STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 5899 at the opening bell. The bulls are asking around if anyone saw that bus that hit them? Wow, it was quite a bed-sh*tting right out of the gate. Volatility spiked creating negativity for the stock market and then banks, retail stocks and chips all fell down the rabbit hole. They are now small when they used to be tall. White Rabbit.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 28 points below the signal line. The Fed is trying to drive volatility lower as this is typed to help stocks stabilize. Watch the VIX 16.97 line in the sand. Also XLF 48.60, RTH 225.55 and SOX 5056. All four metrics are in the crap hole so any one turning bullish will stabilize the stock market and stop the downward slide. If all four remain negative, the stock market will continue to deteriorate.

The quant likely needs at least 2 of the 4 metrics above to turn bullish to place the quant in position to go long. Watch volatility, banks, retail stocks and chips that are controlling stock market direction currently.

On the last trade that went by at a blink of an eye, the quant program and actual trading each lose a percent. For the year, with tomorrow the last day of trading in 2024, the SPX is up about +24%. The also program is up about +10% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up about +17%. Keybot exited SPY and entered PSQ.

UTIL is teasing towards the 955 Armageddon trap-door for stocks now down to 977.

1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2024 =
12/30/24; 9:30 AM EST = -32; signal line is -4; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +23.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +16.7%)
12/30/24; 5:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is -3
12/30/24; 5:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3
12/30/24; 4:50 AM EST = +16; signal line is -3
12/30/24; 4:32 AM EST = +30; signal line is -3
12/30/24; 3:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is -3
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:58 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 12:08 PM EST = +0; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 10:10 AM EST = +16; signal line is -1
12/24/24; 10:17 AM EST = +30; signal line is -1
12/23/24; 3:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is -1
12/23/24; 1:41 PM EST = +0; signal line is -1; go long 5961; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +25.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market continues chopping sideways. Chop suey. Friday morning was a bear trap where volatility was jammed higher and the banks failed at munch time sending stocks lower but thwack, banks were then pumped joyously higher and the Fed put its jackboot on the throat of volatility, so the US stock market recovered without any downside damage.

It is obvious that volatility and banks are the two key drivers of stock market direction currently. VIX 16.97 and XLF 48.60 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand. As vol and banks go, so goes the stock market. If both remain in the bull camp, stocks will remain buoyant.

Both parameters would likely need to flip into the bear camp to position the quant to want to go short. Thus, if bullish, you want to keep the VIX low and heading lower while also pumping banks higher. If bearish, you are stabbing banks and trying to push them down the cellar stairs while boosting the VIX higher. One side or the other will flinch and tell you the path forward for stocks.

If the bearish road is ahead, watch UTIL 952. If it fails, a trap-door opens for the US stock market and it will go into a crash profile. Have fun, everyone. The bears would benefit from weaker chips, retail stocks and commodities, but banks and volatility are the current highest priority for the quant.

Tuesday is New Year's Eve and the last day of trading for 2024. The first day of trading for 2025 is Thursday. The Keybot the Quant algorithm and robot will be rezeroed on Wednesday, New Year's Day, and start afresh for 2025. Keybot the Quant will log another successful year and has never had a down year.

VIX 16.97 (now at 15.95 creating bullishness) and XLF 48.60 (now at 48.75, goosed in the final minutes on Friday, creating bullishness) are all you need to watch to know where the stock market is headed. The bulls are comfortable and in charge with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. If either VIX or XLF turn bearish, the caution flag will be out and if both turn negative, the imminent turn to the downside will be in play. For now, the stock market party continues into the New Year. Come Dancing.

1/5/25; 7:00 PM EST =
12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY 2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:58 PM EST = +30; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 1:38 PM EST = +16; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 12:08 PM EST = +0; signal line is -2
12/27/24; 10:10 AM EST = +16; signal line is -1
12/24/24; 10:17 AM EST = +30; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long after a big up day on Christmas Eve. The bulls boosted the banks creating more upside fuel for the stock market. The Fed steps on the neck of volatility and stocks go to the moon. The wealthy class dances with glee. The bulls are in control of stock market direction currently with the algo number 31 points above the signal line. 

In the banks versus volatility contest, the banks are clearly the winner. XLF leaps to 48.99 while VIX collapses to at 14-handle. Bears have no hope unless XLF drops below 48.60 and/or VIX moves above 16.90. Bulls cannot expect anymore significant upside in the stock market from here unless they boost utilities and copper.

Watch the XLF 48.60 bull/bear line in the sand and also the direction of utes and copper. That will tell you everything you need to know. Merry Christmas. Have a Holly Jolly Christmas. Play music.

12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/24/24; 10:17 AM EST = +30; signal line is -1
12/23/24; 3:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is -1

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp yesterday afternoon at SPX 5961 after another crazy whipsaw session. Chips, retail stocks, commodities and volatility jump into the bull camp from munch time forward yesterday sending stocks strongly higher. The algo was at -46 in the morning and then only 3-1/2 hours later flipped long now at +14 only 15 points above the signal line.

Volatility flipped to the bull camp in the final minutes yesterday so obviously, the focus should be on the VIX 16.98 line in the sand. VIX is at 16.69 in the early morning hours on the East Coast so the bulls are dancing with S&P futures positive. Bears got nothing unless and until they push the VIX back above 17.

The bulls need higher utilities, banks and copper to create more upside joy. Utes and copper are preferring the bear bed for now. Watch the XLF 48.60 line in the sand that the robot is tracking. XLF is in the bear camp at 48.42 only 18 cents away from creating bull market rocket fuel.

Thus, bulls win today and stocks continue higher if XLF moves above 48.60. Bears win today if the VIX moves above 16.98. Banks versus volatility. Two enter the cage match but only one will exit.

On the last trade that ran for only 3 days, the quant program gains about a percent but the actual trading loses a percent. This happens once in a while where the direction was correct, to the downside, but the SH ETF was shunned due to the excessive bullishness in play. For the year, with only 5 trading days remaining, the SPX benchmark index is up +25% a repeat of the prior year. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +18% this year thus far. The quant is underperforming the benchmark index by 7 percentage points but no one is complaining. Keybot exited SH and entered SPY.

Merry Christmas. It is time to Jingle Bell Rock. The old days. The VIX is at 16.66, trip 6's, in the bull camp, and XLF is trading up 2 pennies to 48.44 in the pre-market, in the bear camp. The bears need 32 cents higher in vol (VIX) while the bulls need 16 cents higher in the banks (XLF). One of them will flinch. 

