STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side this morning at SPX 6880 after the opening bell as the sideways choppy pig slop continues this year. 2026 is almost 2 months along and there is nothing to show for it except chop suey. The choppy markets chew up bulls and bears alike, and even algo's, but the jukes and jives continue.

Doctor Copper receives a shot of morphine and is up dancing around creating bullishness again. Ditto retail sales. These two metrics shot the stock market higher and enough to cause the robot to flip long this morning. Stocks are still going nowhere because after todays theatrics, the SPX sits at 6881.

Thursday is a tag team cage match with the bullish retail stocks and copper versus the bearish financials and volatility. These metrics tell you the stock market direction ahead.

Bulls need XLF above 53.49 and/or VIX below 17.52 to prove they got game and SPX 7K will be on tap.

Bears need to pull XRT below 87.62 and/or CPER below 35.18. Either one will do to immediately stop the rally and create stock market sogginess. If both fail, stocks will reverse hard to the downside. If 1 of the 2 turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 6850, the quant will likely flip short, so the drama continues. If the status quo remains, stocks will muddle along sideways until one of the parameters flinch and that will tell you the answer.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading gain about a percent. For the year thus far, consisting of choppy whipsaw slop, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, is up about a percent. The Keybot the Quant program is down about three percent and the actual trading is down a percent on the year. It is a whole lot of nothing with stocks doing a lot of gyrating, but not moving anywhere, like Waylon and Jessi singing at the honky-tonk last night. Great duet. Honky Tonk Angels. Keybot exits DOG and enters DIA remaining in the single ETF's until the whipsaw timer expires that should be 3/3/26 when 2x ETF's will be in the cue again, if another whipsaw does not occur before then.

Retail sales are likely going to tell the story tomorrow and lo and behold, WMT earnings are on tap in the morning. It is all set up for the bulls and bears and Walmart decides who is king. The Easter stuff is being put out on the shelves as they try to unload massive Valentines Day junk that no one wanted, or could afford to buy. It sits there even at 50% off that is probably the cost of goods sold for Walmart (about where they breakeven on the product hoping to just usher it out the door). Cupid is replaced by the Easter Bunny. Sammy Cooke sang Cupid that was a bigtime hit song.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)
2/18/26; 9:47 AM EST = +24; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
2/18/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST = -8; signal line is +14
2/17/26; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
2/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 11:12 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/12/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 8:54 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/12/26; 8:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 2:29 PM EST = +22; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 11:06 AM EST = +8; signal line is +15
2/11/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +15; go short 6941 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short and the position is reinforced with Doctor Copper falling out of bed this morning onto the top of retail stocks and then both fell down the cellar steps. The bears have copper, retail stocks, banks and volatility in their camp. The bears are in charge with the algo number 25 points below the signal line.

The bears are cruising taking stocks lower and will create carnage if the chips, commodities and utilities would weaken.

The bulls need at least 2 of the following 4 lines in the sand to turn bullish if they want to flip the robot to the long side; XRT 87.58, CPER 35.18, XLF 53.50 and VIX 17.52. If none of the 4 turn bullish, there will be further Hell to pay. 1 of the 4 turning bullish will stop the downside slide in stocks. If 2 of the 4 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side back in play, and if the SPX moves above 6867, Keybot the Quant would likely flip long.

The bulls need stronger retail stocks, copper, and banks, and lower volatility. Bulls are screwed going forward unless they jam the VIX back below 17.52.

The robot prints a prescheduled number in the morning, on Ash Wednesday. Today is the Lunar New year, the new moon peaks for the month so this may be a soggy time for stocks, and Fat Tuesday. If Iran will be hit by Israel and the United States, it will likely be over the coming days under the new moon since the Allies have the superior night vision equipment and weaponry.

Another prescheduled number prints on Friday shortly after the opening bell. The stock market casino is swinging. The gamblers sit down to try their luck against Kenny, The Gambler.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/17/26; 10:12 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
2/17/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot wants to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters will not yet latch to permit the move. If the SPX moves above 6882, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. That represents a +46 gain so the bulls have some work to do.

US markets are closed tomorrow for the Presidents Day holiday and trading resumes on Tuesday so the bulls need to show up with S&P futures at +46 and higher.

The battle for market direction is controlled by retail stocks and copper creating bullishness versus banks and volatility creating bearishness. Whichever team gains the third member, that is the direction of stocks.

