STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 11 points above the signal line that is not an enthusiastic endorsement of the bullish case. Nonetheless, the bulls lead the stock market parade getting boosted by retail stocks and copper in recent days. Bears hang their hats on banks and volatility that are creating stock market negativity.

The quant is calling out the latest bull/bear lines in the sand for these 4 parameters currently controlling market direction; respectively, XRT 87.68, CPER 35.29, XLF 53.47 and VIX 17.50. Nothing else matters. You do not even have to watch the stock indexes; watch these 4 metrics and you will know the direction of the stock market.

Bulls are in charge right now and need XLF above 53.47 and VIX below 17.50 that will catapult the SPX above 7K. Vol is key. It does not matter that the bulls are winning now because if they cannot get the VIX below 17.50, they have buptkis and stocks will selloff again. It is critical that bulls push VIX below 17.50, if not, and if vol starts trending higher, the stock market will drop like a rock.

Bears need either XRT below 87.68 and/or CPER below 35.29. XRT is the top dog controlling market direction (retail stocks) and many retail yearnings are on tap in the days ahead after WMT last week. If XRT falls below 87.68, and if the SPX drops under 6836, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Getting the retail sector to turn negative may come easy, but the SPX would need to drop about 74 points. Copper futures need to drop about -2.4% to help the bears another tall order since everybody and his brother wants to buy the red metal.

Banks are struggling and the VIX may remain elevated due to King Donnie's aggression in the Middle East. Copper may remain bullish since a few percent drop may be difficult to achieve. That leaves the XRT 87.68 line in the sand as the top dog controlling the stock market now. The bulls need VIX below 17.50 for the umpteenth time, otherwise, they will fold like a cheap suit going forward.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning, Mexico's Flag Day, shortly after the opening bell. New York City is going to get pummeled with snow today so that may impact trading tomorrow. For now, it is time to enjoy the Sunday at Itchykoo Park with the Small Faces.

3/1/26; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
2/24/26; 10:00 AM EST =
2/22/26; 7:00 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 1:42 PM EST = +24; signal line is +13
2/20/26; 11:30 AM EST = +8; signal line is +14 but algorithm remains long
2/20/26; 10:00 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 3:08 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 2:36 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 1:47 PM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 1:25 PM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/19/26; 10:12 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14
2/19/26; 9:36 AM EST = +8; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/18/26; 9:59 AM EST = +24; signal line is +14; go long 6880 (Benchmark SPX for 2026 = +0.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2026 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = +0.6%; Actual results for 2026 = -0.6%)