STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side as the sloppy market action continues. The euphoric orgy on Friday is one for the record books. Interestingly, the buying volume in that party atmosphere could not overcome any of the last three days' selling volume. This activity hints that the smart money is ditching stocks left and right as the dumb money is tripping over each other to buy, buy, buy, like the guy on television says, afraid of missing the next big up move. Time will tell. The algo number is 12 points above the signal line giving the nod to the bulls.

Utilities, banks and volatility are the key stock market drivers lately. The utility lines in the sand are UTIL 1069 and UTIL 1112. Price begins the week at 1089 in the middle. UTIL is below 1112 creating stock market bearishness while it is also above 1069 creating market bullishness. The next month is critical to find out if a bigtime crash is at hand. It is time to sh*t, or get off the pot.

If UTIL slips below 1069, it is setting the stock market up for a major drop if not an all-out crash. If UTIL does not fall below 1069, any pullback in stocks will be run of the mill and nothing to get too worked up about. The 1069 is a warning that blood and carnage is ahead. If UTIL pops above 1112, the bulls have the upper hand going forward and any significant top in the market is likely off the table for several weeks forward even a month or three. The 1107 to 1128 range is key for the next month. Bulls need to get up into this range and they will be fine. Bears need the 1069 to fail. If bears do not pull it off over the next month, they will likely run out of gas and fold like a cheap suit.

XLF 53.99 is the line in the sand with price at 54.26. The banksters created much of the Friday joy. If XLF falls below 53.99, the stock market will noticeably weaken.

VIX 17.10 is the line in the sand with price at a patriotic 17.76. It is extremely odd that VIX did not drop below 17 on Friday with the euphoric rally. The bulls need VIX to drop below 17.10 in overnight trading into the Monday session to prove that they got game. If VIX remains above 17.10, the rally joy will turn into sadness and despair. Bulls must push VIX below 17 or they got nothing.

Bulls need UTIL above 1112 and VIX below 17.10. Either one will show that the bulls got strength and then they will work towards securing the other parameter.

Bears need UTIL below 1069 that will create serious stock market pain and XLF below 53.99. Bears got nothing unless they can beat the banksters down.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Wednesday. The Presidents Day holiday is the following Monday so stocks may be buoyant on Thursday and Friday heading into the 3-day weekend. Hey Andy, are you goofin' on Elvis, are you having fun? Man on the Moon.

2/15/26; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/26; 9:00 AM EST =
2/8/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +12
2/6/26; 12:31 PM EST = +24; signal line is +11; go long 6908 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -3.8%)(Actual results this trade = +1.3%; Actual results for 2026 = -1.5%)