The bears need XRT below 87.53 and/or CPER below 35.18. Bears need weaker retail stocks and WMT will be a focus in the week ahead. Copper futures need to drop about -1.1% to help the bears so keep an eye on the red metal. The copper orgy may have ran its course.

The bulls need XLF above 54 but now has a 51 handle and sinking faster than the middle class. Bulls need VIX below 17.35 to get back in the game. Volatility is key. Plain and simple. If VIX remains above 17.35, the bears will win going forward. If VIX drops below 17.35, the bulls are back in biz and stocks will begin moving higher again.

Thus, watch XRT 87.53, CPER 35.18 and VIX 17.35 to forecast the stock market direction over the coming days. The banksters will probably languish.

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers during the holiday-shortened week one on Wednesday morning and the other on Friday morning. Bulls will root for lower vol while bears will cheer for weaker retail stocks and copper. We may be heading down Copperhead Road again, so be careful down that way.

2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/18/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 7 points above the signal line. The internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the flip to the long side yet so here we sit through the Presidents Day holiday on Monday. Stocks will trade again on Tuesday.

Utilities are having an orgy party. The move was obscene last week and no one talks about it. The action in utilities will help create ongoing buoyancy in stocks. The four parameters that are controlling stock market direction now are retail stocks, banks, volatility, and, ......  wait for it...... wait a bit longer .... copper. Metals have been in the bull camp so it is interesting to see that they may be running out of gas.

Utes, retail stocks and copper are creating stock market bullishness. Banks and volatility are creating bearishness. Retail stocks rallied on Friday that helped to keep the broad stock market buoyant.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/13/26; 11:54 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 11:12 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17
2/12/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/12/26; 8:54 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/12/26; 8:46 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is back on the short side at SPX 6941 before munchtime today. The tug-o-war continues. The jobs number was better than expected so traders and investors do not expect rate cuts anytime soon. The absence of easy money rate cuts, that pump stocks higher to reward the wealthy class, creates the sogginess in stocks today. It is called crony capitalism filth.

Utes, retail stocks, banksters and volatility are all that matter. Utilities must have taken Viagra because the move higher was obscene helping the bulls.

The other three parameters, however, are in the bear camp creating the weak stock market and the flip short today for the quant. The algo number is only 8 points below the signal line so the robot may flip back long tomorrow. The price action is nauseating.

No wonder the bulls would not let utilities fall and instead kept pumping Ethel all day long. UTIL leaps to 1120 and it is understandable why. Next week, the 1112 line in the sand is meaningless and replaced with 1127. Thus, the bulls are trying to pump UTIL up towards or over 1127 to start next week on a high note. There are two days remaining this week so watch UTIL, or DJU, and where it ends at 4 PM EST Friday since that will provide a heads-up for Tuesday (Monday closed for Presidents Day). If UTIL is above 1127 to start next week, it is happy time for bulls. If UTIL starts the week below 1127, there is likely Hell to pay. If UTIL falls below 1112 tomorrow or Friday, the gates to Hades will open.

Bulls need XRT above 87.53, XLF above 54.02, and or VIX below 17.24. Any of the three could flip bullish tomorrow. The bulls only need one to turn bullish and that will set things up for a rally, and 2 of the 3 will send stocks strongly higher, and 3 of 3 turning bullish will create a party atmosphere into the weekend with a Monday holiday. If all 3 remain bearish tomorrow and Friday, it is an old man holding a lantern on a dark sidewalk telling you that 'the end is nigh'.

On the last trade that ran for three days, the algo program and the actual trading each log marginal gains. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is up about a percent, the quant program is down about -3% and the actual trading is down about a percent. It is a whole lot of nothing as the chop suey is rammed down everyone's throats. Keybot the Quant exits DIA and enters DOG.

You can watch utes, retail stocks, banks and volatility and ignore everything else. Let's see if the bears got game or if they will fold like a cheap suit. Sharp Dressed Man. Lovely ladies. ZZ Top.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 2:52 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 2:29 PM EST = +22; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains short
2/11/26; 11:06 AM EST = +8; signal line is +15
2/11/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +15; go short 6941 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.5%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.2%)
2/11/26; 10:58 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/11/26; 10:25 AM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/11/26; 10:03 AM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/11/26; 9:36 AM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/11/26; 8:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/10/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 1:46 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 1:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16
2/9/26; 3:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/9/26; 3:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/9/26; 11:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +14
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is long but champing at the bit to go short. The internal parameters will not permit the move yet with the algo number 8 points below the signal line. Today was nutso as the odd market behavior continues. Four parameters are controlling stock market direction currently.