12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/24; 3:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is -1
12/23/24; 1:41 PM EST = +0; signal line is -1; go long 5961; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +25.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.7%)
12/23/24; 12:10 PM EST = -14; signal line is +0
12/23/24; 11:21 AM EST = -30; signal line is +2
12/23/24; 10:14 AM EST = -46; signal line is +3
12/23/24; 10:07 AM EST = -30; signal line is +6
12/23/24; 10:01 AM EST = -16; signal line is +8
12/23/24; 10:00 AM EST = +0; signal line is +10
12/23/24; 9:39 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is +14
12/20/24; 11:15 AM EST = -14; signal line is +16
12/20/24; 11:14 AM EST = -30; signal line is +18
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST = -44; signal line is +20
12/20/24; 9:36 AM EST = -44; signal line is +23
12/19/24; 10:40 AM EST = -28; signal line is +25
12/18/24; 3:16 PM EST = -14; signal line is +27
12/18/24; 2:52 PM EST = +2; signal line is +28
12/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +29; go short 6001; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +25.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +18.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls try to fight back on Friday. The bears are in control of the stock market direction with the algo number 28 points below the signal line. Retail stocks and commodities turned bullish on Friday creating the upside joy in the stock market.

Thus, bears need retail stocks and commodities to collapse back into the bear camp if they want to create market mayhem. Armageddon will be on tap if UTIL loses 950.

Bears need RTH below 227 and/or GTX below 3567. Both can easily flip bearish again which would wipe-out the entire impetus (a ten-dollar college word) for stocks rallying on Friday. Watch Scamazon. If RTH and GTX turn bearish again, and then UTIL loses 950, Goodnight Irene, Irene Goodnight.

Bulls want to build on Friday's gains and prove they got game and this will be apparent if they do not let RTH or GTX fall. Bulls need lower volatility, and higher banks and chips. These three metrics are causing the weakness in the US stock market currently (along with utes).

Bulls need VIX below 17.10 (watch this overnight), XLF above 48.85 and/or SOX above 5052. Bulls probably need at least 2 of the 3 to flip bullish to put the quant in position to flip long. If one parameter flips long, consider the caution flag out, if two turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to be in play, and if all three turn bullish, the bulls will be throwing confetti and singing songs as the SPX explodes higher.

Thus, for this holiday shortened Christmas week ahead, if you are bullish you are rooting for a collapse in volatility, and for banks and semiconductors to rally to the moon, and all is fine for a rosy finish to the year with a Santa Claus rally.

If you are bearish, you are rooting for a collapse in retail stocks and commodities so you want Scamazon, Walfart, and Costalotco to fail. If  the retail stocks and commodities weaken, the blood will flow on Wall Street for Christmas, and Santa will be beat-up in the alley way behind the dumpster, fighting for his life, that will be determined by UTIL 950.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week tomorrow morning. Markets are of course closed on Wednesday for Christmas. The stock market closes early at 1 PM EST on Tuesday for Christmas Eve. Bulls and bears are duking it out Rockin' Around the Christmas Tree with Brenda Lee.

12/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ4 EOY2024 =
12/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/23/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = -14; signal line is +14
12/20/24; 11:15 AM EST = -14; signal line is +16
12/20/24; 11:14 AM EST = -30; signal line is +18
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST = -44; signal line is +20
12/20/24; 9:36 AM EST = -44; signal line is +23
12/19/24; 10:40 AM EST = -28; signal line is +25
12/18/24; 3:16 PM EST = -14; signal line is +27

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild and crazy day yesterday. Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High that tell everyone how to trade but no one liked the inscription. A big selloff occurs in the stock market.

The quant flipped short last Monday, last week, and kept teasing a flip to the long side over the last week. The bears held the bulls at bay until yesterday morning when the internal parameters of the quant latched and the flip to the long side occurs. That did not last long; only about 4 hours. Banks failed after the Fed statement was released that cut by a quarter-point but also reduced the projected rate cuts for 2025 (that fuel the stock market higher). Volatility took off vertically like a rocket sinking the stock market and then semiconductors threw in the towel creating the bloodbath.

The robot flips back to the short side with a rare same-day whipsaw (this has occurred for the quant probably less than 10 times in the last 16 years). The bears are in charge with the algo number a huge 41 points below the signal line.

Bears need weaker utilities, commodities, and retail stocks to create more carnage. Bulls need higher banks and chips, and lower volatility, to stop the bloodbath.

Whittling it down to give you something to watch, it is a battle between chips and retail stocks. If the bulls can push SOX above 5070, they can stall the selling and create stabilization in the stock market, but MU sh*t the bed with earnings. Bears need RTH below 226.90 now less than a dollar away to guarantee more stock market weakness.

On the short trade that ran for 8 trading days from last Monday, everything was flat. On the last long trade that ran for a big 4 hours, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. For the year thus far, with less than 2 weeks of trading remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a huge +26% with back-to-back big up years. The quant program is up +10% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +19% lagging the benchmark by 7 percentage-points. On the flip to the bull side, Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO. On the whipsaw back to the short side, Keybot exited SSO and entered SH. The whipsaw occurs so the robot drops down into single ETF's for the next 30 days. The stock market may become choppy and the use of non-leveraged ETF's reduces risk until the choppiness passes.

Bears win with RTH below 226.90, GTX below 3567 and/or UTIL below 965. If utilities fail, the US stock market will likely go into a crash profile. Bulls can stop the selling with SOX above 5070 and/or XLF above 48.83. Bulls are on an island of hopeless despair indefinitely unless they can push the VIX back below 17.15.

12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/24; 3:16 PM EST = -14; signal line is +27
12/18/24; 2:52 PM EST = +2; signal line is +28
12/18/24; 2:45 PM EST = +16; signal line is +29; go short 6001; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +25.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.2%)(Actual results this trade = -2.0%; Actual results for 2024 = +18.7%)
12/19/24; 2:16 PM EST = +16; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
12/18/24; 10:34 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30; go long 6062; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +27.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.2%)(Actual results this trade = -0.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.7%)
12/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
12/17/24; 12:44 PM EST = +32; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
12/17/24; 9:57 AM EST = +18; signal line is +31
12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 1:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/11/24; 1:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 11:22 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/11/24; 10:59 AM EST = +16; signal line is +30
12/10/24; 10:02 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/10/24; 9:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/10/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/9/24; 3:49 PM EST = +18; signal line is +31; go short 6052; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +26.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market bounces to and fro. Chips jump into the bull camp on Friday creating market lift but by the end of the session, the SPX comes down to Earth sitting at 6051 where the quant went short on Monday. The week was a whole lot of nothing.

The robot identifies chips, copper and banks as controlling stock market direction currently.  Chips and banks are bullish creating market lift while copper is negative creating bearishness.

The bears need SOX below 5053 (that is about a -1.9% drop) and/or XLF below 48.80 (that is about a -1.5% drop) to create stock market negativity.

