STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long, which is surprising, since the model is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 23 points below the signal line. It is on a silver platter for bears.

There are a lot of moving parts right now that are too involved to explain in a post but perhaps some guidelines will help all of you follow along. The quant wants to flip short asap. After the opening bell tomorrow, watch the initial move of the S&P 500. If the SPX drifts lower by only 1 point and trends lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Sounds easy for the bears, doesn't it? Well, not so fast.

The bears need a gentle steady move lower not a gap-down at the opening bell. If the SPX collapses at the open by 11 points or more, this behavior will likely delay the flip to the short side by about 90 minutes. If bearish, you do not want a -11 point drop or more in SPX at the opening bell and S&P futures on Sunday evening on the East Coast are down ..... wait for it ..... wait for it .... -10 points. The bears may ruin it for themselves.

Let's call Monday a battle of utes and retail (both creating bearishness) against banks and the NYA index (both creating bullishness). Here is another twist possible for tomorrow morning. If XLF drops below 34.43 (only pennies away), or if NYA drops below 15206, either would do, the quant will likely immediately flip short regardless of other factors. This may also occur if VIX spikes above 24.80.

The bulls need to keep the banks and NYA in their camp and at the same time pull UTIL above 975.20 and/or RTH above 165.50. Either one will stop the stock market selling in its tracks. If both flip bullish, stocks are going to run strongly higher.

Is all that clear as mud? And that is a simplified version of what is happening. The stock market is erratic and unstable ahead of the inflation report on Tuesday morning and King Powell's rate decision and press conference Wednesday afternoon. Keybot does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week.

Bears are ready to flip the model short but do not want a gap-down tomorrow morning. Bears will benefit greatly if banks are weak and or if the NYA index is weak. Bulls need to maintain banks and the NYA heading higher while pulling the utes and retail stocks higher.

12/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/11/22; 7:00 PM EST = +9; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 3:29 PM EST = +9; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 3:01 PM EST = +25; signal line is +33 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 2:38 PM EST = +41; signal line is +32
12/9/22; 2:10 PM EST = +25; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
12/9/22; 10:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +32
12/8/22; 3:18 PM EST = +41; signal line is +31
12/8/22; 3:11 PM EST = +25; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
12/8/22; 12:06 PM EST = +41; signal line is +29
12/8/22; 11:21 AM EST = +25; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
12/8/22; 10:29 AM EST = +41; signal line is +27
12/7/22; 2:51 PM EST = +25; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains long
12/7/22; 2:39 PM EST = +41; signal line is +26
12/7/22; 2:01 PM EST = +25; signal line is +25 but algorithm remains long
12/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +25
12/6/22; 2:35 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/6/22; 2:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bulls are hanging on by a fingernail with the algo number only 1 measly point above the signal line. Utilities fail into the bear camp but the model does not flip short yet.

The SPX 4091-4095 level (write this on a post-it note and stick it on your forehead) is extremely important and will open the door to a new cyclical bull market pattern but price is rejected and spanked lower to 3999.

Utes and commodes are the 2 parameters dictating stock market direction right now, in real-time. Both are bearish creating market weakness. Watch utilities closely today. UTIL 975.20 is the key bull/bear line in the sand. UTIL begins the Tuesday session at 970.23 in the bear camp. If UTIL jogs above and below 975 a time or few today, and resolves lower, consider that an indication that the quant wants to flip short and the imminent turn to the short side would be in play.

If UTIL regains 975 and is heading higher, the bulls are back in business. Likewise, if GTX regains 3590, the bulls can celebrate with the upside in stocks extending higher.

It is somewhat of a standoff between bulls and bears right now, a big intraday recovery day Friday, then a collapse yesterday. Watch UTIL 975 today to see if there is any price activity. 

12/11/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The commodities, SPX index and utilities are dictating the stock market direction. Bulls need GTX above 3606 and/or SPX above 4097 to receive more upside bull fuel. GTX is about a +3% gain needed but for the SPX, price begins at 4072 only 25 points away from 4097.

SPX 4097 is far more important than a simple bull/bear line in the sand. It dictates whether the US stock market remains in a cyclical bear or if it now transitions into a cyclical bull with lots of upside ahead. SPX moving above 4097 and 4100, and remaining above, opens the door to big numbers higher.

The bears need to pull UTIL lower below 974.50 and price is only about a point away. UTIL below 974.50 will create stock market sogginess but it is probably not enough to get the model to flip short. Nonetheless, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play if UTIL loses 974.50.

If UTIL loses 974.50, and then after a while moves back above, then back below again (jogging), the robot is likely getting ready to flip short. This type of action would walk the model to the bear side.

It's that simple; utes versus SPX. If UTIL loses 974.50, stocks will sell off but not fall apart, but if UTIL keeps jogging above and below 974.50, and resolves below, the stock market is likely going to drop and Keybot flip short.

If SPX moves above 4097, it is off to the races for the stock market. One of these two parameters will flinch and tell the market direction forward. The market action is noise until then. UTIL 974.50 and SPX 4097 is all that matter.

S&P futures are down -5 points Sunday evening on the US East Coast. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

12/11/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/9/22; 10:00 AM EST =
12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 3:39 PM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 1:36 PM EST = +41; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 9:36 AM EST = +25; signal line is +24
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +24
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +41; signal line is +23

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long after the Jerome Powell show yesterday. The Fed is reducing the pace of rate increases (that choke-off the economy for the sake of reducing inflation) so the bulls are buying stocks. Did you see the utilities?

UTIL moves above 974. This is a big f&*$#n' deal, as Sleepy Joe Biden told Emperor Obama years ago. If UTIL ventures above 1000, that will also be a big deal and lead the way to far higher stock prices. If UTIL fails from here, however, there will be Hell to pay in the US stock market and an epic multi-month crash will likely begin.

Today's battle for stock market directional control is utes versus commodes. Bulls need UTIL to remain above 974 and for GTX to regain 3600 moving higher. This will create another new leg higher for US stocks.

Bears need GTX to remain bearish below 3600 and at the same time pull UTIL back below 974 to create negativity. This will probably not be enough to flip the model short but super close. If UTIL fails, study its behavior. If UTIL loses 974 for a few minutes or hour or so, then regains it and that goes on for a while, but then price loses 974 again (jogging), that tells you the quant is likely getting ready to go short.