Banks started out happy today but rolled over due to weak insurers and reinsurers (the insurers that insure the insurers) taking the stock market down. Utilities catapult to the moon on more data center hype and billions upon billions of dollars being spent on technology that can make endless funny video shorts.

The Fed and others were jamming volatility low to help stocks recover but that task was abandoned and led to lower stocks in the afternoon. On top of all this price action, retail stocks decide to sh*t the bed at the end of the day on weak earnings numbers. The wealthy class enjoyed lavish expensive holiday gifts this season while the majority of America made cookies and exchanged tins after shopping for Christmas presents at the local thrift store; the have's and have-not's of America.

So that is the mess that is the stock market that has been on hold this week waiting for the jobs report tomorrow morning, on a Wednesday. Jackasses. With all this drama ongoing, the robot wants to flip to the short side. We shall see if the jobs numbers change the scenario.

The robot wants to flip short now and all it needs is for the SPX to drop 4 points below 6938. It is on a silver platter for the bears if they want it. The bears also need to pull UTIL below 1111.57, only 4 pennies away at 1111.61 creating bullishness in stocks. How about a shout-out to the robot for telling yinz to watch 1111.57 and price closes at 1111.61. Come on now. Who else told you that target number before it would happen? No one. Keep an eye on 1111.57 since it obviously takes on import now.

So the bears need SPX below 6938 to flip the quant short, all things staying the same as they are now, and will receive extra downside gusto if UTIL fails below 1111.57.

The bulls need XLF above 54.03, XRT above 87.53 and/or VIX below 17.22. All 3 metrics are creating the bearishness in the stock market right now. If the bulls can get at least one of the three in their camp, they will be back in business with no fears of downside. You can gauge upside strength in stocks by how many of the three turn bullish. If all three remain bearish, it is time to gird your loins because stocks will likely falter and weaken. Easy-peasy.

Keybot the Quant prints the prescheduled number for this week tomorrow morning before the opening bell. Bulls and bears are in their camps getting ready for the big battle tomorrow. A lonely harmonica plays "Shenandoah" that echoes down the hollow. Both sides know the stakes are high tomorrow and only one side can win. Such a sad song during war because men knew that some of them would die in tomorrow's battle.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/10/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 1:46 PM EST = +24; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 1:07 PM EST = +8; signal line is +17 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +17
2/10/26; 11:07 AM EST = +8; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/10/26; 9:51 AM EST = +24; signal line is +16
2/9/26; 3:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/9/26; 3:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/9/26; 11:44 AM EST = +38; signal line is +14
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the sloppy market action continues. The euphoric orgy on Friday is one for the record books. Interestingly, the buying volume in that party atmosphere could not overcome any of the last three days' selling volume. This activity hints that the smart money is ditching stocks left and right as the dumb money is tripping over each other to buy, buy, buy, like the guy on television says, afraid of missing the next big up move. Time will tell. The algo number is 12 points above the signal line giving the nod to the bulls.

Utilities, banks and volatility are the key stock market drivers lately. The utility lines in the sand are UTIL 1069 and UTIL 1112. Price begins the week at 1089 in the middle. UTIL is below 1112 creating stock market bearishness while it is also above 1069 creating market bullishness. The next month is critical to find out if a bigtime crash is at hand. It is time to sh*t, or get off the pot.

If UTIL slips below 1069, it is setting the stock market up for a major drop if not an all-out crash. If UTIL does not fall below 1069, any pullback in stocks will be run of the mill and nothing to get too worked up about. The 1069 is a warning that blood and carnage is ahead. If UTIL pops above 1112, the bulls have the upper hand going forward and any significant top in the market is likely off the table for several weeks forward even a month or three. The 1107 to 1128 range is key for the next month. Bulls need to get up into this range and they will be fine. Bears need the 1069 to fail. If bears do not pull it off over the next month, they will likely run out of gas and fold like a cheap suit.

XLF 53.99 is the line in the sand with price at 54.26. The banksters created much of the Friday joy. If XLF falls below 53.99, the stock market will noticeably weaken.

