STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with another sleepy week occurring into the holiday today. Happy Juneteenth, brah.

The quant prints the prescheduled number and the bulls remain in control of the stock market with the algo number 13 points above the signal line. It is nothing to write home about.

As previously mentioned, the quant continues tracking financials, copper and volatility. All 3 metrics are bullish keeping the stock market buoyant. Bears need XLF below 49.93, CPER below 29.65 and/or VIX above 22.69. Any 1 of the 3 will place the quant in position for an imminent turn to the short side.

If any 1 of the 3 metrics turn bearish tomorrow, and the SPX drops below 5972 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The banks are key. As the banks go, so goes the stock market. You can check XLF and the bank tickers in the pre-market to see what will happen. Copper futures would need to drop about -2.3% to help the bears.

If stocks drop but the VIX remains below 22.69, the bears got nothing and the bulls will reexert themselves. If the VIX moves above 22.69, it is lights-out for stocks.

Utilities will likely come back into play next week. UTIL 1018 will spell trouble, same as this week, and price is at 1032. UTIL dropped to touch 1018 and immediately recover; if you blinked, you missed it. If UTIL loses 1018, stocks are in big trouble going forward and then if 1010 is lost, the stock market will go into a crash profile. Lots of fun is ahead.

For now, it is time to have fun and acknowledge the fact that slavery does not exist in America anymore but continues around the world every day; such as the Uyghurs in dirtbag communist China enslaved by Dictator Xi and his CCP henchmen. The Uyghurs will never see a Juneteenth; the world is an ugly place. Hold On.

6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the new week of trading ahead. The regular Sunday number prints and the robot is tracking banks, copper and volatility as the three key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. All 3 are bullish creating the ongoing buoyancy in equities.

The bull/bear lines in the sand are XLF 49.91, CPER 29.54 and VIX 22.48. Since the financials failed on Friday, but recovered, they are the major focus of the quant currently. As banks go, so goes the stock market. Check XLF in the pre-market Monday morning and you will know how the day will go.

Copper and VIX futures trade overnight so they will provide a heads-up on how the stock market will move. The bears need copper futures to be down -0.8% or more overnight to spell trouble ahead for stocks. Also, the bears need the VIX to pop above, and track higher, from 22.48, otherwise they got buptkis. Even if stocks sell off, but the VIX does not go above 22.48, the selloff is phony baloney and stocks will recover. Bears win big if VIX moves above 22.48.

If any 1 of the 3 metrics turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play for the robot and if the SPX is below 5963 and tracking lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on hump day.

The FOMC meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday with Pope Powell bringing the tablets down from On High on hump day that will tell traders how to trade. Stocks are buoyant and bullish about 80% of the time going into a Fed meeting so early week will be interesting. Israel is now bombing Iran's oil refineries and storage facilities so oil futures should continue tracking higher. There were no oil installations hit on the first bombing when stocks were trading on Friday. Also, Israel says the war will continue for weeks not days.

6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = 
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after a sleepy, slow, uneventful week ends in turmoil. Israel attacks Iran to stop its uranium enrichment and work towards building a bomb. The bullishness is off the charts these days. Traders and investors are buying any dip with glee even as bombs drop.

The quant did not print any numbers the whole week until today starting with the pre-scheduled number. After lunch, the banks failed. That drove stocks lower creating the afternoon sogginess. Banks recovered into the closing bell so the bears are left at the altar once again.

On Monday, all that matters are banks, copper and volatility. Both copper and volatility will trade overnight into Monday for a heads-up on what is going to happen. Banks are important and will likely send the stock market in the same direction they travel next week.

If any of the three metrics turn bearish, Keybot the Quant will likely flip to the short side. The numbers of interest can be pulled from the robot after the Sunday print. XLF 49.91 is the bull/bear line in the sand that controls market direction. XLF finished the week at 49.96 only a nickel bullish so anything can happen on Monday.

No one talked about Friday the 13th today. Probably because of the chaos everywhere. Or maybe they are not superstitious like Stevie in the gang. Funky cool.

6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45
6/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the algo number 17 points above the signal line. The bullishness is off the charts these days with confetti tossed even if stocks only advance a smidgeon.

Commodities, copper and utilities are key. If the dollar pops going forward, commodities should sink. GTX 3648, CPER 29.48 and UTIL 1013 are the key bull/bear lines in the sand to watch to begin the new week of trading. Any one turning bearish will likely place the quant in position to go short.

For now, the bulls do not have a care in the world and all traders believe stocks will go up forever. It will be interesting to see how it plays out. Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning; Friday the 13th. Bad Luck. Back in the CBGB days with the wife-beater tee-shirts.

6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41
6/4/25; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
6/4/25; 3:14 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 3:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side yesterday at SPX 5925. Copper and commodities jump higher to begin the week carrying the stock market higher. Today, sogginess reenters. Copper and commodities are weak.

CPER 29.42 and GTX 3640 are key bull/bear lines in the sand. GTX gave up the ghost late-day yesterday so the focus is on copper. Copper futures need to drop about -3.2% to help the bears but is down -2.6% right now.

If CPER loses 29.42, and the SPX drops below 5861, Keybot the Quant will likely want to flip short but that is a tall ask for today (SPX likely needs to drop about -75 points to flip the model short).

On the last trade that lasted about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the quant program loses about a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant loses a couple percent. For the year, with only 20 trading days remaining in H1, the benchmark S&P 500 is dead flat. The Keybot the Quant algo program is up about +16% and the actual trading is up about +19%. Due to the whipsaw, the quant drops into the 1x ETF's again for 30 days because it senses that there is choppy slop ahead and it wants to reduce risk. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SPY. Stay alert for another potential Whipsaw back to the short side this week.

6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36
6/2/25; 2:51 PM EST = +60; signal line is +35
6/2/25; 2:23 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35; go long 5925 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +18.8%)
6/2/25; 2:09 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
6/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35
5/30/25; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35; go short 5859 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +16.7%)(Actual results this trade = +11.5%; Actual results for 2025 = +21.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short from Friday. Copper futures explode +5% higher because the bulls know what they need to goose to keep the stock market buoyant. S&P futures, however, are down about -30 points. The roller coaster of mixed signals continues. The quant likely needs about 10 SPX points or higher to whipsaw the model back to the long side so if the bulls want it, they need to turn around the negative futures by about 40 points.