SPX begins at 4080. SPX 4155 is a major bull/bear line in the sand perhaps the most important number in the stock market. If the S&P 500 regains 4155, which is 75 points away, the United States stock market will rally bigtime traveling to the moon going forward.

On the other side of the ledger, UTIL 974 will lead to darkness and long-term gloom, despair, agony and  misery.

12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +41; signal line is +23
11/30/22; 3:14 PM EST = +41; signal line is +22
11/29/22; 10:00 AM EST = +25; signal line is +22
11/29/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +22
11/28/22; 3:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. It looked like copper would fail and help flip the model short but it took all morning for the red metal to crawl into the bear camp and then that was only for a short while. Then, during the final hour of trading, copper fails again, and the quant wants to flip  short, but the internal parameters will not permit the move yet.

The bears need a steady move lower in stocks and for the SPX to fall through 3956 trending lower and that should be enough to flip Keybot the Quant to the short side but time will tell. S&P futures are up +4 an hour before the regular US trading session begins. Copper futures are up nearly +1% so the bulls want to maintain control of the stock market.

Bears need SPX below 3956 for victory and to flip Keybot short and the NYA dropping below 15217 would flush the stock market even lower.

Bulls need CPER above 21.73 and/or UTIL above 974.29 to maintain the upside in stocks and CPER will likely turn bullish after the opening bell. UTIL 974 would kick in a stronger upside rally in stocks.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning.

12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/28/22; 3:00 PM EST = +10; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/28/22; 11:56 AM EST = +26; signal line is +24
11/28/22; 10:56 AM EST = +10; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long by a whisker with the algo number only 1 measly point above the signal line. All that matters is utes and copper. Bulls must push UTIL above 974.35 (now at 972.06), otherwise, they are going to get into trouble.

Bears need CPER below 21.72 (now at 21.81) to create stock market negativity. If copper turns bearish, and the SPX drops below 4021 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

On Sunday evening on the US East Coast, S&P futures are down -16 and copper futures are dropping faster than a prom dress so the bears are broadcasting that they want to take control of the stock market. The bulls must push utilities higher to stop the negativity.

Keybot prints 3 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning, another on Wednesday evening for the EOM (end-of-month), and the third on Friday morning. It is a battle royale between utilities and copper  on Monday. Who will win?

12/4/22; 7:00 PM EST =
12/2/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
11/29/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long by a single hair. Here it is. Time to separate the men from the boys. The UTIL bull/bear line in the sand, as previously mentioned, is 974 and an hour ago price prints......... wait for it ......... wait for it ........ wait a bit longer for it....... 974. It is a battle royale with the stock market on the line.

Keybot has not printed any numbers as yet today but UTIL is knocking on the bull's door. The bulls need the stronger utes because the algo number is only above the signal line by 1 measly point. Bulls need stronger utilities to drive the US stock market another leg higher.

If UTIL closes above 974 that is a bigtime bull signal. It will have to keep following through next week but it tells you the bulls are going to run higher.

UTIL tagged 974 and is at 971 now so a close below 974 extends the game until Monday giving the market bears something to smile about because utes came all the way up over the last few weeks and right when it counted, were unable to hold 974. So watch it to see what happens.

If utes head lower from here in a big way clearly rejected by 974, then Katy bar the door. As the previous post said, the US stock market will be in a crash profile for a significant collapse to begin at anytime.

If bullish on stocks you need UTIL above 974. If bearish, you are hoping that utes collapse. Bears need weaker copper and must push CPER below 21.73 but it is drifting higher.

The US market closes at 1:00 PM EST today only 90 minutes away.

If CPER loses 21.73, consider the imminent turn to the downside to be in play, and if the SPX then loses the 4K level, Keybot will likely flip short. It's a coin-flip but UTIL 974 and CPER 21.73 tell you the answer and the direction forward for stocks.

11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/22/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +25
11/21/22; 12:35 PM EST = +10; signal line is +24 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 10:20 AM EST = -4; signal line is +23 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:53 AM EST = +10; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:42 AM EST = -4; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/21/22; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = +26; signal line is +20
11/18/22; 3:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +18

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with the robot teasing to go short but content to stay long into the holiday-shortened trading week ahead. The bulls are in control with the algo number 8 points above the signal line but that is nothing to brag about.

The battle next week is between copper, volatility and NYA in the bull camp versus utes and commodes in the bear camp.

To continue the rally, bulls need UTIL above 974 and/or GTX above 3630 although both will take some effort. If the bulls push stocks higher in front of the joyous Turkey Day, watch SPX 4145-4150 since that would unleash big upside.

If UTIL does not get back above 974, prepare your portfolio for a major crash event that can begin at anytime and will likely be written into the record books. UTIL above 974 would keep the wolf at bay.

Bears need to pull CPER below 21.69, NYA below 15263 and/or push VIX above 25.30. Any 1 of the 3 will signal an end to the bull rally. If 2 or all 3 turn bearish, Katy bar the door, since stocks will be collapsing lower. The copper target corresponds to a -1.2% loss in copper futures so watch this closely overnight Sunday into Monday.

If any 1 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back on the table and if the SPX loses 3936 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The NYA below 15263 is a big deal which will lead to significant further stock market weakness. Conversely, if NYA remains above 15263, the bulls are on easy street with stocks floating higher until the NYA changes its mind again.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number next week on Wednesday morning. The US stock market is closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving Day. Friday is a shortened session.

11/27/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/23/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/18/22; 3:06 PM EST = +26; signal line is +18
11/18/22; 12:13 PM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
11/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +16
11/17/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 4 points below the signal line. The internals will not yet fully latch to permit the move so the quant remains long.

The fight for stock market direction is currently rooted in the NYA index at the 15260 bull/bear line in the sand. NYA is at 15150 creating sogginess in stocks. Commodities also remain in play with GTX 3631. Price is at 3552 creating stock market selling pressure.

VIX is at 24.13 with the bull/bear line in the sand at 25.33 so the bears must move VIX up a full stick if they want to prove that down is the direction forward (volatility moves inversely to stocks).