Keybot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number one measly point above the signal line. If the SPX runs about 28 points higher above 6079 on Monday, the quant will likely flip long. Bulls need CPER above 26.51 (that is about a +1.5% gain in copper futures) to create stock market positivity and a flip to the long side will be very likely.

Utilities failed last week that is a negative omen for the stock market going forward. UTIL needs to print above 1029 this week but it begins down at 1004. In addition, for next week, UTIL must be above 1054 to create stock market positivity a formidable task. The robot tracks two key utility metrics; the closing price from 15 weeks ago and the 50-week MA now at 949.

Watch the utilities closely. If UTIL continues to deteriorate lower, and loses the 949 level, be very afraid since it is likely that the US stock market will crash (-10%, or -20%, or -30% or a lot more in quick order). If the stock market sells off but UTIL does not lose 949, it will be a run-of-the-mill pullback of -3% to -5% and stocks will recover.

Commodities are also still in play. Bears need GTX below 3563 to create market mayhem. Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on hump day morning and the other on Friday morning.

Bulls can take control of stocks if SPX floats above 6079 and the upside will accelerate if CPER runs above 26.51 heading higher. Bears will maintain control of the stock market if SPX remains below 6079 and if copper remains negative. Bears will begin creating carnage if SOX loses 5053 or if XLF loses 48.80; bigtime carnage if both fail.

Very simply, weak copper futures overnight, and weakness in the chips and banks will be heaven for the bears. Bulls will throw confetti and celebrate a likely flip back to the long side if S&P futures are positive with copper rallying along with chips and banks. Choose your Poison but remember that Every Rose Has Its Thorn.

12/22/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/20/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/18/24; 9:00 AM EST =
12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/12/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 1:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number one point above the signal line. The crazy sawtooth pattern continues. If the SPX floats higher, moving up through the 6093-6110 range, a level somewhere in there, the robot will not know until it sees it, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Hence, the imminent turn notation in the title line.

The bulls pumped copper and commodities creating stock market joy. The bears keep the chips and utes in their camp creating a heavy weight upon the stock market. Thus, bears need to bash copper and commodities if they want to continue the move lower while bulls must exalt chips and utes to plot the course higher for stocks. Bulls pushed SOX higher into the closing bell but fell short of what they need.

As stated, bulls need SPX above 6093 moving higher for the quant to flip long. Bulls will receive bigtime juice from SOX 5045 and UTIL 1021. SOX begins tomorrow at 5028 a breath away from the bull camp and stock market ecstasy. If SOX moves above 5045, stocks will explode higher. If SOX cannot move above 5045, any stock market rally will fade, like last evening's nightmares, and stocks will reverse to the downside.

UTIL is down to 1004 a big drop and the talking heads on television do not even mention the pullback in utilities over the last couple weeks. It is a very bad omen going forward.

Bears need CPER below 26.52 and GTX below 3562 to create market mayhem. The lying communists (CCP) promise to provide stimulus for the umpteenth time creating lift in copper and commodities. CPER is at 26.58 so it is a game of pennies. As copper goes, and the chips above, so goes the stock market. GTX pops to 3616 so it will take work by the bears to bring the commodes back down.

So choose your poison. She is ready to flip long at SPX 6093 and higher and will receive rocket fuel with SOX 5045 and/or UTIL 1021. The bears will maintain control and create carnage with CPER below 26.52 and/or GTX below 3562. Easy peasy.

Boiling it down as far as possible, like searching for Einstein's simple one-inch equation that explains the entire universe, the stock market is simply chips versus copper. That is it.

Bulls will catapult to victory, stampeding the bears, with SOX 5045 (any positivity in semiconductors) while bears will rejoice and celebrate, with bull blood on their claws, with CPER 26.52 (any negativity in copper).

Tom Waits just turned 75 years young. The poet is always riding that Downtown Train along with every other musician that covers his great song.

12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/11/24; 1:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/11/24; 1:11 PM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/11/24; 11:22 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/11/24; 10:59 AM EST = +16; signal line is +30
12/10/24; 10:02 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/10/24; 9:42 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31
12/10/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains short
12/9/24; 3:49 PM EST = +18; signal line is +31; go short 6052; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +26.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side a few minutes before the end of today's trading session at SPX 6052. Earlier in the day, copper, commodities and chips create upside excitement but then the chips, commodities and utilities failed causing the slide in the stock market and flip to the short side. The algo number is only 13 points below the signal line so the bears need more separation to prove they got what it takes to extend losses.

Bears need weaker copper. Bears need CPER below 26.52, only pennies away, and that will open the floodgates for downside selling in the stock market. Bulls must keep copper futures positive by all means necessary. Negative copper futures means trouble ahead. As copper goes, so goes the stock market.

The bulls have three parameters that can put them back into the top spot right away. Utes failed late in the day so they would be first to reverse. Commodities and chips are also in the bear camp. Bulls need UTIL above 1020.86, which is only a buck-fifty away, or SOX above 5045, which is only 27 points away, and/or GTX above 3561 only 4 points away. These 3 parameters are dancing on the head of a pin, along with copper, and dictating the direction of the US stock market.

If you are bullish, you need stronger utilities, semiconductors and commodities. If you are bearish, you need any amount of red in the copper futures. The bears can easily reverse the quant since the 3 metrics above are only marginally bearish, so it will be interesting to see how the week progresses.

On the last trade, that ran for 2-1/2 weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant gains about +3%. For the year, with only about 3 weeks remaining, the SPX is up a huge +27%. Oh my. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +11% and the actual trading has gained +21% this year but still lagging the benchmark by 6 percentage-points. No one is complaining about a +21% gain, however. Perhaps there are some surprises still ahead for 2024? Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/24; 3:49 PM EST = +18; signal line is +31; go short 6052; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +26.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +11.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +20.8%)
12/9/24; 1:38 PM EST = +34; signal line is +31
12/9/24; 11:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +31
12/9/24; 9:47 AM EST = +64; signal line is +30
12/9/24; 9:45 AM EST = +50; signal line is +29
12/9/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 12:10 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 11:16 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 10:06 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/5/24; 1:26 PM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/4/24; 11:13 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
12/3/24; 11:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
12/3/24; 11:33 AM EST = +48; signal line is +26
12/3/24; 10:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
12/3/24; 10:03 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 2:59 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/2/24; 2:14 PM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 11:34 AM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 11:48 AM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26
11/26/24; 12:03 PM EST = +18; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
11/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
11/25/24; 12:43 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 12:09 PM EST = +32; signal line is +30
11/25/24; 12:02 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/25/24; 11:20 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
11/24/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/22/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/21/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26; go long 5950; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +24.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market bounces along like a ping-pong ball. The robot keeps teasing a turn to the short side but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move and then the bulls win the day again keeping the bears at bay. The algo number is only 6 points above the signal line.