The VIX 22.16 bull/bear line in the sand holds a lot of clout. VIX is trading at 20 now (in the bull camp; volatility moves inversely to stocks) about 4 hours before the opening bell for the regular trading session in the US.

Bulls remain in the game and can take the ball back as long as the VIX remains below 22.16. If VIX moves above 22.16, stocks will fall apart.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell.

6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +30; signal line is +35
5/30/25; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35; go short 5859 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +16.7%)(Actual results this trade = +11.5%; Actual results for 2025 = +21.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side today at SPX 5859 at munchtime. It is all about copper now and going forward.

CPER 29.38 is the bull/bear line in the sand and at the end of the session price comes up to, wait for it, wait a bit longer, 29.37 settling at 29.36. As copper goes, so goes the US stock market.

Bulls need CPER above 29.38 to keep the stock market steady and begin fighting back to regain control.

Bears need to keep copper in their camp and at the same time pulling UTIL below 1023, NYA below 19455, and/or VIX above 22.16. You can use these three parameters as a gauge on the potential selling event developing. If 1 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will remains soggy and begin weakening further. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, stocks will be falling in a steady machine-driven selloff. If all 3 turn bearish, the stock market is screwed and will be falling like a rock and if UTIL then loses 1010, it is over; a stock market crash is likely. It's fun.

Thus, copper is the big shot in Big Town, baby, please let me come back home, holding all the cards for the stock market right now. Watch copper futures Sunday evening and it will tell you the direction ahead. Copper, utilities, the NYA index and volatility are all that matter.

On the last trade, the stock market recovers big off the early April lows. The benchmark SPX is now back to flat on the year. The quant program gains +12% on the last trade and is now up +17% on the year. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant gains +12% on the last trade and is now up a big +21% on the year that is not even one-half over. The quant's actual trading is outperforming the benchmark S&P 500 by 21 percentage points so far this year. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters SDS now back into the 2x leveraged ETF's since the whipsaw timer has expired. Matthew Sweet in the MTV days. Get well soon. Sick of Myself.

6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/30/25; 12:31 PM EST = +30; signal line is +35; go short 5859 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -0.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +11.5%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +16.7%)(Actual results this trade = +11.5%; Actual results for 2025 = +21.0%)
5/30/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/29/25; 9:59 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/29/25; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
5/28/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
5/27/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is +35
5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 3:55 PM EST = +27; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 3:46 PM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 3:25 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 12:28 PM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 12:10 PM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 11:36 AM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 7:53 AM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/22/25; 12:02 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/22/25; 11:47 AM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
5/22/25; 11:32 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/21/25; 2:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/21/25; 1:35 PM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/21/25; 10:38 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/21/25; 10:22 AM EST = +55; signal line is +32
5/21/25; 10:15 AM EST = +41; signal line is +30
5/21/25; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +28
5/20/25; 3:36 PM EST = +41; signal line is +26
5/19/25; 1:40 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
5/19/25; 1:24 PM EST = +41; signal line is +23
5/19/25; 1:06 PM EST = +25; signal line is +21
5/19/25; 12:57 PM EST = +41; signal line is +20
5/19/25; 12:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +17
5/19/25; 12:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +15
5/19/25; 11:43 AM EST = +25; signal line is +13
5/19/25; 11:33 AM EST = +41; signal line is +10
5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +9
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +7
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +5
5/15/25; 3:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +4
5/15/25; 1:24 PM EST = +41; signal line is +3
5/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +0
5/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = +23; signal line is -2
5/14/25; 2:39 PM EST = +9; signal line is -3
5/14/25; 2:09 PM EST = +23; signal line is -3
5/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = +7; signal line is -5
5/13/25; 11:23 AM EST = +55; signal line is -5
5/13/25; 10:13 AM EST = +41; signal line is -8
5/12/25; 10:39 AM EST = +25; signal line is -9
5/12/25; 10:11 AM EST = +39; signal line is -10
5/12/25; 10:02 AM EST = +25; signal line is -12
5/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is -13
5/12/25; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is -16
5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -18
5/9/25; 10:16 AM EST = -17; signal line is -19
5/9/25; 9:36 AM EST = -3; signal line is -21
5/8/25; 3:51 PM EST = -17; signal line is -23
5/8/25; 11:39 AM EST = -3; signal line is -24
5/7/25; 3:47 PM EST = -17; signal line is -26
5/7/25; 1:32 PM EST = -33; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
5/7/25; 1:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -28
5/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:33 PM EST = -17; signal line is -32
5/6/25; 12:54 PM EST = -33; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 12:26 PM EST = -17; signal line is -32
5/6/25; 12:19 PM EST = -1; signal line is -33
5/6/25; 10:26 AM EST = -17; signal line is -34
5/6/25; 9:44 AM EST = -33; signal line is -35
5/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -35
5/5/25; 3:02 PM EST = -17; signal line is -36
5/5/25; 2:11 PM EST = -3; signal line is -37
5/5/25; 1:03 PM EST = -17; signal line is -38
5/5/25; 12:02 PM EST = -3; signal line is -39
5/5/25; 10:11 AM EST = -17; signal line is -40
5/5/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is -41
5/4/25; 7:00 PM EST = -3; signal line is -41
5/2/25; 12:06 PM EST = -3; signal line is -42
5/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -44
5/2/25; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -49; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:47 PM EST = -49; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:36 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:17 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 2:41 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 1:31 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 1:16 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:48 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:28 PM EST = -65; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:10 PM EST = -49; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = -33; signal line is -44
4/28/25; 2:28 PM EST = -31; signal line is -45
4/28/25; 12:06 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = -31; signal line is -48
4/25/25; 2:41 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50
4/25/25; 1:51 PM EST = -47; signal line is -52
4/25/25; 1:12 PM EST = -31; signal line is -54
4/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -56
4/25/25; 9:57 AM EST = -47; signal line is -56
4/24/25; 12:31 PM EST = -31; signal line is -56
4/23/25; 11:51 AM EST = -47; signal line is -57
4/23/25; 10:07 AM EST = -31; signal line is -55
4/23/25; 9:49 AM EST = -15; signal line is -54
4/23/25; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -54
4/22/25; 10:41 AM EST = -47; signal line is -54; go long 5254 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -10.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +5.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +9.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the King Donnie roller coaster ride continues. The orange head imposes tariffs on the EU while also dissing Apple sending stocks lower late last week. Then he reverses his EU threats when Sunday night futures open to bounce stocks this week. Trump's cronies are making millions being told the moves ahead of time. The courts now rule that many of the tariff decrees must be placed on hold so stocks feel more upside joy today with S&P futures up a hundo points.