Bulls need NYA 15260 to prove that they can flex their muscles higher while bears want VIX above 25.33 which will usher in stock market pain. Choose your poison.

If the SPX drops below 3906, now at 3936, and trends lower from there, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If this is not in the cards today, NYA 15260 and VIX 25.33 will tell you the path forward.

11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
11/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +40; signal line is +16
11/16/22; 2:25 PM EST = +40; signal line is +14
11/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +13
11/15/22; 2:18 PM EST = +40; signal line is +12
11/15/22; 1:30 PM EST = +26; signal line is +11
11/15/22; 11:28 AM EST = +40; signal line is +9
11/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is +7
11/14/22; 3:59 PM EST = +12; signal line is +5
11/14/22; 2:11 PM EST = +26; signal line is +4
11/14/22; 1:12 PM EST = +40; signal line is +2
11/14/22; 12:57 PM EST = +26; signal line is -1
11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is -2

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 42 points above the signal line. The bulls are cruising and a new development occurs that is a bigtime bull win.

The NYA crosses above 15297 shaking off the bear market and trying to enter a bull market. Watch the bull/bear line in the sand at 15297 like a hawk; it will tell you stock market direction. Above means an extended bull market and several weeks of upside joy. If NYA drops below 15297, there will be Hell to pay going forward.

Same dealio with GTX 3638 with price at 3683 creating bullish joy. Negativity will occur in the stock market when GTX loses 3638. Bulls rule above GTX 3638.

UTIL needs to move above 973 to create bullishness in stocks. This may be a tall order but it requires a hairy eyeball. Overall, the utilities are a terrible omen suggesting a big crash is on tap any week forward directly conflicting with the NYA joy.

SPX needs to move above 4150 which is 157 points away to help the bulls. If this occurs, trumpets would sound the arrival of a strong bull market.

11/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = +40; signal line is -2
11/11/22; 1:08 PM EST = +40; signal line is -5
11/11/22; 11:15 AM EST = +26; signal line is -7
11/11/22; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is -8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains on the long side with more juice added to the bull tank today. The algo number is 48 points above the signal line so the bulls are cruising. Commodities turn bullish adding upside to the stock market. GTX 3633 is the bull/bear line in the sand with price trading at 3704 right now so watch it closely.

Most importantly, the NYA crosses above the critical bull/bear line in the sand at 15297 now trading at 15340. This is a big deal. Watch NYA 15297 like a hawk because if price remains above, stocks will remain in rally mode. If NYA loses 15297 today or any day forward, that is a sign that the rally is not strong and will likely roll over.

11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/11/22; 10:17 AM EST = +40; signal line is -8
11/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = +26; signal line is -11
11/11/22; 9:36 AM EST = +26; signal line is -13
11/10/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is -15; go long 3876; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -18.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.8%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2022 = +40.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side at SPX 3876. The US stock market is in frenzy after the inflation number comes in soft this morning. It is a bull orgy with the major indexes up from +2% to +5% or more. Shorts are running for their lives, covering, adding more bull fuel.

Volatility, retail stocks and chips all euphorically jump into the bull camp cheering the orgy. The S&P futures popped over 100 handles instantaneously on the release of the inflation data; that has never happened before. Strange Days, as Jim would sing.

The bulls are running the show with the algo 27 points above the signal line. Watch commodities. Bulls need GTX above 3633 now at 3631 to create more upside in stocks. Bears must stop GTX at 3633 and spank it back down.

On the last trade, another whipsaw that only lasted 5-1/2 hours, the algo program and actual trading each lose about -2%. On the year, the SPX benchmark is down -19%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +28%  and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +40%. Keybot exits SH and enters QQQ.

11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/11/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/10/22; 9:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is -15; go long 3876; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -18.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.8%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2022 = +40.0%)
11/10/22; 8:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -16
11/9/22; 1:10 PM EST = -34; signal line is -16
11/9/22; 12:25 PM EST = -20; signal line is -15
11/9/22; 11:13 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
11/9/22; 11:06 AM EST = -18; signal line is -17
11/9/22; 11:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -17
11/9/22; 10:39 AM EST = -20; signal line is -16; go short 3794; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -20.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +30.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +42.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side this morning at SPX 3794. The bulls were looking good until the wheels fell off this morning. The bears are in control with the algo number 18 points below the signal line.

Volatility, chips and commodities are running the show right now. Banks and copper are supporting the bulls. The bulls need VIX below 25.60, SOX above 2455 and/or GTX above 3633. If the 3 remain in the bear camp, stocks will continue sinking lower. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will immediately stop the selling.

On the last trade that only ran for about 8-1/2 hours, a whipsaw, the algo program and actual trading have marginal losses. On the year, the SPX benchmark is down over -20%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +30% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +42%. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x ETF's. The choppy slop continues and the quant will remain in 1x ETF's into the first week of December. The stock market is chop suey chopping up bulls and bears.

Watch VIX 25.60 for stock market direction.

11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/11/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/9/22; 1:10 PM EST = -34; signal line is -16
11/9/22; 12:25 PM EST = -20; signal line is -15
11/9/22; 11:13 AM EST = -4; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
11/9/22; 11:06 AM EST = -18; signal line is -17
11/9/22; 11:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -17
11/9/22; 10:39 AM EST = -20; signal line is -16; go short 3794; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -20.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +30.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +42.2%)
11/8/22; 10:46 AM EST = +10; signal line is -16
11/8/22; 10:46 AM EST = +26; signal line is -17
11/8/22; 9:36 AM EST = +10; signal line is -19
11/7/22; 3:56 PM EST = -6; signal line is -21
11/7/22; 3:29 PM EST = +10; signal line is -21
11/7/22; 3:16 PM EST = -6; signal line is -23; go long 3809; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -20.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +30.4%)(Actual results this trade = +0.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +42.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3809. The quant spent more time wanting to go long during the last trade than remaining short. It is testimony to the sideways chop. Chop suey. The algo number is 15 points above the signal line.

The bulls create the upside joy in stocks with banks, volatility, copper and commodities. Bulls need the chips and retail stocks to join the rally if it is to have legs higher.