On Friday, 12/6/24, the SPX prints a new all-time historic high at 6099.97 and new all-time closing high at 6090.27. It stopped 3 pennies short of 6100.

The stock market is moving because of bearish copper and commodities, and bullish chips and utilities. Nothing else matters. For the bulls to continue the upside party of new record highs, higher copper and commodities are needed. The bulls need CPER above 26.56 and/or GTX above 3562. Watch copper futures overnight since a +1.6% rally is needed in the red metal to open the door to an end of year rally for stocks. Bulls got nothing if they cannot rally copper and commodities.

The bears need weaker semiconductors and utes to create stock market negativity. Bears need SOX below 5046 and/or UTIL below 1020.86. SOX begins the week at 5061 so it is a coin-flip as to which way she will go. If either parameter turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 6080, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Consider the imminent turn to be in play if chips or utes turn negative.

Utilities need further discussion. They were talked about a few posts back maybe a couple weeks or so. The bulls have managed to keep utilities buoyant which keeps the stock market buoyant. The AI hype has sent utes to the moon due to the obscene power requirements required to answer a question incorrectly. UTIL begins the week at 1036 only 15 ticks from mayhem at the 1021 line in the sand.

For the following week of 12/16/24, the 1021 will no longer matter and it will be replaced with 1029. Then, for the week of 12/23/24, Christmas week, the 1029 does not matter and it will be replaced with 1054. What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? It means stocks are in trouble now if UTIL loses 1021. If utes hang on this week above 1021, watch the closing number at 4 PM EST Friday since it will need to be above 1029 for the week of 12/16/24. Then, price has to be above 1054 during Christmas week, and UTIL is at 1036 now which would spell trouble ahead for US stocks.

Utilities are important because if they roll over lower now and trend lower, and then the US stock market drops and begins trending lower, it tells you that the pullback is going to be significant (-10%, -20% and maybe more) and not a run of the mill pullback (-3% to -5%). If utes remain elevated, especially above 1060 for the next 3 weeks, Santa Claus will come to town and the bulls will be partying All Night Long.

Focus on copper and chips. Watch SOX 5046. As chips go, so goes the stock market.

12/15/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/8/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 12:10 PM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 11:16 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 10:06 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/6/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains long
12/6/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/5/24; 1:26 PM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/4/24; 11:13 AM EST = +34; signal line is +28
12/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +28
12/3/24; 11:40 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
12/3/24; 11:33 AM EST = +48; signal line is +26
12/3/24; 10:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25
12/3/24; 10:03 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 2:59 PM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/2/24; 2:14 PM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
12/2/24; 11:34 AM EST = +34; signal line is +24
12/1/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short. The holiday light volume creates the push and pull with the SPX printing a new all-time high at 6044. The algo number is 6 points below the signal line so the quant wants to be short but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move.

If the SPX moves steadily lower to 6004, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. That is a -28 drop in S&P futures. If the SPX gaps lower on Monday morning, the quant will likely not bite right away and instead wait about 90 minutes before flipping short, if that is the chosen direction.

Commodities, chips and copper, the three c's, create the negativity in the stock market despite the new all-time highs. Since the bulls have their chests puffed-out and are partying like its 1999, they need GTX above 3567 and/or SOX above 5050 to prove that higher is the direction ahead for stocks. At least 1 of the 2 must turn bullish to justify the highs in the S&P 500. If the 2 metrics remain bearish, the stock market upside will stall and reverse to the downside.

In addition to the SPX moving below 6004, the quant will need higher volatility to create sustainable broad market selling.

12/8/24; 7:00 PM EST =
12/6/24; 10:00 AM EST =
12/6/24; 9:00 AM EST =
12/1/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 11:48 AM EST = +18; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
11/29/24; 9:38 AM EST = +32; signal line is +26
11/26/24; 12:03 PM EST = +18; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
11/26/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/26/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
11/25/24; 12:43 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 12:09 PM EST = +32; signal line is +30
11/25/24; 12:02 PM EST = +18; signal line is +29 but algorithm remains long
11/25/24; 11:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +28
11/25/24; 11:20 AM EST = +18; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
11/24/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/22/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +27
11/21/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26; go long 5950; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +24.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at munch time at SPX 5950. Choppy sloppy price action occurs as commodities flutter to and fro. The bulls have commodes, volatility and retail in their camp creating buoyancy in the stock market. Semiconductors and copper are in the bear camp the two key negatives limiting the upside for bulls.

Thus, the bulls need SOX above 5077 to prove that they can create another leg higher for stocks. If you are bullish and see SOX move above 5077, you can start throwing confetti. If bearish, you need to hold the line at SOX 5077.

The bears need to pull commodities, volatility and/or retail into their camp to create negativity in equities and wrestle back control of the stock market. The bears need GTX below 3565, VIX above 17.73, and/or RTH below 219.05. Any 1 of the 3 will place the imminent turn notation in the title line and position the robot to flip back to the short side. The degree of potential negativity in the stock market is directly correlated to these 3 parameters turning bearish. If the three remain bullish, the bulls will be sinking a happy song.

Pay attention to SOX 5077 since a lot is riding on that number. Also, GTX 3565 (you can follow it on stockcharts.com with $GTX). The market is a coin-flip these days but the battle between chips and commodes will tell you who wins.

On the last trade, that barely lasts a week, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. For the year, with December drawing close, the benchmark SPX is up a huge +25%. The algorithm program is up +10% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +18%. Keybot exited SDS and entered SSO.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell.

11/24/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/22/24; 10:00 AM EST =
11/21/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +26; go long 5950; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +24.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +9.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2024 = +17.5%)
11/21/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
11/19/24; 1:06 PM EST = +18; signal line is +25
11/19/24; 12:29 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
11/19/24; 11:06 AM EST = +18; signal line is +24
11/19/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
11/19/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +22
11/17/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +21
11/15/24; 10:01 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +23.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +19.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 5899 at the 10:01 AM EST palindrome on Friday morning. The robot was in position to go short anytime this week but it took a while for the internal parameters to set up correctly to trigger the move. The algo number is only 2 measly points below the signal line so the bears have more work to do to prove that they can take the stock market lower.

In a nutshell, chips, copper and commodities took the pipe creating market angst. Utes and volatility remain in the bull camp trying to keep stocks buoyant.

UTIL dropped to the critical 1018 line in the sand but the bulls bounced it. VIX ran higher to the critical 17.55 line in the sand but the bulls pushed it back down. The quant is an octopus with tentacles reaching out and tapping lines in the sand to determine the direction of the stock market.