The quant is champing at the bit to go short (the algo number is 5 points below the signal line) but will not yet make the move since the internal parameters will not latch. If the SPX drops below 5882, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. It is that easy for the bears. All they need is about 7 negative points to begin stock market trouble.

But the bulls will not have it. S&P futures explode higher due to tariffs on hold by the courts, and NVDA earnings joy, so it appears that the bears are left at the altar again, for now.

While traders are giddy and buying stocks, copper slumps. It is not good going forward if Dr Copper is in the downstairs bathroom puking. The SPX may reverse its early gains today; time will tell.

Watch utilities that may be coming back into the picture. If UTIL loses the 1006-1007 level this week, there would be a high probability that the stock market may fall into a mini-crash event. It's fun. Stay alert. Do not be complacent like every trader on Wall Street today.

Also, keep an eye on the VIX 22.16 bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls are probably okay as long as the VIX remains below 22.16 but big trouble begins if she runs above 22.16. The market is Livin' On A Prayer. The bulls are tryin' to hold on to what they got.

6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/28/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +35
5/27/25; 3:06 AM EST = +41; signal line is +35
5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 7 points below the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move. The stock market cannot make up its mind. You Were Always On My Mind; Chris singing Willie's song.

There are lots of moving parts nowadays as Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War baby stuff continues. Volatility and commodities are dragging the stock market lower while copper and the NYA and SPX indexes are creating bullish buoyancy. One team or the other will win in the holiday-shortened week ahead.

For the bears, the key parameter needed is the SPX below 5767 to likely flip the quant short so watch for about -35 points of weakness in the S&P futures into Tuesday if the bears want to growl. Bears also need SPX under 5747, NYA below 19442 and/or CPER below 29.15 to create stock market carnage. All of the parameters turning bearish spell doom for the US stock market.

SPX 5747 and NYA 19442 are uber important because they separate a cyclical bull market from a cyclical bear market. Equities are testing these two key levels now so if you remain bullish the stock market, get down on your knees and pray that these two metrics do not fail. 

Bulls need VIX below 22.15 and/or GTX above 3651 to maintain control of the stock market. If the VIX remains above 22.15, the bulls are likely screwed. Bulls will maintain stock market buoyancy if they send VIX back below 22.15.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers in the week ahead the first on Tuesday when US markets come back on line after the Memorial Day holiday and the second on Friday morning. Trading in the month of May ends on Friday. 

Thank you to all the families of fallen soldiers; they gave the ultimate sacrifice for the rest of us. Those Caissons Go Rolling Along.

6/1/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/30/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/27/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 3:55 PM EST = +27; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 3:46 PM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 3:25 PM EST = +27; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 12:28 PM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 12:10 PM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 11:36 AM EST = +41; signal line is +34
5/23/25; 10:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/23/25; 7:53 AM EST = +27; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/22/25; 12:02 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/22/25; 11:47 AM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
5/22/25; 11:32 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/21/25; 2:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 8 points above the signal line. The bulls save the day today pumping copper to prevent the quant from flipping short. You can see that Keybot the Quant was champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move.

Copper, banks and utes are in the bull camp creating stock market joy while commodities create a dark cloud over the stock market. The battle continues.

Bulls must push GTX above 3652, now at 3641, to signal the all-clear for stock market party time and the march to SPX 6K.

Bears must keep GTX below 3652 and at the same time pull CPER below 29.15, or XLF below 49.30, or UTIL below 1008. Any 1 of the 3 turning bearish will be good enough to put the quant in status to go short. Then, if the SPX is below 5831 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Bears likely need to chop some wood on utilities to send them lower. Note that rates are rising and utilities should be sinking but they continue higher. This is due to the power requirements needed for the AI robots. The stock market is hyped-up on artificial intelligence with traders likely displaying a different AI: arrogant ignorance.

The banks need to fail about -2% to help the bears so keep an eye on those names and copper futures only need to drop -0.2% to turn CPER bearish. Thus, the obvious duel is between commodities, representing the bears, and copper, representing the bulls. It is a cage match. The two will enter the cage tomorrow but only one will exit and the stock market will follow that lead.

If copper futures are negative overnight and S&P futures are down 14 or more points, the stock market is in trouble and the quant will likely flip short. If banks lose about -2% that will accelerate any downside occurring with stocks. Bulls can make all their problems and worries go away if they attain GTX 3652.

5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/21/25; 2:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/21/25; 1:35 PM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
5/21/25; 10:38 AM EST = +41; signal line is +33
5/21/25; 10:22 AM EST = +55; signal line is +32
5/21/25; 10:15 AM EST = +41; signal line is +30
5/21/25; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +28
5/20/25; 3:36 PM EST = +41; signal line is +26
5/19/25; 1:40 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
5/19/25; 1:24 PM EST = +41; signal line is +23
5/19/25; 1:06 PM EST = +25; signal line is +21
5/19/25; 12:57 PM EST = +41; signal line is +20
5/19/25; 12:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +17
5/19/25; 12:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +15
5/19/25; 11:43 AM EST = +25; signal line is +13
5/19/25; 11:33 AM EST = +41; signal line is +10
5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 16 points above the signal line. The bulls goosed utilities last week to prevent stocks from falling apart. Equities move up and down as per the tariff news. The bulls are firmly in charge but in these erratic, unstable markets anything can happen.

Bulls need higher copper and commodities to prove they got game. Bears need weaker utilities and higher volatility to turn the tables on the bulls.

Bulls need CPER above 29.21 and/or GTX above 3654. Bears need UTIL below 1005 and/or VIX above 21.90.

It is a heavy lift for bears unless the utes collapse and retrace their orgy move last week.

Another potential path forward is the CPER and GTX metrics oscillating above and below their lines in the sand. If you see this behavior occurring, it likely means that the quant is preparing to go short. If copper and/or commodities jog above and below their key levels, that will likely bring the signal line higher to meet the algo number and the utilities weakening would not be necessary to flip the model short.