Bulls need to push SOX above 2454.25 to unleash another leg higher for equities. Bulls need to push RTH above 160.67 to create another leg higher for stocks. Both parameters are knocking at the bulls door so pay attention to see if either turn bullish, or, if they remain bearish. If SOX and RTH fail to turn bullish, the stock market will likely be out of gas and become soggy again.

Bears need to keep chips and retail stocks gloomy and at the same time push volatility higher and copper and commodities lower. You will know that the bears are starting to damage the stock market again if VIX pops above 25.57 and begins trending higher. VIX is at 24.65 in real-time in the bull camp.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading each gain about a percent. For the year thus far, the S&P 500 benchmark is down -20%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +30% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +43% outperforming the benchmark US stock market by 73 percentage points. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY remaining in the 1x ETF's. The robot is smart and saw the choppy slop coming ahead of time.

Watch volatility, copper, chips and retail stocks.

11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/11/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/7/22; 3:56 PM EST = -6; signal line is -21
11/7/22; 3:29 PM EST = +10; signal line is -21
11/7/22; 3:16 PM EST = -6; signal line is -23; go long 3809; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -20.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +30.4%)(Actual results this trade = +0.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +42.6%)
11/6/22; 7:00 PM EST = -6; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
11/4/22; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/4/22; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/3/22; 12:06 PM EST = -22; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/3/22; 3:06 AM EST = -36; signal line is -24
11/2/22; 3:56 PM EST = -22; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 3:31 PM EST = -36; signal line is -25
11/2/22; 3:18 PM EST = -22; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 2:48 PM EST = -36; signal line is -24
11/2/22; 2:28 PM EST = -20; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 1:40 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 1:15 PM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 4:53 AM EST = -36; signal line is -25
11/1/22; 3:57 PM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 3:31 PM EST = -36; signal line is -25
11/1/22; 3:22 PM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 3:19 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 3:07 PM EST = -20; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 2:32 PM EST = -36; signal line is -25
11/1/22; 2:26 PM EST = -20; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 2:00 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 1:51 PM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 1:30 PM EST = -36; signal line is -26
11/1/22; 1:16 PM EST = -22; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 1:12 PM EST = -36; signal line is -26
11/1/22; 12:44 PM EST = -20; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 12:18 PM EST = -36; signal line is -28
11/1/22; 12:01 PM EST = -20; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 10:47 AM EST = -36; signal line is -30; go short 3854; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +29.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual results for 2022 = +41.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side despite the big rally on Friday. The algo number is 17 points above the signal line so Keybot is champing at the bit to go long. The quant has wanted to go long since Thursday but the internal parameters will not latch completely to permit the move.

On Friday morning, all the bulls had to do was send markets slowly higher but instead it was a gap-up euphoric open triggering the gap-up timer so the flip long is delayed by approximately 90 minutes. Once the gap-up timer expired, the SPX could not regain the day's high.

So short remains the direction and S&P futures are down 25 points on Sunday evening in the States. Traders were joyous last week expecting China to roll back the failed zero-covid strategy but instead, as any dictator would do, dirtbag Xi says no change creating sogginess in stocks to begin the new week.

If the SPX moves above 3796 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. The bulls do not want another gap-up open because that may delay the flip long. Thus, the SPX will need about 25 points of upside to flip long but futures are down 25 points right now in real-time.

There are a bunch of moving parts but let's find something simple that all of you can follow. Copper and commodities exploded higher last week expecting a China reopening so they should retrace. Banks have outperformed and remain bullish. Volatility dropped on Friday sending stocks higher. These are the four key parameters that created the bull rally.

Banks are elevated and even with a pullback they may want to remain in the bull camp. The VIX bull/bear line in the sand is 25.71 and the week ended at 24.55 in the bull camp (the VIX and SPX  move inverse to each other well over 90% of the time). Volatility is a prime candidate to turn bearish that will create negativity in stocks (VIX will pop above 25.71).

If the VIX pops above 25.71, which it should overnight, watch to see if copper and/or commodities turn bearish. If so, short is the correct path forward. The bears need CPER to drop below 21.18 and/or GTX below 3633 to prove that down for stocks is correct. If the VIX pops higher but copper and commodities are not falling that much, this will hint that the bulls are setting things up for a rally (and the VIX will likely drop; stocks will rally if VIX remains below 25.71).

Copper futures need to drop -5.4% to help the bears and they are down -2.1% now so the bears have some work to do. Commodities need to drop -3.7% to help the bears maintain the downward path.

Humorously, the SPX is where it was at 6 weeks ago. It is chop suey chewing up bulls and bears alike. Is the pressure gonna drop on you? as Toots and the Maytals would sing.

11/13/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/11/22; 10:00 AM EST =
11/6/22; 7:00 PM EST = -6; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
11/4/22; 9:36 AM EST = -6; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/4/22; 9:00 AM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/3/22; 12:06 PM EST = -22; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/3/22; 3:06 AM EST = -36; signal line is -24
11/2/22; 3:56 PM EST = -22; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 3:31 PM EST = -36; signal line is -25
11/2/22; 3:18 PM EST = -22; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 2:48 PM EST = -36; signal line is -24
11/2/22; 2:28 PM EST = -20; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 1:40 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 1:15 PM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/2/22; 4:53 AM EST = -36; signal line is -25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 3854 yesterday before munch time. The banks and commodities are supporting the bulls while copper and volatility support the bears.

The quant goes psycho over the last day printing a wild barrage of 19 numbers including the flip to the bear camp. It represents lots of chop and indecision going into the Fed rate decision and Chairman Powell's press conference today.

Bears need weaker banks and commodities to send stocks lower. Bears need GTX below 3616.50 and XLF below 32.70.

Bulls need stronger copper and lower volatility. Bulls need CPER above 20.95 and VIX below 25.73. Simply watch these three parameters (GTX, CPER, VIX) and they will tell you the direction of the stock market. As always a wild whipsaw may occur in these crazy markets when Powell begins to speak.