For the week ahead, the UTIL 1018 number is meaningless and replaced with 997 for the whole week and the week after, with the Thanksgiving Day holiday, the 997 will be meaningless and replaced with 1004. UTIL was pumped to 1034 last week to stave off the bears but watch the 997-1004 level the rest of the month because if price fails into this range, there will be Hell to pay in the stock market.

In addition to UTIL 997, bears need VIX above 17.55 to increase the selling pressure.

The bulls need stronger chips, copper and commodities and to push SOX above 5152, CPER above 27.30 and/or GTX above 3565, respectively, and each may prove to be a difficult task.

Boiling it down to something simple, watch chips and volatility. If VIX pops above 17.55, stocks are going to drop like rocks. If SOX pops above 5152, the bulls are back in business, will stabilize the stock market, and start thinking about moving higher again.

On the last trade that ran for about 2 weeks, the quant program gains about +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains about +6%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a humongous +24%. Wowza. The quant algorithm program is up about +11% on the year thus far and the actual trading is up +19% now within 5 percentage-points of the benchmark with 6 weeks remaining in the year, but no one is complaining about a +19% return. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Bears need higher volatility and weaker utilities and retail stocks. Bulls need stronger chips, copper and commodities (three weak signs that growth is not as great as people are hyping and if rates are on the rise that is a signal of fear of the growing debt in government and society and not a sign of a robust US and global economy ahead).

11/17/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/15/24; 10:01 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20; go short 5899; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +23.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +10.6%)(Actual results this trade = +5.5%; Actual results for 2024 = +19.2%)
11/15/24; 9:41 AM EST = +18; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/14/24; 3:58 PM EST = +2; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/11/24; 11:12 AM EST = +18; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/11/24; 10:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +22
11/11/24; 9:55 AM EST = +18; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST = +34; signal line is +22
11/8/24; 10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +20
11/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +20
11/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +19
11/6/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +18
11/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +17
11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 1:30 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 12:09 PM EST = +20; signal line is +18
11/1/24; 11:52 AM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 11:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +19
11/1/24; 10:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +20; go long 5736; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +13.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the cat and mouse game with copper and commodities continues.  According to the quant, the only metrics that matter to stock market direction currently are copper, commodities, utilities, chips and volatility, in that order of importance. Everything else is noise.

You can see that the bulls lose ground with the algo number only 13 points above the signal line. Copper and commodities failed on Friday creating the drop. For the bulls to continue the rally, they must push CPER back above 27.40 and/or GTX above 3573. Both will be needed if bulls expect to run stocks far higher. If both or one remain in the bear camp, stocks will not make much headway higher. Bulls will need a +1.1% gain in copper futures overnight Sunday into Monday morning if they want to maintain buoyancy in the stock market. 

Utilities are back in play. UTIL 1018.46 is the bull/bear line in the sand for all of the week ahead. If this would have failed before Friday's close, the bears would be singing songs of joy all weekend long. Alas, the bulls know that they have to keep utes buoyant if they want stocks to go up so they goosed UTIL up to 1032 to end last week. That keeps the bears at bay, for now. If UTIL loses 1018, and the SPX drops below 5977, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The bulls have the chips and volatility in their camp creating the upside orgy. Bears must pull SOX below 5143 and/or push VIX above 17.43 to start a significant pullback in stocks.

Thus, bears need weaker utes and they are in clover. Weaker semiconductors or higher volatility will also bolster the bear case and begin a soggy path ahead for stocks. The bulls must hold the line here, and they did with pumping the utilities on Friday, but to continue the vertical rally, they need stronger copper and commodities. Easy-peasy.

Keybot prints the Sunday pre-scheduled number tomorrow.

11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/8/24; 10:11 AM EST = +34; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST = +48; signal line is +21
11/8/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +20
11/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls came to play this week out of the gate on Monday morning. Donnie Trump is elected president creating a rally and then Pope Powell blesses stocks again yesterday. Everyone sees nothing but blue skies, rainbows and puppy dogs ahead.

Copper is persnickety this week with radical ups and downs. CPER 27.44 is the bull/bear line in the sand which may give-way after the opening bell in the US. The bears need a drop of -1.4% in copper futures that are down -1.9% in real-time so the bears are trying to stop the stock market rally by wrestling Dr Copper to the ground. China is going to release some policy decisions today that may send copper wildly one way or the other.

Start paying attention to utilities again. Utes got caught up in the AI hype due to the increased need for power. UTIL climbed higher like a tech stock. For all of next week, UTIL 1018.46 is a key bull/bear line in the sand. Watch price today because if UTIL finishes the week below 1018, that tells you that stocks will be soggy come Monday. If UTIL finishes the week above 1019, that tells you that the blue skies, rainbows and puppy dogs are real. Even the White Rabbit.

The bull are in charge with the algo number a big 44 points above the signal line. Weaker copper and utilities will cap the stock market rally but the bears will still need weakness in semiconductors, or a pop in volatility, to set the model up for a potential move to the short side.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning shortly after the opening bell. Copper, utilities, chips and volatility matter in that order for stock market direction; nothing else does. Watch the UTIL 1018 line in the sand today since it will tell you how things will set up for Monday.

11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/24; 9:36 AM EST = +64; signal line is +20
11/6/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +19
11/6/24; 3:06 AM EST = +48; signal line is +18
11/4/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +17
11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Friday morning at SPX 5736 due to upside joy with copper and commodities, however, by the end of the session, both metrics had fallen on their sword turning bearish again. The algo number is 13 points below the signal line so the robot is already champing at the bit to flip back to the short side.

If the SPX drifts lower after Monday's opening bell dropping below 5723, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. The stock market is psycho these days so anything can happen. Watch S&P futures since a 6-point pullback would be enough to set the wheels in motion for the bears to smile.

The bulls have the ball but they are losing ground. Bulls need CPER above 27.41 and/or GTX above 3576, stronger copper and commodities, respectively. Watch copper futures because as copper goes, so goes the market. Bulls need higher copper and commodities to resume the upside rally while weaker retail stocks and banks will be new death nails in the bull coffin.

Whittling it down, watch SPX 5723 and copper futures. If you are bearish, you want a steady move lower in the SPX. If price gaps down at the opening bell, the quant will likely wait for about 90 minutes before taking action.

On the last trade, that ran for a week and one-half, the robot spit out a ton of numbers. It is a crazy tape. The quant program gains a percent and the actual trading gains a couple percent. For the year, with only 2 months remaining, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about +20%. The quant program is up about +8% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +14% continuing to underperform the benchmark by 6 percentage points. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Markets remain a coin-flip as America barrels towards the Tuesday election.