VIX 17.10 is the line in the sand with price at a patriotic 17.76. It is extremely odd that VIX did not drop below 17 on Friday with the euphoric rally. The bulls need VIX to drop below 17.10 in overnight trading into the Monday session to prove that they got game. If VIX remains above 17.10, the rally joy will turn into sadness and despair. Bulls must push VIX below 17 or they got nothing.

Bulls need UTIL above 1112 and VIX below 17.10. Either one will show that the bulls got strength and then they will work towards securing the other parameter.

Bears need UTIL below 1069 that will create serious stock market pain and XLF below 53.99. Bears got nothing unless they can beat the banksters down.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Wednesday. The Presidents Day holiday is the following Monday so stocks may be buoyant on Thursday and Friday heading into the 3-day weekend. Hey Andy, are you goofin' on Elvis, are you having fun? Man on the Moon.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at muchtime at SPX 6908 where it started from 3 days before. The choppy whipsaw garbage slop continues just like early last year. Banks and volatility control the show.

Banks rally this morning so stocks move higher and then the buy-the-dip crowd goes insane buying any stock with a heartbeat. XLF 53.97 is the line in the sand. Price is above creating bullishness. When XLF falls back below 53.97, stocks will turn sour again.

VIX 17.11 is a line in the sand. Price is above creating bearishness in the stock market. XLF and VIX are the yin and the yang of the market these days. Either VIX drops below 17.11 to signal the all-clear for a huge upside rally, or, XLF falls below 53.97 to signal blood and carnage ahead for stocks.

On the last trade that ran for 3 days, the quant program was flat but the actual trading gains a percent because the robot was in PSQ an inverse tech ETF and that is the sector that got crushed. Sometimes the robot benefits from the ETF in the hopper and sometimes it goes the other way. For the year thus far, now into February on the back side of winter in the northern hemisphere, the benchmark SPX is up a percent. The quant program is down about -4% in 2026 and the actual trading generated by the quant is down a couple percent. Keybot the Quant exited PSQ and entered DIA.

The banks and volatility will tell you the path forward. Do not be surprised if a whipsaw occurs back to the short side over the next day or three. 

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)
2/6/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
2/6/26; 9:36 AM EST = +24; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
2/5/26; 10:43 AM EST = +8; signal line is +11
2/5/26; 10:36 AM EST = -8; signal line is +11
2/4/26; 3:59 PM EST = +8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 2:52 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
2/4/26; 1:29 PM EST = +8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 12:43 PM EST = -8; signal line is +12
2/4/26; 12:38 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14
2/4/26; 12:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
2/4/26; 11:49 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14
2/4/26; 11:35 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains short
2/3/26; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6904 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at munchtime today at SPX 6904. The chop suey continues and a whipsaw move occurs. This price action will keep the robot in the single ETF's for another month.

It is a broken record. Utes, banks, volatility and retail stocks are running the show especially banks and volatility today. The bears take the ball back due to weak banks and higher volatility. This game continues with utilities and retail stocks trying to take the field, the marching band refused to yield, do you recall what was revealed, the day the music died? American Pie. Super talent.

The bull/bear lines in the sand are VIX 17.10, XLF 53.97, XRT 87.12 and UTIL 1069. Volatility and banks are creating the stock market negativity. Retail stocks and utes create market lift preventing stocks from collapsing.

The whipsaw threat continues and the bulls may take the ball back tomorrow. It is choppy slop. Focus on VIX 17.10 and XLF 53.97. If volatility falls and banks rise, the bulls are back in business. If either parameter turns bullish, consider the whipsaw back to the long side in play, and if the SPX is above 6993, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long again. If both parameters turn bullish, the quant may flip long around 6973.

The table is set. Watch volatility and banks.

On the last trade that ran for one day, the quant program and the actual trading each lose a percent. For the year thus far, the algo program is down about -4%, the actual trading is down about -3% and the benchmark S&P 500 is up a percent. Keybot the Quant exits QQQ and enters PSQ. The beat goes on.

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/3/26; 12:34 PM EST = +8; signal line is +14; go short 6904 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2026 = -2.8%)
2/3/26; 11:00 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
2/3/26; 10:17 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15
2/3/26; 9:46 AM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/3/26; 9:36 AM EST = +22; signal line is +16
2/2/26; 2:43 PM EST = +38; signal line is +16
2/2/26; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15; go long 6974 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long today at SPX 6974 after Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow forecasting six more weeks of bullishness, er snow. Retail stocks and volatility jump into the arms of the bulls this morning creating the upside joy. It looked like carnage time early this morning but the stick save was in place once again by the opening bell.