On the last trade that ran for 11 days, the quant program and actual trading both gain about +3%. For the year thus far, into its 11th month, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -19.1% no longer in that sub -20% silly bear market region (we remain in a cyclical bear market). The Keybot the Quant computer program is up +29% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +42% this year outperforming the benchmark by a huge 61 percentage points. That's a lot. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x ETF's since the whipsaw timer remains in effect.

The bears are in control with the algo number 11 points below the signal line. GTX 3616.50,  CPER 20.95 and VIX 25.73 tell the story going forward. As copper goes, so goes the market.

11/6/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/4/22; 9:00 AM EST =
11/2/22; 4:53 AM EST = -36; signal line is -25
11/1/22; 3:57 PM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 3:31 PM EST = -36; signal line is -25
11/1/22; 3:22 PM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 3:19 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 3:07 PM EST = -20; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 2:32 PM EST = -36; signal line is -25
11/1/22; 2:26 PM EST = -20; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 2:00 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 1:51 PM EST = -22; signal line is -25 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 1:30 PM EST = -36; signal line is -26
11/1/22; 1:16 PM EST = -22; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 1:12 PM EST = -36; signal line is -26
11/1/22; 12:44 PM EST = -20; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 12:18 PM EST = -36; signal line is -28
11/1/22; 12:01 PM EST = -20; signal line is -29 but algorithm remains short
11/1/22; 10:47 AM EST = -36; signal line is -30; go short 3854; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +29.2%)(Actual results this trade = +2.6%; Actual results for 2022 = +41.8%)
11/1/22; 9:51 AM EST = -20; signal line is -31
11/1/22; 9:38 AM EST = -4; signal line is -32
11/1/22; 9:36 AM EST = -20; signal line is -34
10/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -34; signal line is -36
10/31/22; 11:03 AM EST = -34; signal line is -36
10/31/22; 9:57 AM EST = -34; signal line is -37
10/31/22; 3:06 AM EST = -34; signal line is -38
10/30/22; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -39
10/28/22; 3:34 PM EST = -20; signal line is -40
10/28/22; 2:53 PM EST = -34; signal line is -42
10/28/22; 2:32 PM EST = -20; signal line is -43
10/28/22; 1:44 PM EST = -34; signal line is -44
10/28/22; 1:37 PM EST = -20; signal line is -45
10/28/22; 10:14 AM EST = -34; signal line is -46
10/28/22; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -47
10/28/22; 9:59 AM EST = -20; signal line is -48
10/28/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -49
10/26/22; 10:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -50
10/26/22; 9:39 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
10/25/22; 10:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -53
10/24/22; 11:31 AM EST = -32; signal line is -54
10/24/22; 9:59 AM EST = -48; signal line is -55
10/24/22; 9:44 AM EST = -32; signal line is -55
10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST = -48; signal line is -56
10/21/22; 3:05 PM EST = -48; signal line is -57
10/21/22; 2:22 PM EST = -64; signal line is -57 but algorithm remains long
10/21/22; 2:09 PM EST = -48; signal line is -56; go long 3742; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -21.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -4.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +39.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but the algo number is only 2 points above the signal line. The quant is very active on Friday into today.  The main battle for stock market direction is the commodities versus the retail stocks. Very simply, the bulls need GTX above 3615.80 and the bears need RTH below 161.40. Who will  win?

GTX was in the bull camp this morning and just stumbled into the bear camp so watch it closely. You can watch $GTX on stockcharts.com. If GTX turns bullish again that will hint at more upside in stocks ahead. The stock market will start falling apart if retail stocks turn bearish.

Bulls would also benefit if VIX drops below 25.80. It would be off to the races for stocks. If VIX remains above 25.80, it tells you that stocks are going to remain weak and the rally will fizzle. Stocks typically rally into the Fed decision on Wednesday.

For now, the caution flag remains out. If RTH loses 161.40, consider the imminent turn to the bear side to be on the table.

11/6/22; 7:00 PM EST =
11/4/22; 9:00 AM EST =
10/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/31/22; 11:03 AM EST = -34; signal line is -36
10/31/22; 9:57 AM EST = -34; signal line is -37
10/31/22; 3:06 AM EST = -34; signal line is -38
10/30/22; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -39
10/28/22; 3:34 PM EST = -20; signal line is -40
10/28/22; 2:53 PM EST = -34; signal line is -42
10/28/22; 2:32 PM EST = -20; signal line is -43
10/28/22; 1:44 PM EST = -34; signal line is -44
10/28/22; 1:37 PM EST = -20; signal line is -45
10/28/22; 10:14 AM EST = -34; signal line is -46
10/28/22; 10:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is -47
10/28/22; 9:59 AM EST = -20; signal line is -48
10/28/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -49
10/26/22; 10:43 AM EST = -4; signal line is -50
10/26/22; 9:39 AM EST = -18; signal line is -52
10/25/22; 10:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -53
10/24/22; 11:31 AM EST = -32; signal line is -54

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls could not get copper to cooperate so they jump on the retail horse and ride that to the Vault of Heaven. The quant is now tracking banks, retail stocks and copper as the three drivers of stock market direction currently.

Watch XLF 32.03, RTH 160.70 and CPER 21.00. Banks took off higher today pumping the stock market higher along with retail stocks. Bulls need XLF and RTH to remain in their camp and must pull copper to the bull side to create more oomph in stocks. VIX below 26.07 will also help bulls.

Bears need to keep copper and volatility in their camp and pull either XLF or RTH to the bear side. Either one would stop the stock market rally.

Bears need to stab banks and retail stocks to create negativity. Bulls must exalt copper and crush volatility if they want to send stocks strongly higher.

The bulls rule the roost with the algo number 22 points above the signal line trying to pull up and away. The caution flag remains out since the stock market remains erratic and unstable.

10/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/24/22; 11:31 AM EST = -32; signal line is -54
10/24/22; 9:59 AM EST = -48; signal line is -55
10/24/22; 9:44 AM EST = -32; signal line is -55
10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST = -48; signal line is -56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side on Friday afternoon at SPX 3742. It is interesting that it was at 2 PM EST-ish the same time as the flip to the short side the day before. The stock market remans a coin toss reacting to Fed  comments.