11/10/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/8/24; 10:00 AM EST =
11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST = +4; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 1:30 PM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 12:09 PM EST = +20; signal line is +18
11/1/24; 11:52 AM EST = +4; signal line is +18 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 11:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +19
11/1/24; 10:28 AM EST = +4; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 10:26 AM EST = +20; signal line is +20 but algorithm remains long
11/1/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +20; go long 5736; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +7.8%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +13.7%)
11/1/24; 9:00 AM EST = +4; signal line is +19
10/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +4; signal line is +20
10/31/24; 3:14 PM EST = +4; signal line is +21
10/31/24; 10:38 AM EST = -12; signal line is +22
10/31/24; 10:25 AM EST = +4; signal line is +24
10/31/24; 9:36 AM EST = -12; signal line is +25
10/30/24; 3:59 PM EST = +4; signal line is +27
10/30/24; 3:51 PM EST = +36; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
10/30/24; 3:11 PM EST = +20; signal line is +28
10/30/24; 2:48 PM EST = +36; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
10/30/24; 9:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +28
10/29/24; 2:59 PM EST = +36; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains short
10/29/24; 1:24 PM EST = +20; signal line is +26
10/29/24; 1:09 PM EST = +36; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/29/24; 10:36 AM EST = +20; signal line is +25
10/29/24; 10:00 AM EST = +36; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/29/24; 9:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/29/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +23
10/28/24; 3:19 PM EST = +32; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 3:03 PM EST = +16; signal line is +23
10/28/24; 2:46 PM EST = +32; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 2:06 PM EST = +16; signal line is +23
10/28/24; 1:42 PM EST = +32; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 1:15 PM EST = +16; signal line is +24
10/28/24; 12:56 PM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 11:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +24
10/28/24; 10:27 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 10:19 AM EST = +16; signal line is +25
10/28/24; 10:07 AM EST = +32; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/28/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +24
10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/25/24; 10:06 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 3:51 PM EST = +46; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:48 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:37 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20
10/24/24; 2:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21
10/24/24; 2:12 PM EST = +0; signal line is +22
10/24/24; 2:04 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23
10/24/24; 1:54 PM EST = +0; signal line is +24
10/24/24; 1:42 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 1:29 PM EST = +14; signal line is +27
10/24/24; 11:52 AM EST = +0; signal line is +28
10/24/24; 11:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +29
10/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
10/23/24; 12:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30
10/23/24; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +31; go short 5799; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +21.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.3%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 21 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch to permit the move to the long side. The algo went schizoid on Thursday spitting out 14 numbers.

Copper and chips are all that matter with a sprinkling of commodities. All three parameters turned bullish creating stock market joy, however, the SPX gave-up the ghost finishing the week at 5808. If the SPX moves above 5863 on Monday, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That is a formidable task, 55 S&P points, but anything can happen these days.

Bears need CPER below 27.40, SOX below 5145 and/or GTX 3575. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will prove that the bears still got game. Bears need 2 of the metrics to turn bearish to maintain control of the stock market. If all 3 turn bearish, a lot of downside is ahead for the stock market.

It is a game of pennies. Copper futures need to drop only -0.1%, a marginal loss, to turn CPER bearish again. SOX (semiconductors) needs to drop -1.3% to help the bears. GTX (commodities) needs to drop -1.1% to help the bears.

Keybot the Quant prints three pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, one on Thursday, Halloween, evening for EOM, and one on Friday morning. Watch copper futures overnight since they are steering the stock market ship. Everyone wants to hear the Monster Mash these days. It is a graveyard smash.

11/3/24; 7:00 PM EST =
11/1/24; 9:00 AM EST =
10/31/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/29/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains short
10/25/24; 10:06 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains short
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 3:59 PM EST = +30; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 3:51 PM EST = +46; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:48 PM EST = +30; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:37 PM EST = +14; signal line is +20
10/24/24; 2:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 2:18 PM EST = +16; signal line is +21
10/24/24; 2:12 PM EST = +0; signal line is +22
10/24/24; 2:04 PM EST = +14; signal line is +23
10/24/24; 1:54 PM EST = +0; signal line is +24
10/24/24; 1:42 PM EST = +30; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
10/24/24; 1:29 PM EST = +14; signal line is +27
10/24/24; 11:52 AM EST = +0; signal line is +28
10/24/24; 11:06 AM EST = +16; signal line is +29
10/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains short
10/23/24; 12:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at munch time at SPX 5799. Copper and chips sink the stock market. The algo number is only 16 points below the signal line so the stock market remains a coin flip.

The bears have the ball and need further weakness in copper and chips and must also pull commodities, retail stocks and banks lower. Bears need GTX below 3575 and RTH below 214.80 to kick-in heavy stock market selling.

Bulls need to pull copper and chips back into their camp; CPER above 27.40 and/or SOX above 5141, respectively. This represents about a +0.7% rise in copper futures and a +0.2% gain in semiconductors. It is easy to see that the bulls can quickly position themselves in the driver's seat again.

Copper futures are up +0.9% in the early morning hours on the East Coast so CPER may be in position to turn bullish after the opening bell. You can look at SMH or individual chip plays in the pre-market to see if SOX wants to turn bullish again.

On the last trade, that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant, gain about a percent. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark is up a huge +22%. That is funny considering everyone was expecting recession and sadness in stocks this year. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is up about +7% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11% in 2024 underperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 11 percentage points. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

A pre-scheduled number prints tomorrow morning after the opening bell. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the long side. Copper and chips tell you what the stock market is doing.

10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/24; 12:56 PM EST = +14; signal line is +30
10/23/24; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +31; go short 5799; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +21.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2024 = +11.3%)
10/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
10/22/24; 9:56 AM EST = +46; signal line is +31
10/21/24; 3:59 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
10/21/24; 11:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +31 but algorithm remains long
10/20/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
10/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 11:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 11:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:54 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:37 PM EST = +0; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +42
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +41
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The quant was champing at the bit to go short but the bulls stop the assault and are in the good again by one point. Markets are a coin-flip these days.

The bulls pumped copper to save the day last week. Doctor Copper is sitting in a wheelchair today, by the window, so he can enjoy the beautiful Fall foliage of the Laurel Highlands in southwestern Pennsylvania. He is in the bull camp but he has a terrible cough. Oh, no, hack, cough, wheeze, get him back into bed. Stat! Punch a vein for a saline drip. Stat! Dr Copper is touch and go these days. He is resting again, clutching the bull pillow.

Chips also helped the bull case last week while volatility and commodities remain in the bear camp.

Bulls need either VIX below 16.35 or GTX above 3576 to signal big stock market gains ahead and the path to fulfill the SPX 6K levels and higher by year-end.