There are no pre-scheduled numbers this week. The bulls are enjoying a +20% and more move off the bottom with a strong and fast relief rally but now everyone is looking at each other wondering what is next.

5/25/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +9
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +7
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +5
5/15/25; 3:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +4

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 21 points above the signal line. However, copper and commodities are in the bear camp. CPER lands exactly on the 29.27 bull/bear line in the sand and copper futures are weak overnight so copper should stay with the bears.

Utilities are goosed higher yesterday to prevent the quant from setting up for the bears. Traders are buying the dips in utes consistently the last few months because the so-called coming AI boom will need lots of electrical power. The wealthy elite ruling class did not give a rat's arse about bringing power to poor and hungry people but AI technology is a different story. The common folks, such as miners working in the Blue Sky Mine, always get screwed for the sake of corporate greed and profits. It is what humans do.

Thus, the bulls are keeping equities elevated by pumping the utes. Bears need weaker utilities and higher volatility if they want to win the day. For now, the bulls are owning the joint walking around with their chests puffed-out. The 2 pre-scheduled numbers print this morning.

5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST =
5/15/25; 3:28 PM EST = +25; signal line is +4
5/15/25; 1:24 PM EST = +41; signal line is +3
5/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +0
5/14/25; 3:59 PM EST = +23; signal line is -2
5/14/25; 2:39 PM EST = +9; signal line is -3
5/14/25; 2:09 PM EST = +23; signal line is -3
5/14/25; 9:36 AM EST = +7; signal line is -5
5/13/25; 11:23 AM EST = +55; signal line is -5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with stocks flying to the moon. Equities are riding the roller coaster higher as Freddy sings Palisades Park. That's where the girls are. I gave that girl a hug, in the tunnel of love. Stocks catapult to the stratosphere as King Donnie announces a relaxation in China's tariffs. Go figure. Today, copper and commodities join the bull party sending equities to the Pleiades. Can't Stop.

The bulls are in obvious control annihilating the bears this week on the tariff happy talk. There is only bear carnage remaining. The algo number is 60 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising along with their feet up on the dash.

What next? Since copper and commodities are the latest to flip long, they remain important going forward so watch the CPER 29.30 and GTX 3658 bull/bear lines in the sand.

Bears will need more negativity than copper and commodities even if they turn bearish. The most interesting market metric at play today, that no one else is watching since they do not know what to watch, is the utilities. UTIL 999.54 and 1004.95 are two important bull/bear lines in the sand this week. Price has fallen to 1007 and teased the 1005 failure today.

The utes recovering in recent weeks took the dire scenario off the table for the US stock market but if utes roll over again, that hints at another major bout of trouble ahead for equities. Watch UTIL closely this week. 

The bulls are partying but the bears are sneaking around in the background setting up copper, commodities and utilities to launch a possible surprise attack. The bears probably need to run the table with CPER 29.30, GTX 3658, UTIL 1004.95 and UTIL 99.54 to likely flip Keybot the Quant to the short side. It is 4 dominoes that need to fall into place for the bears.

The algo only sees 1's and 0's so time will tell. For now, the bulls are drunk as skunks, drinking the bull frog's wine, singing songs of joy. Joy to the World.

5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST =
5/13/25; 11:23 AM EST = +55; signal line is -5
5/13/25; 10:13 AM EST = +41; signal line is -8
5/12/25; 10:39 AM EST = +25; signal line is -9
5/12/25; 10:11 AM EST = +39; signal line is -10
5/12/25; 10:02 AM EST = +25; signal line is -12
5/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +39; signal line is -13
5/12/25; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is -16
5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -18

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the stock market dancing on the head of a pin, Modern English, only one measly point separating the algo number and signal line.

The bulls remain in control of the stock market, by a thread, and need NYA above 19385 and/or VIX below 21.80. Both turning bullish will send stocks to the moon. The VIX fell to 21.83 on Friday testing the quant's bull/bear line in the sand and begins the new week at 21.90 only a dime away. It's just a shot away, shot away, shot away, as Bono, Fergie and Mick sing. Gimme Shelter, honey.

The bears need weaker chips and retail stocks to growl. Bears need SOX below 4350 and/or XRT below 69.82. If either parameter flips bearish, and the SPX drops below 5644 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Thus, the NYA index, volatility, semiconductors and retail stocks are all that matter for stock market direction.

The NYA is playing games oscillating above and below the critical 19383-19385 line in the sand. If this behavior continues, with a couple more jogs above and below this demarcation line, that tells you that the stock market is likely setting-up short. If the NYA continues the baby games, it actually makes the bear's job easier at flipping the stock market short. If the NYA jogs above and below 19385 a couple more times, and then fails below and starts to trend lower, and if the SPX drops below 5644 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

Monday is a key day. Either the NYA and VIX catapult stocks higher with the bulls throwing confetti and swigging-down Fed wine, or, semi's or retail stocks fail, or the NYA jogs above and below 19385 ending in failure, that will start a new path lower for the US stock market. 

5/18/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/16/25; 10:00 AM EST =
5/16/25; 9:00 AM EST =
5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST = -17; signal line is -18
5/9/25; 10:16 AM EST = -17; signal line is -19
5/9/25; 9:36 AM EST = -3; signal line is -21
5/8/25; 3:51 PM EST = -17; signal line is -23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market drama continues. The quant prints 4 numbers yesterday and 2 today and the battle continues at the NYA 19383 line in the sand. The bulls pushed price above this critical metric and were throwing confetti and singing songs but alas, the party turns ugly and NYA loses 19383 falling on its sword. Inside your ugly, ugly like me. Staind. There is likely more drama ahead with NYA 19383 since it is a major demarcation between a cyclical bull and cyclical bear market.

The bulls are in control but the algo number is only a measly 6 points above the signal line. That is nothing to write home about but the bulls are holding the ball and still running downfield. King Donnie pumped the chips so the SOX 4340 bull/bear resistance line was taken out as if it was not even there. The chip fun was sniffed out yesterday after munchtime well before the retail crowd knew what was going on. Welcome to corrupt Wall Street land of crony capitalism.

The bulls obviously need NYA above 19383 to prove that they have the strength to take stocks higher. Bulls will also send equities higher if VIX falls below 22.48 and this may occur overnight. If NYA moves above 19383, and VIX below 22.48, stocks will fly to the stratosphere. Shorts will panic creating an explosion higher in the stock market. If these two parameters do not turn bullish, however, the bulls got buptkis. Stocks will roll over and die. No More Mr Nice Guy.