Banks and copper matter as mentioned in the prior post, and the Friday action was at XLF 32.03 (now at 32.19) and CPER 21.00 (now at 20.98). The banks crept higher on Friday then whammo, once the financials jumped into the bull camp, it was up, up and away with the stock market. Copper, however, could not make it up the bull hill with CPER stalling only 2 pennies from complete bull victory.

Thus, as copper goes, so goes the stock market. Copper futures are trading...... drum roll please ...... flatter than a newlywed's soufflé, so the red metal is not tipping its hand as yet.

Bulls must maintain the strength in banks so watch XLF in the pre-market. GS, BAC, JPM, C, WFC, etc..., will tell you what the banks are doing.

The algo number is  only 8 points above the signal line so the bulls are not safe by any means. A whipsaw occurs on Friday so another may occur Monday. Bulls must keep XLF above 32.03 and push CPER above 21.00 and it will be smooth sailing for the relief rally.

Bears must keep copper futures negative overnight and push XLF below 32.03 on Monday to create negativity and  send the stock market lower again.

On the last trade that lasted a big 6-1/2 hours, the quant's program lost a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant lost -4.4%. Ouchie. That was one heck of a reversal a rare event. The SPX benchmark  is down -22% this year and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is up +39% for a 61 percentage point outperformance. Keybot exited SDS and entered SPY dropping down into the single 1x ETF's for at least the next 30 days to reduce risk. The whipsaw triggers the robot to draw from the 1x ETF que since there may be a very choppy period ahead for 1 to 4 weeks. Choppy markets are chop suey chewing up and spitting out 2x ETF positions long or short.

Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The month ends the following Monday, 10/31/22, on Halloween. A kid at the Halloween party provided for disadvantaged youngsters told Keystone to take his mask off but he wasn't wearing one.

10/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
10/30/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/28/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/25/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST = -48; signal line is -56
10/21/22; 3:05 PM EST = -48; signal line is -57
10/21/22; 2:22 PM EST = -64; signal line is -57 but algorithm remains long
10/21/22; 2:09 PM EST = -48; signal line is -56; go long 3742; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -21.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +26.2%)(Actual results this trade = -4.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +39.2%)
10/20/22; 2:12 PM EST = -64; signal line is -56; go short 3661; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -23.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +28.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +43.6%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday afternoon at SPX 3661. Banks gave up the ghost so stocks go south. Bulls need XLF above 32.00 and CPER above 21.00 to reconstruct a rally. Today we see what the bears got.

On the last trade, that ran for only one week, the algo program gains a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +2%. For the year thus far, now into Q4, the benchmark SPX is down -23%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +28% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a huge 44% this year outperforming the benchmark by 67 percentage points and likely outperforming all hedge funds on Wall Street or otherwise, or any funds for that matter. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's.

10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/20/22; 2:12 PM EST = -64; signal line is -56; go short 3661; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -23.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +28.4%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +43.6%)
10/19/22; 11:39 AM EST = -64; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains long
10/19/22; 11:17 AM EST = -48; signal line is -54
10/19/22; 10:46 AM EST = -64; signal line is -54 but algorithm remains long
10/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -54
10/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is -55
10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST = -64; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains long
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST = -64; signal line is -54 but algorithm remains long
10/14/22; 9:48 AM EST = -64; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains long
10/13/22; 11:20 AM EST = -50; signal line is -52; go long 3620; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -23.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +9.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.3%)(Actual results this trade = +20.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +41.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with financials joining the bull party. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 7 points above the signal line.

Financials and retail stocks battle it out to dictate the path ahead for the stock market. Bulls must keep XLF above 32.07 and pull RTH above 160.72. Stocks will take another big leg higher if RTH tags 160.72.

Bears must keep RTH in the bear camp and pull XLF below 32.07 to create negativity. The caution flag remains out for now but it will disappear if RTH turns bullish.

10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/22; 9:00 AM EST =
10/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -48; signal line is -55
10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST = -64; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long heading into the new week of trading. The algo number is 9 points below the signal line wanting the quant to flip back to the short side.

If the SPX fall below 3580, starting the week at 3583, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Only 3 points of downside sounds easy enough for the bears to quickly take back stock market control but S&P futures are trading higher up +11 Sunday evening in the States.

Bulls need to bring game to begin the new week. Bulls need stronger commodities, copper and banks to prove they are deserving of a stock market rally. Bulls need GTX above 3627, CPER above 21.10 and  XLF above 32.07, respectively. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish would be good enough to keep a rally going. Copper and banks need to rally about 3% to meet  the bull goal. Commodities remain key and GTX needs to rally only about +1% to keep the bulls in business.

The bulls will be in big trouble if S&P futures turn negative. The bears will be in trouble if GTX, CPER or XLF turns bullish. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Wednesday morning.

10/23/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/19/22; 9:00 AM EST =
10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST = -64; signal line is -55 but algorithm remains long
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST = -64; signal line is -54 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long on Thursday just before munch time at SPX 3620. Commodities  win the day but thwack, today is a different story with commodities slapped lower. The quant wants to whipsaw back into the bear camp with the algo number 10 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch.

Commodities and copper are dictating US stock market direction currently. Also banks.

On the last trade, that ran for a month, the quant program gains +9% and the actual trading gains +20%. That is big time. Keybot the Quant was in SDS during the downfall, but is out of it now, and jumps into SSO the 2x long ETF. The SPX benchmark index is down -24% this year remaining in a bear market. The quant program is up +27% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up an astounding +42%. Keybot is outperforming the S&P 500 benchmark by 66 percentage points and smoking any hedge fund on Wall Street.

