win while weaker copper will make the bears win. If copper futures lose about -3%, and the SPX falls below 3326 trending lower, Keybot will likely flip short. Copper and utilities are the main drivers of stock market direction currently.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Tuesday morning. Markets remain erratic and unstable.

8/23/20; 7:00 PM EST =

8/18/20; 9:00 AM EST =
8/16/20; 7:00 PM EST = +53; signal line is +46

8/14/20; 10:00 AM EST = +53; signal line is +46