The bears need to keep NYA below 19383 to prove that they maintain control of the cyclical bear market since March. In addition, bears need weaker chips, retail stocks and banks. King Donnie giveth and he often taketh away so he may say the opposite about chips tomorrow sinking the semiconductors. Bears need SOX below 4340 or XRT below 69.82 to take control of the stock market. If either metric flips short, the quant will be in position to flip to the short side, and likely will if the SPX falls below 5635 trending lower.

Watch NYA 19383, VIX 21.80, SOX 4340, and XRT 69.82. Nothing Else Matters.

5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/8/25; 3:51 PM EST = -17; signal line is -23
5/8/25; 11:39 AM EST = -3; signal line is -24
5/7/25; 3:47 PM EST = -17; signal line is -26
5/7/25; 1:32 PM EST = -33; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
5/7/25; 1:08 PM EST = -17; signal line is -28
5/7/25; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 3 points below the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch yesterday to allow the move to the short side so today will be interesting.

If the bears push the SPX below 5586, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence, the imminent turn notation is in the title line. This represents about a 20-point drop but S&P futures are up 30 points. The bears will be left at the altar if they do not get busy.

Copper jumped into the bull camp yesterday preventing the robot from flipping short but this morning copper futures are in the crapper; that will create stock market weakness.

It appears that the only way the bulls can stop the quant from flipping short is to send chips and retail stocks higher. The bulls need SOX above 4328 and/or XRT above 69.71 to keep the party going. You Gotta Fight for Your Right to Par-Tay. Both are easily doable with cash prices only pennies away from these bull/bear lines in the sand.

The stock market will likely idle until Pope Powell brings the tablets down from On High today to tell international traders how to trade. The robot wants to go short but the price action says stay long probably until Powell rides in on his pale green horse. Watch copper, chips, retail stocks, and of course the NYA 19383 line in the sand as mentioned previously.

5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = -33; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 3:33 PM EST = -17; signal line is -32
5/6/25; 12:54 PM EST = -33; signal line is -32 but algorithm remains long
5/6/25; 12:26 PM EST = -17; signal line is -32
5/6/25; 12:19 PM EST = -1; signal line is -33
5/6/25; 10:26 AM EST = -17; signal line is -34
5/6/25; 9:44 AM EST = -33; signal line is -35
5/6/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -35
5/5/25; 3:02 PM EST = -17; signal line is -36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with lots of push and pull occurring in the stock market. The bulls remain in control with the algo number 19 points above the signal line. Chips, retail stocks and banks are sending the stock market higher while copper, volatility, and the NYA and SPX indexes, are sending the stock market lower. The battle continues. The Beat Goes On.

Let's see, to give yinz something to watch, chips, copper and the NYA index will tell the near term story. Bulls need stronger copper and NYA above 19383 to wave the all-clear flag again for more upside gains. Stocks are typically higher going into a Fed meeting on hump day. Copper futures are a smidge lower right now. The stock market upside will stall if the NYA cannot get above 19383.

The bears need to keep the red metal red and NYA below 19383 if they want to start tearing flesh off the bulls. Bears need SOX below 4328 that will signal that the bears are gaining strength.

NYA 19383 and SPX 5740 are bigtime numbers since they are the demarcation lines of a cyclical bull versus a cyclical bear market going forward. Thus, NYA 19383 is likely the most important number to watch over the next couple days. If it turns bullish (price moves above 19383), start watching the SPX 5740 line in the sand since that would return the stock market to a cyclical bull market pattern. It is currently in a cyclical bear so these two numbers are key over the next week or two and will likely tell you the path forward for many weeks and months ahead.

You can see last Wednesday was a key day with the robot going wild over the 1's and 0's. That was a bear trap and luckily, the quant was not sucked-in.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. Yesterday was Cinco de Mayo so time to play the oversized bass (guitarron) and don a sombrero. Mariachi. Arriba, arriba! Andale, andale!

5/11/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/5/25; 3:02 PM EST = -17; signal line is -36
5/5/25; 2:11 PM EST = -3; signal line is -37
5/5/25; 1:03 PM EST = -17; signal line is -38
5/5/25; 12:02 PM EST = -3; signal line is -39
5/5/25; 10:11 AM EST = -17; signal line is -40
5/5/25; 9:36 AM EST = -1; signal line is -41
5/4/25; 7:00 PM EST = -3; signal line is -41
5/2/25; 12:06 PM EST = -3; signal line is -42
5/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -44
5/2/25; 9:00 AM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -49; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:47 PM EST = -49; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:36 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 3:17 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 2:41 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 1:31 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 1:16 PM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:48 PM EST = -49; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:28 PM EST = -65; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 12:10 PM EST = -49; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
4/30/25; 9:36 AM EST = -65; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
4/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = -33; signal line is -44
4/28/25; 2:28 PM EST = -31; signal line is -45
4/28/25; 12:06 PM EST = -47; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains long
4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = -31; signal line is -48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as King Donnie dials-back the tariff rhetoric sending stocks higher. The bulls are in control but the algo number is only 17 points above the signal line.

It is all about the banks. They are the main driver of the stock market currently. XLF finishes last week at 48.02 only one penny above the 48.01 bull/bear line in the sand identified by the robot before it happened. Thus, the XLF 48.01 demarcation line is the whole show tomorrow morning.

If bulls send XLF higher after the opening bell, the upside party continues for stocks. If the bears can push XLF below 48.01, consider the imminent turn notation to be in the title line. If the XLF fails at 48.01, and the SPX prints below 5456 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The banks slipping away would be an easy ask but the SPX would need to retrace about 70 points to the downside to get the negativity ball rolling downhill again.

The bulls saved utilities last week preventing a major stock market failure, at least for now. UTIL begins the week at 1021 with the bull/bear line in the sand at 1013. Bad things will happen in the short-term, and going forward in the intermediate and long-term, for the stock market if utilities slip away and go sub 1013 and then sub 1000.

Commodities remain key and bulls need GTX above 3680 to prove that they got the juice to take stocks higher.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, another on Wednesday evening that closes out the month (EOM), and another on Friday morning before the opening bell. Watch the banks tomorrow morning. XLF will tell you the answer in the pre-market.