10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST = -64; signal line is -54 but algorithm remains long
10/14/22; 9:48 AM EST = -64; signal line is -53 but algorithm remains long
10/13/22; 11:20 AM EST = -50; signal line is -52; go long 3620; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -23.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +9.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +27.3%)(Actual results this trade = +20.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +41.6%)
10/11/22; 2:35 PM EST = -64; signal line is -52
10/11/22; 1:30 PM EST = -50; signal line is -52 but algorithm remains short
10/11/22; 9:56 AM EST = -64; signal line is -51
10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST = -50; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
10/6/22; 10:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -49
10/6/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -48
10/5/22; 2:57 PM EST = -48; signal line is -47
10/5/22; 1:30 PM EST = -64; signal line is -45
10/5/22; 12:42 PM EST = -50; signal line is -42
10/5/22; 12:15 PM EST = -64; signal line is -40
10/5/22; 11:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -38
10/3/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -37
10/2/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -48; signal line is -35
9/30/22; 10:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -34
9/27/22; 10:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -33
9/26/22; 9:38 AM EST = -50; signal line is -33
9/26/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -33
9/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -32
9/23/22; 3:49 PM EST = -50; signal line is -32
9/23/22; 11:37 AM EST = -66; signal line is -31
9/23/22; 11:22 AM EST = -50; signal line is -30
9/23/22; 10:47 AM EST = -66; signal line is -29
9/23/22; 9:37 AM EST = -50; signal line is -27
9/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26
9/19/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26
9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -25
9/16/22; 10:00 AM EST = -50; signal line is -25
9/15/22; 2:54 PM EST = -50; signal line is -24
9/15/22; 2:37 PM EST = -34; signal line is -23
9/15/22; 2:07 PM EST = -50; signal line is -23
9/13/22; 1:49 PM EST = -34; signal line is -22
9/13/22; 1:33 PM EST = -20; signal line is -22 but algorithm remains short
9/13/22; 10:56 AM EST = -34; signal line is -21; go short 3987; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +18.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +21.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bears pound away at the bulls. However, the quant is champing at the bit to go long. The algo number is 1 point above the signal line but other internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

Remember the many posts about the utilities and the wrath they would bring? The utilities paint a dire picture for the United States stock market going forward on a long-term basis. The utes indicate that the bear market plans to stay around for a while. UTIL crashes down to 863 and needs to move above 974 to provide any help to bulls in creating a recovery in stocks. That is a tall order.

The quant is currently tracking commodities, copper, retail stocks, banks and volatility. There are a lot of moving parts. Bulls are trying to stabilize the stock market with commodities. GTX needs to remain above 3634 (now at 3721) to provide hope for bulls. If GTX fails at 3634, the stock market will take another leg lower.

If GTX remains in the bull camp, CPER, RTH and/or XLF need to rally about +4% each to help the bull cause. VIX needs to drop below 25.45 to signal the all-clear for bulls but it is trading above 32 right now. Copper futures are up +1.4%. This tells you that the bulls know what they need to do so they are trying to mount a comeback starting with pumping commodities and copper higher.

The quant wants to go long at the opening bell this morning to begin the new week of trading but there is a fly in the stock market soup. The SPX needs to rally above 3707 for Keybot the Quant to flip long that is a 67-point rally that would be needed today. Will it occur? S&P futures are down -12 as this is typed about 2-1/2 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street so the bulls obviously have some work to to do.

Perhaps some sideways choppiness is in order as commodities, copper, retail and the banks battle one another to see who will rule the roost and take stocks in that direction. Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning.

10/16/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/14/22; 10:00 AM EST =
10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -51 but algorithm remains short
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST = -50; signal line is -50 but algorithm remains short
10/6/22; 10:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -49
10/6/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -48
10/5/22; 2:57 PM EST = -48; signal line is -47

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo number is only one single hair below the signal line. The bulls have been partying this week and have success with pumping copper and commodities higher.

The bears are in charge but the bulls are knocking at the door. CPER must remain above 21.27 and it should since copper futures are up +0.9% currently. With copper in the bull camp, commodities are the next set up to go bullish and GTX rallied higher yesterday. GTX needs to move above 3623 to signal the all-clear for stocks. RTH above 163.65, XLF above 32.51 and VIX below 25.35 will also help the bulls.

S&P futures are down -27 points and the VIX is at 29.26 as this is typed 3 hours before the opening bell in the US for the regular session. A soggy start is on tap.

It looks like the bulls will have to do it with commodities and GTX. If copper remains in the bull camp, and GTX pops above 3623 and remains above, the imminent turn to the long side is in play. If GTX turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 3807, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Bulls are going to need about a 50-point turn around to the upside in futures if they want to bring game today and try and get the quant to flip.

10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST =
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST =
10/5/22; 2:57 PM EST = -48; signal line is -47
10/5/22; 1:30 PM EST = -64; signal line is -45
10/5/22; 12:42 PM EST = -50; signal line is -42
10/5/22; 12:15 PM EST = -64; signal line is -40
10/5/22; 11:33 AM EST = -50; signal line is -38
10/3/22; 9:36 AM EST = -64; signal line is -37
10/2/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -48; signal line is -35

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. Utilities were the final nail in the stock market's coffin last week. It is remarkable that UTIL actually fell to that 888 number called out in the previous post (before it happened). It did not appear likely days before. The stock market did not wait around for this week instead flushing all equities lower as the utes crumbled.

Utilities will continue adding to the stock market malaise this week unless the bulls can push UTIL back above 954 and then 977. It is a tall order starting from 888.

Bears are in control. The algo number is 13 points below the signal line which is not as much of an advantage for the bears as would be expected considering the market carnage. Bulls need higher utilities and commodities and lower volatility. OPEC is cutting supplies so oil prices will rise boosting commodities.

Keystone prints a pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning before the opening bell.

10/9/22; 7:00 PM EST = 
10/7/22; 9:00 AM EST = 
10/2/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 = -48; signal line is -35
9/30/22; 10:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -34
9/27/22; 10:00 AM EST = -48; signal line is -33
9/26/22; 9:38 AM EST = -50; signal line is -33

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market endures more punishment. The beatings will continue until moral improves. UTIL lost the 976 bull/bear line in the sand so stocks remain soggy in the Monday session. S&P futures are up about +50 points as this is typed 1 hour before the US open.

Bulls need either UTIL above 976 and/or VIX below 25.45. Either one will immediately confirm that a bottom is in for stocks and a rally should begin. Both turning bullish would represent a strong recovery rally underway. If stocks rally but the 2 parameters remain bearish, the bulls got nothing and stocks will likely roll over lower again.