XLF 53.99 is the line in the sand and the bulls almost broke up through, but were spanked back down, so watch the banks closely for stock market direction. Also XRT 87.06 is key and price blew up through it like it was not even there. VIX 17.09 is a line in the sand and price is a 16-handle now so the bulls are happy. VIX is down to 16.19 so watch to see if it prints a 15-handle for more bull joy, or not.

Stay alert for a whipsaw since anything can happen in this choppy pig slop. The price action is a lot like last year. UTIL leaks lower that is ominous going forward but for now the party, and the band, plays on. Million Miles Away.

XLF 53.99, XRT 87.06, and VIX 17.09 tell you the stock market direction. The prescheduled number on Friday was cancelled.

On the last trade that ran for less than 2 weeks, the algo program loses a couple percent and ditto the actual trading. For the year, with one month in the bag already, the benchmark SPX is up a couple percent and the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant are each down a couple percent. Choppy slop to begin the year. Keybot the Quant exited SH and entered QQQ remaining in single ETF's for another week when the move to 2x leveraged ETF's may resume (a timer will expire). The choppy slop chews up bulls and bears alike especially those holding long or short 2x and 3x ETF's. 

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/2/26; 10:19 AM EST = +22; signal line is +15; go long 6974 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +1.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.9%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.7%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.6%)
2/2/26; 10:14 AM EST = +6; signal line is +15
2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -8; signal line is +15
1/30/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
1/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +17
1/30/26; 3:06 AM EST = -8; signal line is +17
1/29/26; 3:57 PM EST = +6; signal line is +19
1/29/26; 9:49 AM EST = -8; signal line is +20
1/29/26; 9:19 AM EST = +8; signal line is +22
1/28/26; 2:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 2:43 PM EST = +6; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 12:57 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23
1/28/26; 10:44 AM EST = +8; signal line is +23
1/27/26; 10:00 AM EST = +22; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 6:58 AM EST = +24; signal line is +25
1/26/26; 4:40 AM EST = +10; signal line is +25
1/25/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +26
1/23/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:59 PM EST = +24; signal line is +27
1/21/26; 3:20 PM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/21/26; 2:49 PM EST = +24; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +28
1/20/26; 9:30 AM EST = +26; signal line is +29; go short 6846 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.0%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.4%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = +0.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market drama continues. The bears are in charge with the algo number 23 points below the signal line but equities remain buoyant. The buy the dip crowd is strong with traders and investors believing that stocks will never go down again.

Utilities, retail stocks, banks and volatility are the 4 key drivers of stock market direction currently. For the bears, the UTIL, or DJU, line in the sand is 1068 with price starting at 1091. Bears are having difficulty making downside progress but if 1068 fails, it is light's out. You will see stocks collapsing faster than a prom dress at midnight.

The bulls remain in the game benefiting from end of year joy, the ongoing AI and chip hype, and the relentless dip-buyers. Bulls need XRT above 87.15, XLF above 54.05 and VIX below 17.00. The retail sector needs to gain only about a percent; ditto the banksters. It would also be nothing for the VIX to drop through 17 so the bulls have it on a silver platter if they want it back.

If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bullish, you can check the VIX in overnight trading and the other two in the pre-market, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play, and if the SPX moves above 6964, that would be about a +25 point gain, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

So the game is set. Bears need UTIL below 1068 and you will see blood and carnage on Wall Street like never before. The bulls simply need a percent gain in retail stocks and banks, and the VIX to drop below 17, and they will likely retake control of the stock market. 

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell. For now, the bears continue to growl and the Clash howls. London Calling.

2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/6/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -8; signal line is +15
1/30/26; 11:02 AM EST = -8; signal line is +16
1/30/26; 10:44 AM EST = +6; signal line is +17
1/30/26; 3:06 AM EST = -8; signal line is +17
1/29/26; 3:57 PM EST = +6; signal line is +19
1/29/26; 9:49 AM EST = -8; signal line is +20
1/29/26; 9:19 AM EST = +8; signal line is +22
1/28/26; 2:54 PM EST = +22; signal line is +23