5/4/25; 7:00 PM EST =
5/2/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/30/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = -31; signal line is -48
4/25/25; 2:41 PM EST = -31; signal line is -50
4/25/25; 1:51 PM EST = -47; signal line is -52
4/25/25; 1:12 PM EST = -31; signal line is -54
4/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -56
4/25/25; 9:57 AM EST = -47; signal line is -56
4/24/25; 12:31 PM EST = -31; signal line is -56
4/23/25; 11:51 AM EST = -47; signal line is -57
4/23/25; 10:07 AM EST = -31; signal line is -55
4/23/25; 9:49 AM EST = -15; signal line is -54
4/23/25; 9:36 AM EST = -31; signal line is -54
4/22/25; 10:41 AM EST = -47; signal line is -54; go long 5254 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -10.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +5.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +9.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side this morning before munchtime at SPX 5254. Utilities run higher with an upside move so obscene it would make Caligula blush.  Utes and copper are holding-up the US stock market; everything else is in the crapper. The joyous rally today and happy futures this evening (S&P futures +100) are due to King Donnie backpedaling on the Powell besmirchment nonsense. The orange head says he will not fire Powell. Of course not, the idiot realized that he was only negotiating with himself while destroying the markets.

So the party is back on and now it is time to meet a hep girl at Big Town, as Roy sings. A classic. The bulls are running the show again with the algo number only 7 measly points above the signal line but that was enough to take control.

Utes, copper, banks and commodities are all that matter currently. Utes and copper are in the bull camp creating happy time. Banks and commodities are in the bear camp so if the bulls want to create upside strength, instead of petering out right away, they need these two parameters to flip bullish.

Bulls need XLF above 48.00 and/or GTX above 3680 to create strong upside in US stocks. If both turn bullish, stocks will be catapulting to the moon.

If status quo, with XLF and GTX remaining bearish and utes and copper bullish, stocks will stagger along sideways with a slight upward bias.

If UTIL loses the 1000 level, or if CPER loses 29.13, the Party Is Over, as Willie sings, and it is time to restart the beatings in the shed out behind the garage.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program gains about +4% and the actual trading gains about +3%. For the year, now well into Q2, the SPX benchmark is puking -11%. The quant program is up about +5% and the actual trading is up double-digits on the year +10%. The actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark index by a huge 21 percentage-points. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Everyone else is cryin' and moanin' about losing their shirts; they should have stuck with the robot. Keybot the Quant exited SH and entered SPY remaining in the single 1x ETF's for another 11 days until the whipsaw timer expires. After 11 more days, the quant will use the 2x leveraged ETF's again when it changes direction, as long as whipsaw choppy slop is not occurring.

Utilities and copper can immediately tell you if the stock market is falling flat on its face if they fail. Banks and commodities tell you if there is further glory ahead for the bulls, or if it is a faux rally.

4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/25; 10:00 AM EST =
4/22/25; 10:41 AM EST = -47; signal line is -54; go long 5254 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -10.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +4.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +5.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +9.5%)
4/22/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains short
4/21/25; 11:52 AM EST = -63; signal line is -52
4/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = -47; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
4/18/25; 11:15 AM EST = -47; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
4/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -48
4/17/25; 11:21 AM EST = -47; signal line is -47 but algorithm remains short
4/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -46
4/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -44
4/16/25; 10:49 AM EST = -47; signal line is -43
4/16/25; 10:33 AM EST = -63; signal line is -41
4/16/25; 10:26 AM EST = -47; signal line is -40
4/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -39
4/14/25; 1:32 PM EST = -47; signal line is -38
4/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = -63; signal line is -37
4/11/25; 1:46 PM EST = -63; signal line is -36
4/11/25; 12:22 PM EST = -79; signal line is -34
4/11/25; 10:00 AM EST = -95; signal line is -32
4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = -95; signal line is -28
4/4/25; 12:45 PM EST = -95; signal line is -24
4/4/25; 12:21 PM EST = -79; signal line is -21
4/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -18
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16
4/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -15; go short 5488 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.0%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -5.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +6.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 4 points above the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch on Friday so the quant remains short to begin the new week of trading. S&P futures are in the tank down -61 because of King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War and his badgering of Fed Chairman Powell trying to force him to cut rates. Stocks will crash bigtime if Trump tries to fire Powell; it would be a major crisis. The dollar drops as foreign investors lose confidence in the orange head. S&P futures were down -13 last evening, only about 8 or 9 hours ago, and then news hits that China will continue retaliating against the Trump tariffs, followed by King Donnie's further besmirching of Powell on social media so that takes about 50 points off the futures.

Dr Copper is running the show currently along with commodities and banks. Copper is creating the remaining buoyancy in the stock market along with utilities. Copper futures are up right now going against the negativity in the S&P futures. Bears need CPER below 29.13, starting at 29.47, but it will likely bump higher after the opening bell. The downside in futures and stocks may be short-lived this morning with copper remaining bullish. However, if CPER loses 29.13, there will be Hell to pay.

Bulls need the SPX above 5256 trending higher to flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. The futures say that stocks will drop instead of pop so the bulls will be left at the altar in the early going.

Bulls need GTX above 3685 and XLF above 48.07 to create strong upside in stocks.

The quant wants to flip long but only if the SPX moves above 5256 today. If that occurs, and then the bulls bring GTX and/or XLF into their camp, stocks will be in a joyous relief rally.

Bears must prevent SPX 5256 with all their might today and at the same time send CPER below 29.13. It is an extremely important bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls are using copper to pull themselves out of the darkness but the bears want to drag the red metal lower destroying the bull's hopes. CPER 29.13, SPX 5256 and GTX 3685 tell you all you need to know about the US stock market direction today.

As an aside, watch utilities this week. For the period 4/28/25 through 5/9/25 (the 2 weeks after this week), UTIL (DJU) 1013 will be a pivotal bull/bear line in the sand. Thus, the closing price for UTIL this week on Friday at 4 PM EST will tell the story ahead. If UTIL ends the week above 1013, a relief rally is either underway or about to begin and a crash scenario for the stock market is off the table for a few weeks. If, however, UTIL loses ground this week and ends below 1013, that spells big trouble ahead and places the US stock market back into a crash profile in the near term.