Bears need CPER below 27.36 or SOX below 5136 to signal big trouble ahead for US stocks. It is extremely odd that the VIX is moving higher with stocks making all-time highs. The SPX printed an all-time high at 5878 last Thursday, 10/17/24. This tells you there is a problem under the surface. Chips are also pumped when the bulls need to stick-save the SPX as it rolls over.

If either CPER or SOX turn bearish, and the SPX loses 19 or 20 points, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Copper futures need to drop -0.8% for the bears to start ripping bull flesh. The SOX needs to drop about -1.4% to create stock market negativity. Commodities (GTX) need to rise about +1.7% to create a bullish orgy.

Choose your poison. Focus on the red metal. If copper futures fall -0.8% overnight, and the SPX gives up 20 points on Monday, it is likely the start of something painful ahead for stocks. Keybot the Quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The caution flag is out but if copper or the chips turn sour, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play. You bess be careful if headin' down Copperhead Road.

10/27/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/25/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/20/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +31
10/18/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +16; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 11:18 AM EST = +16; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
10/17/24; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 12:45 PM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 11:12 AM EST = +16; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
10/16/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:54 PM EST = +16; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 3:37 PM EST = +0; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:41 AM EST = +16; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
10/15/24; 9:36 AM EST = +32; signal line is +41 but algorithm remains long
10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +42
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +41
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side at SPX 5755 with only 20 minutes left in the trading session today.  The stock market has been bumping along unable to commit to the upside or downside. It would not be surprising to see a whipsaw this week. The algo number is only 6 points above the signal line so the bull's grip is not very strong.

Bulls need VIX below 16.00 and it is above 21. The rally got nothing until it can be proven with lower volatility. This is extremely odd and rare behavior because the stock market at or near all-time highs should see a VIX far lower at the 10-14 area right now. Something strange is occurring.

Bears need weaker chips, banks, copper and commodities. Copper may be recoiling. Watch the CPER 27.25 bull/bear line in the sand. Bank earnings in a couple days may create excitement.

On the last trade, that only ran for about a week, the quant program loses about a percent and the actual trading is down a couple percent. For the year thus far, with Q4 underway, the SPX is up a huge +21% a wild gain especially since everyone expected a recession at the start of the year. The Keybot the Quant program is up about +6% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10% thus far in 2024. Keybot exited QID and entered SSO.

10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST =
10/8/24; 3:38 PM EST = +46; signal line is +40; go long 5755; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +20.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.9%)(Actual results this trade = +2.4%; Actual results for 2024 = +10.0%)
10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/2/24; 10:01 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 2:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +32; signal line is +37
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long. The price action remains wild with the VIX above 20. Expect more wild intraday and day to day price swings in stocks going forward.

If the SPX moves above 5753-5770 (depends on internal parameters), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. It will be key if the S&P futures are positive or negative overnight into the Monday session.

The bears need weaker chips, commodities and banks if they want to retain their stock market control. Bears need SOX under 5060, GTX below 3560 and XLF under 44.19. Any 1 of the 3 will immediately put the bears back in the pole position with stocks dropping. All 3 turning negative would send the stock market far lower.

If none of the 3 parameters turn bearish, the bears are in trouble and the bulls will likely takeover. However, the bulls need the VIX below 15.67 to verify that more upside for stocks is real and on the way. Bulls got nothing going forward, even if the quant flips bullish, unless the VIX falls below 15.67.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Friday morning. Focus on the SPX 5753, SOX 5060 and GTX 3560 bull/bear lines in the sand.

10/13/24; 7:00 PM EST = 
10/11/24; 10:00 AM EST = 
10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
10/2/24; 10:01 AM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the port workers go on strike and Iran fires missiles at Israel. It is not a lovely day in the neighborhood. Today was funny. The chips skidded off the road and wrecked into a tree turning bearish creating stock market negativity, however, the commodities turn bullish. The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 7 points below the signal line.

The juxtaposition (how do you like that ten-dollar college word?) of chips and commodities adds a new twist to the stock market game. Bears need weaker banks and commodities if they want to create carnage. Bulls need stronger chips and lower volatility if they want to take control of the stock market again.

Bears need GTX below 3553 and it is only 22 points away from turning bearish. Bears need XLF below 44.19 which will also create market mayhem.

Bulls need SOX above 5050 and it is only 25 points away from turning bullish. Bulls need VIX below 15.67 which will also create market joy. Either one will place the quant in position to potentially flip long.

Condensing that further, it is a battle between chips and commodities. The cage match is set. Two will enter tomorrow but only one will exit and dictate the road ahead. Bears win big if they pull GTX below the 3553 palindrome. Bulls win big if they can push SOX above 5050. One of them will flinch. You do not need to watch the indexes. Watch the chips and commodities and they will tell you what the broad stock indexes will do. The SPX is at 5709 where it flipped short yesterday going nowhere fast.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
10/1/24; 3:36 PM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 2:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
10/1/24; 10:20 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
10/1/24; 9:52 AM EST = +46; signal line is +37 but algorithm remains short
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = +32; signal line is +37
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 5709 as Fed Chairman Powell was speaking. Volatility and commodities remain in the bear camp creating negativity while the banks and chips remain in the bull camp creating positivity in the stock market. The algo number is only 4 points below the signal line so the downside is not yet showing enthusiasm.

Bears need SOX below 5040 and/or XLF below 44.04 to verify the downside and begin the carnage. If these two metrics remain bullish, the bears will probably fold like a cheap suit and volatility will drop.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains +3.1%. For the year thus far with Q3 ending today, the benchmark SPX, that is the US stock market, is up about +20% this year. The bulls cheer their good fortune. The Keybot the Quant algo is up about +7% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +12% underperforming the benchmark by 8 percentage points. Keybot exited SSO and entered QID.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/24; 2:23 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36; go short 5709; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +19.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.7%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +6.7%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +12.4%)
9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 8:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
9/26/24; 8:08 AM EST = +32; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 3:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33
9/25/24; 12:48 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/25/24; 12:04 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31
9/25/24; 11:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
9/25/24; 11:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28
9/25/24; 11:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26
9/25/24; 11:34 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24
9/25/24; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +22
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
9/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +17
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16
9/23/24; 2:06 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
9/23/24; 1:55 PM EST = +34; signal line is +13
9/23/24; 12:04 PM EST = +18; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 11:56 AM EST = +34; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 10:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:42 AM EST = +34; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +10
9/23/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +9
9/23/24; 9:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +8
9/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +8
9/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/20/24; 9:50 AM EST = +18; signal line is +7
9/19/24; 9:43 AM EST = +34; signal line is +7
9/18/24; 9:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/15/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:28 PM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 2:06 PM EST = +2; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains long
9/13/24; 10:00 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5
9/13/24; 9:36 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5; go long 5612; (Benchmark SPX for 2024 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.2%; Keybot algo for 2024 = +5.0%)(Actual results this trade = -2.1%; Actual results for 2024 = +9.3%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX trends lower and falls below 5727 (will start the new week at 5738), Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Thus, watch the S&P futures overnight to see if they are soggy by 11 points.

The battle for US stock market directional control is volatility and commodities in the bear camp creating negativity versus the banks and chips in the bull camp helping stocks to float higher and for the SPX to print a new all-time high at 5767 and new all-time closing high at 5745 on 9/26/24.

Bears need the SPX below 5727 and trending lower and they will take over control of the stock market. Bears need XLF below 44.04, which is about a -2.1% drop in the financials needed, and/or SOX below 5040, which is about a -3.4% loss in semiconductors needed to create more negativity. These two metrics turning bearish will create serious negativity and a lot of bearish price action but bears will have to bring their A game to reverse these high-flying sectors.

Bulls need VIX below 15.26. This was a key battle last week and will continue in the week ahead. Very simply, bulls win big going forward if the VIX loses 15.26 but bears will create market carnage the longer that the VIX remains above 15.26 especially if it begins moving higher (and Friday it did with the VIX near 17).

Bulls also need GTX above the 3553 palindrome to create more stock market upside that equates to about a +1% gain in broad commodities. 

Keybot prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Monday, that is the end of the month (EOM) and quarter (EOQ3), and the other on Friday morning. Three-quarters of the year, 75%, is in the bag with the final 3 months of trading remaining in 2024.

Whittling the above mumbo-jumbo down to something simple, watch SPX 5727 and VIX 15.26. The bulls will create new all-time highs if VIX loses 15.26. Bears win big if VIX remains above 15.26 and if the SPX loses 5727. Easy-peasy. It's Easy like Sunday morning.

10/6/24; 7:00 PM EST =
10/4/24; 9:00 AM EST =
9/30/24; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST = +32; signal line is +36 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 3 points below the signal line. The bears are stretching their legs looking for something to slash. If the SPX trends lower and slips below 5721, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Bears do not want a gap-down move since this would delay any potential move to the short side for about 90 minutes. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 5767.37 and a new all-time closing high at 5745.37. Thus, price needs to drop from 5745 to 5721 to flip the quant short a loss of only 24 points if watching S&P futures.

The VIX continues oscillating above and below the important 15.25 line in the sand. Lower volatility sends stocks higher and higher volatility sends stocks lower. The VIX is the rudder steering the stock market ship currently.

Bears need the SPX to drop below 5721 and then for chips and banks to weaken which will accelerate the downside for US stocks.

Bulls need to prevent the SPX from falling below 5721 and at the same time send the VIX below 15.25 that will guarantee upside victory going forward. Bulls will then focus on rallying commodities to create more upside.

SPX 5721 and VIX 15.25 will tell the stock market story tomorrow. Watch them like a hawk. Bears win big and the model flips short if the SPX loses 5721. Bulls win big if the VIX is pushed below 15.25.

Keybot the Quant prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow morning.

9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/26/24; 9:54 AM EST = +32; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 8:21 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
9/26/24; 8:08 AM EST = +32; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
9/26/24; 3:13 AM EST = +46; signal line is +33
9/25/24; 12:48 PM EST = +32; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
9/25/24; 12:04 PM EST = +46; signal line is +31
9/25/24; 11:58 AM EST = +32; signal line is +29
9/25/24; 11:55 AM EST = +46; signal line is +28
9/25/24; 11:42 AM EST = +60; signal line is +26
9/25/24; 11:34 AM EST = +46; signal line is +24
9/25/24; 10:43 AM EST = +60; signal line is +22
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +19
9/24/24; 9:36 AM EST = +48; signal line is +17
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Markets are running wild. "Big fine Daddy, please don't start runnin' wild," as Roy Brown sings about Big Town. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 18 points above the signal line. The robot prints 11 numbers today to begin the week so something must be going on under the surface.

The bulls pumped the semiconductors today creating a new SPX all-time closing high at 5718.57 another all-time high bookended by the '57'. The SPX all-time intraday high, the highest number ever, remains at 5737.57. If all this holds, it will be the 'Ole Heinz 57 Top'.

SOX 5016.50 is the bull/bear line in the sand that will send the broad stock market one way or the other. SOX ended the Monday session at 5026 so the bulls are celebrating at the tavern slappin' each other's backs while drinking booze.

Interestingly, commodities turned bullish but in short order failed back into the bear camp. The GTX 3553 palindrome is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is at 3528 creating bearishness in the stock market.

Volatility remains in the bear camp. Bulls need VIX below 15.26 to verify the stock market rally. If VIX remains above 15.26, it proves that the stock market rally was phony-baloney and will roll over and die.

Copper remains in play with bears needing CPER below 26.51 to create market mayhem.

The robot is focused on SOX 5016.50, GTX 3553 and VIX 15.26 as the three main drivers of stock market direction, currently; chips, commodities and volatility, respectively. SOX is creating upside market joy while GTX and VIX are creating stock market sogginess.

If SOX falls below 5016.50, and the SPX falls below 5704 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. What may be needed is a jog move with the chips to push the robot into going short. If you see SOX fall below 5016.50, but after 7 to 15 minutes, maybe more, it comes back above, again for about 7 to 15 minutes, maybe more, and then fails through the 5016.50, that will likely signal that the stock market is about to weaken and begin a broad down move.

VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so a drop below 15.26 in the early morning hours will mean that stocks will be off to the races higher in the US session. Stocks will remains flat or soggy if VIX remains above 15.26 overnight, and then you want to watch SOX after the opening bell. You can watch GTX on stock charts using '$GTX'.

Tuesday will be a decisive day. The VIX has dropped to where it is time to make the move on the 15.26 or go home. All 3 metrics are at key pivot points and whatever they do, the stock market will follow. I Will Follow Him by Peggy March.

9/29/24; 7:00 PM EST =
9/27/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/24/24; 10:00 AM EST =
9/23/24; 2:14 PM EST = +34; signal line is +16
9/23/24; 2:06 PM EST = +18; signal line is +14
9/23/24; 1:55 PM EST = +34; signal line is +13
9/23/24; 12:04 PM EST = +18; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 11:56 AM EST = +34; signal line is +12
9/23/24; 10:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:42 AM EST = +34; signal line is +11
9/23/24; 10:34 AM EST = +48; signal line is +10
9/23/24; 9:57 AM EST = +32; signal line is +9
9/23/24; 9:44 AM EST = +18; signal line is +8
9/23/24; 9:36 AM EST = +34; signal line is +8
9/22/24; 7:00 PM EST = +18; signal line is +7