4/27/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/25/25; 10:00 AM EST =
4/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = -47; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
4/18/25; 11:15 AM EST = -47; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
4/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -48
4/17/25; 11:21 AM EST = -47; signal line is -47 but algorithm remains short
4/17/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -46
4/17/25; 9:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -44
4/16/25; 10:49 AM EST = -47; signal line is -43
4/16/25; 10:33 AM EST = -63; signal line is -41
4/16/25; 10:26 AM EST = -47; signal line is -40
4/15/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -39
4/14/25; 1:32 PM EST = -47; signal line is -38
4/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = -63; signal line is -37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The algo was quiet last week only printing 3 numbers, all on Friday, and one was a pre-scheduled number. The bears remain in charge of the stock market with the algo number 26 points below the signal line.

Utilities recovered last week so this puts the crash scenario on the back burner. UTIL begins at 996 and needs to move above 1002 in the first few minutes of trading tomorrow morning to continue the positivity so watch it closely. If UTIL fails to achieve 1002, sogginess will come into the stock market.

Bulls must push UTIL above 1002 while bears need to keep it below. If bulls can push UTIL above 1002, the focus will be on copper and banks. Bulls need CPER above 29.12 and XLF above 48.31 to wrestle-back stock market control.

4/20/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/17/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = -63; signal line is -37
4/11/25; 1:46 PM EST = -63; signal line is -36
4/11/25; 12:22 PM EST = -79; signal line is -34
4/11/25; 10:00 AM EST = -95; signal line is -32
4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = -95; signal line is -28

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with a new week of fun ahead. The algo number is 67 points below the signal line so the bears are in full control of the US stock market.

Copper and utes sh*t the bed on Friday creating the market mayhem so it is very likely that a relief rally for stocks would occur as/when/if utes and copper recover.

Monday is 3 scenarios. UTIL 987.26 and 994.50 are two key bull/bear lines in the sand. UTIL begins the week at 974 in the bear camp creating stock market negativity. If UTIL remains below 987.26, the beatings in the shed behind the garage will continue uninterrupted. The Interrupters.

If UTIL regains 987.26, the stock market will stabilize and at least stop falling. If UTIL rises above 994, the relief rally for stocks will likely be underway. The bears are growling like Alice singing No More Mr Nice Guy. The bears are feelin' mean.

Keybot the Quant prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell.

4/13/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/11/25; 10:00 AM EST =
4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = -95; signal line is -28
4/4/25; 12:45 PM EST = -95; signal line is -24

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market crashes. Copper and utilities fail on Friday opening a trap-door to blood and carnage below. It is ugly. The algo number is 71 points below the signal line. It does not get any more negative than that. Equities are in a Breakdown, as Tom used to sing. The stock market is a mess circling the drain. 

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 12:45 PM EST = -95; signal line is -24
4/4/25; 12:21 PM EST = -79; signal line is -21
4/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = -63; signal line is -18
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST = -47; signal line is -16
4/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -15; go short 5488 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.0%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -5.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +6.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips back to the bear side after the opening bell at SPX 5488 as was expected but the damage has been done. The bears are in control with the algo number 32 points below the signal line. King Donnie started the Trump Trade and Tariff War today calling it a liberation day because you are liberated from your money.

Banks, the NYA index and commodities took the pipe at the opening bell. Commodities had remained buoyant for many weeks supporting the bull case but that support has crumbled. Watch the GTX 3728 bull/bear line in the sand with price starting tomorrow at 3714. Bulls need GTX above 3728 to stabilize the stock market. If price remains below, the beatings will continue.

Copper is back in play for the first time in a long time. Bears need CPER below 29.65 and another ugly leg lower will occur for stocks. This represents about a -1.4% drop in copper futures so you can watch that overnight.

Tomorrow is the US Jobs Report so it will create drama. The robot is tracking commodities and copper with top interest. It is a cage match. Two enter but only one will exit. Bulls win with GTX above 3728. Bears win with CPER below 29.65. If the battle continues, stocks will stutter sideways until the victor raises his fist.

On the last trade that only ran for a few hours, the algo program loses -3% and the actual trading loses -5%. The drop would have been worse if Keybot would have been in a different index ETF but the Dow was the least dirty shirt in the laundry today (lucky it was in the que). For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is getting slapped silly down almost -7% in Q1. The quant program is up +1% on the year and the actual trading generated by the robot is up about +6% taking it on the chin overnight because of the orange head's protectionism games but still outperforming the SPX benchmark by 13 percentage-points. Keybot exited DDM and entered SH dropping down into the 1x ETF's since the whipsaw timer was triggered. The robot will remain in the single ETF's for 30 days since it senses choppy whipsaw slop ahead.

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = -47; signal line is -15; go short 5488 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -6.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.0%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +0.9%)(Actual results this trade = -5.1%; Actual results for 2025 = +6.4%)
4/2/25; 11:27 AM EST = -3; signal line is -13; go long 5656; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long at 5656 before munch time today but obviously, the timing is bad since King Donnie is trashing the stock market this evening after he kicks off the Trump Trade and Tariff War. S&P futures are in the tank down a couple hundo points about -3.4%. A 2x leveraged ETF to the long side is going to get bludgeoned by about -7% tomorrow if futures remain extremely negative.

This week is all about the NYA, SPX and banks. NYA 19365, SPX 5715 and XLF 49.67 are the bull/bear lines in the sand. XLF and NYA are creating bullishness while SPX is in the bear camp. Tomorrow all will likely be in the bear camp.

Do not be surprised if the quant flips back to the short side tomorrow and if so, it will be a hefty loss. Fortunately, the actual trading is up about +12% this year. Markets will be a mess overnight so you have to wait for the smoke to clear. 

On the last trade that ran for only 4 trading days, the quant program and actual trading log marginal losses. For the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is down about -4% while the algo program is up about +4% and actual trading generated by the quant up about +12%. Keybot exited SDS and entered DDM.

It looks like a Black Thursday is on tap. Trump flushed the stock market down the toilet with his protectionism a la the 1930's.

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST =
4/2/25; 11:27 AM EST = -3; signal line is -13; go long 5656; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +3.9%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.5%)
4/2/25; 10:29 AM EST = -3; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains short
4/2/25; 10:06 AM EST = -17; signal line is -14
4/2/25; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
4/1/25; 3:59 PM EST = -3; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
4/1/25; 3:48 PM EST = -19; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 1:33 PM EST = -33; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 1:25 PM EST = -19; signal line is -11
4/1/25; 11:04 AM EST = -3; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains short
4/1/25; 10:59 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12
4/1/25; 9:41 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
4/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = -17; signal line is -12
3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = -3; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
3/31/25; 3:10 PM EST = -3; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains short
3/31/25; 2:42 PM EST = -19; signal line is -14
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
3/28/25; 10:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -16
3/28/25; 10:11 AM EST = -19; signal line is -17; go short 5643; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -4.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 19 points below the signal line. Lots of drama is ahead this week with Hollywood Donnie's Trump Trade and Tariff War kicking into high gear on Wednesday. 

Bulls need NYA above 19335, SPX above 5662, and/or XLF above 49.76, otherwise, they are toast. The NYA and SPX targets are the lines in the sand for a cyclical bear market going forward. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will stop the stock market selling. 2 of the 3 turning bullish will start a comeback rally for stocks. If all 3 turn bullish, it may signal the start of a relief rally with legs, if King Donnie does not throw a wrench (spanner) into the works.

Bears need lower commodities and utes and need to pull GTX below 3728 and/or UTIL below 992. Stocks will take another leg lower and the SPX will test the 5505 prior low if either one fails.

Despite the big Friday selloff and soggy stock market, the utilities are holding up. Traders and investors still think like decades ago putting money into utes and staples believing they will hold up better in a recession. UTIL begins the week at 1011. If 992 fails, the stock market will be in serious trouble. Everything up to now is baby games, but if 992 fails, things are going to get real ugly. If UTIL fails at 986-987, the US stock market will likely crash and headed for a loss of from -20% to -80% (from the February 2025 record top) over the next couple years. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

If the bulls can hold the line with utes maintaining bullishness, the stock market will likely bottom over the next couple weeks and start a substantive relief rally. Thus, you have 5 metrics above controlling the fate of the stock market going forward. Simply watch those metrics which dictate what direction stocks are going.

Keybot the Quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow night for EOM and EOQ1 and the other on Friday morning before the opening bell. 

4/6/25; 7:00 PM EST =
4/4/25; 9:00 AM EST =
3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short at 10:11 AM EST Friday morning at SPX 5643. It was a bloody day for the stock market, call it a mini-crash, as several metrics failed sending stocks to Hades. The algo number is 19 points below the signal line which is not much in these choppy, whipsaw markets with daily Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff War drama mixed-in with Fed indecision and stubborn inflation.

The critical SPX 5662 and NYA 19335 bull/bear lines in the sand, that signal a cyclical bear market for the US stock market, failed yesterday morning and the rout was on. This failure points to many weeks and months of stock market sogginess ahead. Bulls desperately need to push the indexes back above the lines in the sand, otherwise, they are toast and the selling will only increase from here.

The banks also failed yesterday creating market mayhem. XLF drops below its key 49.76 line in the sand so the pain and misery deepened. 

The bears are in control but need to maintain weakness in SPX, NYA and XLF while at the same time turning commodities, copper and utilities bearish. All three are joyful so it is a tough ask. Watch the UTIL 992 level and then 986-987. The stock market will go into a crash profile at UTIL 992 and will crash if UTIL loses 986-987. It will be fun.

The bulls need to focus all their might on NYA 19335. Price begins Monday morning at 19270. If the NYA pops above 1933, it tells you that the stock market will stabilize and the selling will stop. A rally may not begin but it will at least stop the downside bleeding. If NYA remains below 19335 and trending lower, and you are a bull holding on to long positions, you will be beaten further into submission, and the blood will continue to flow on Wall and Broad.

The first quarter ends on Monday so there was some reverse window dressing in the market. For the quarterly statements, some of the investment houses may not want to show losing stocks like semiconductors in the funds, so they sell them off a la Friday, and on the statement they will be gone making the investor feel okay, even though the fund lost money on that stock and ditched it. This is called the Wall Street casino game. Remember it as you look at your quarterly statement and realize these folks are a bunch of crooks.

On the last trade that ran for a couple weeks, the algo program is a marginal loss and the actual trading loses a percent. For the year thus far with Q1 in the bag on Monday, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -4.1%. The Wall Street analysts that promised SPX 7K and more this year are in full retreat with 5 hundo and more points chopped from their old estimates for their new estimates. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +4.1% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +11.9%. The quant program is outperforming the benchmark SPX index by 8 percentage-points and the actual trading is beating the benchmark by 16 percentage-points. There is still a lot of year remaining. Keybot exited SSO and entered SDS.

NYA 19335, SPX 5662 and XLF 49.76 will tell you everything you need to know on Monday.

3/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 =
3/30/25; 7:00 PM EST =  
3/28/25; 11:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -14
3/28/25; 11:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
3/28/25; 10:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -16
3/28/25; 10:11 AM EST = -19; signal line is -17; go short 5643; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -4.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2025 = +11.9%)
3/28/25; 10:10 AM EST = -3; signal line is -18
3/28/25; 10:00 AM EST = +11; signal line is -20
3/28/25; 9:36 AM EST = +11; signal line is -22
3/27/25; 12:00 PM EST = -5; signal line is -25
3/27/25; 10:06 AM EST = +11; signal line is -26
3/25/25; 3:48 PM EST = -5; signal line is -29
3/25/25; 3:26 PM EST = -21; signal line is -31
3/25/25; 1:03 PM EST = -5; signal line is -33
3/25/25; 10:11 AM EST = -21; signal line is -34
3/25/25; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is -35
3/25/25; 9:38 AM EST = -2; signal line is -37
3/24/25; 9:44 AM EST = +14; signal line is -39
3/24/25; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -42
3/23/25; 7:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is -44
3/21/25; 3:59 PM EST = -18; signal line is -46
3/20/25; 1:29 PM EST = -32; signal line is -47
3/20/25; 10:01 AM EST = -18; signal line is -48
3/20/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -49
3/19/25; 2:48 PM EST = -18; signal line is -50
3/18/25; 9:36 AM EST = -32; signal line is -51
3/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
3/17/25; 1:39 PM EST = -18; signal line is -53
3/17/25; 1:35 PM EST = -32; signal line is -53; go long 5667; (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = -3.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +4.5%)(Actual results this trade = +13.6%; Actual results for 2025 = +13.2%)