On utes, UTIL 888 is another important number for this week but UTIL is at 953 comfortably above the 888 which is a bullish signal. Here is what's interesting. Next week, Keybot the Quant already identifies UTIL 954 as a key bull/bear line in the sand for all of next week (the 888 becomes meaningless). Look how that puppy came straight down to sit at 953-954. It tells you what is occurring. Stocks are likely bottoming this week but the major tell and greenlight for a rally will be if UTIL ends the week above or below 954.

Watch UTIL like a hawk since it will tell you the direction of stocks ahead. A drop in utes below 953 today and deteriorating lower is extremely bad news for the US stock market and indicates that a major crash is likely going to happen at any time forward.

If utes rally today, that is a hopeful sign for bulls that the relief rally is beginning. UTIL above 976 will signal that a bull rally is underway and strengthening.

The bears are in charge but the algo number is only 17 points below the signal line and came within 1 point out of the gate yesterday. This hints that the quant is sniffing out a potential bottom but time will tell since Keybot the Quant only sees 1's and 0's.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number this morning and another on Friday morning. EOQ3 is at hand (end of third quarter; July, August, September) and Q4 begins on Saturday.

10/2/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ3 =
9/30/22; 10:00 AM EST =
9/27/22; 10:00 AM EST =
9/26/22; 9:38 AM EST = -50; signal line is -33
9/26/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -33
9/25/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -32
9/23/22; 3:49 PM EST = -50; signal line is -32
9/23/22; 11:37 AM EST = -66; signal line is -31
9/23/22; 11:22 AM EST = -50; signal line is -30
9/23/22; 10:47 AM EST = -66; signal line is -29
9/23/22; 9:37 AM EST = -50; signal line is -27
9/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market is hammered. Most every sector is down creating negativity. Markets sink after the Federal Reserve rate decision this afternoon.

It is perhaps the time of destiny. Utilities are holding up through the mayhem. However, if UTIL loses the 977-980 level, the United States stock market will crash. UTL begins tomorrow at 995.

Bulls must stop the utes from falling further at all costs and at the same time rally anything they can to establish a base and stop the downward swoon.

A relief rally is overdue and will likely begin any day. If UTIL 977-980 fails, it is all ovah.

9/25/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/20/22; 9:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26
9/19/22; 9:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26
9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -25

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 25 points below the signal line. Utilities remain an important influencer on stock market direction. UTIL 980.42 is the key bull/bear line in the sand for this week. UTIL begins at 1012 so this creates a bullish lift to stocks. Tell that to the S&P futures tanking -40 points after President Biden says the US will join the fight supporting Taiwan if China invades. 

Thus, that 25 point difference and favorability for bears will likely be decreased substantively since UTIL should remain above 980. If UTIL deteriorates and loses the 974-980 level, it is likely that the US stock market will crash. Bulls must keep UTIL above 980 all this week.

The other 3 parameters the quant is tracking right now are banks, volatility and copper. All 3 are in the bear camp creating  market negativity. If utes turn bullish at the opening bell, which is likely, and any one of these 3 parameters turn bullish, Keybot the Quant will champing at the bit to flip long. Bulls need XLF above 33.70, VIX below 25.29 and/or CPER above 21.78.

Copper futures need to rally about +2.2% to create stock market positivity and futures are trading down -1% currently so now the red metal needs +3.2% to help the bulls. VIX is trading at 27.79 right now popping this morning after the Biden comments 2-1/2 sticks from the bull/bear line in the sand. GS, BAC and XLF are all trading down in the pre-market so the bulls are not going to get help from the banks either, at least at the open. The Whitehouse will likely provide clarity on the Taiwan comments today further impacting stocks.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Tuesday morning. The Federal Reserve rate decision is Wednesday afternoon. The beat goes on.

9/25/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/20/22; 9:00 AM EST =
9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST = -50; signal line is -25
9/16/22; 10:00 AM EST = -50; signal line is -25
9/15/22; 2:54 PM EST = -50; signal line is -24

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bears are winning the day creating global fear that a serious recession or worse is on the come. If you were watching utilities, as you should have been, UTIL fell through 1020.31 ushering in the afternoon stock market carnage yesterday.

Utes recovered briefly which sent stocks higher, but then rolled over with UTIL finishing at 1016. Bulls need UTIL back above 1020 pronto or the stock market selling pain will continue.

Banks and vol are also in play. Bulls need XLF above 33.75 (now at 33.36) to stop the selling. Bulls need VIX below 25.29 (now trading at 27.28 in real-time) to stop the blood-bath. The bears are cruising with the algo number 26 points below the signal line.

UTIL above 1020 will likely signal that the selling is over and bulls will reexert themselves.

If UTIL loses 1000, there will be big trouble. If UTIL loses 974, the US stock market will go into a crash profile.

Anyone long the market needs either UTIL 1020, XLF 33.75 or VIX 25.29 to breathe a sigh of relief. If the 3 remain in the bear camp, the stock market selling will continue unabated setting up a potential UTIL 974 tragedy. It's fun.

Utilities, banks and volatility are all that matter right now. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the regular session opens.

9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/22; 10:00 AM EST =
9/15/22; 2:54 PM EST = -50; signal line is -24
9/15/22; 2:37 PM EST = -34; signal line is -23
9/15/22; 2:07 PM EST = -50; signal line is -23
9/13/22; 1:49 PM EST = -34; signal line is -22

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear side at 11 AM EST today at SPX 3987. The move comes out of left field as the bulls were sitting on easy street. The inflation data is hotter than expected so panic sets in that the Fed will have to raise rates faster and higher. Volatility was first to flip creating weakness. The banks and retail stocks are what flushed the whole shooting match to Hell. It was a major bed-sh*tting.

The stock market remains a choppy coin-flip with the quant wanting to flip back to the long side in the afternoon but when that failed (the bulls pushed the VIX down to 25.25 as the robot called out ahead of time but the VIX bounced leading into the final 2 hours of market carnage) it was all over but the crying.

One key sector continues helping the bulls; utilities. There are a lot of moving parts right now but to pull out a few parameters, watch UTIL 1020.31, XLF 33.76 and VIX 25.28.

Bears need UTIL below 1020.31. If this occurs, there will be more stock market carnage and a blood-bath on Wall Street without end.

Bulls need XLF above 33.76 and/or VIX below 25.28 to stop the selling and at least stabilize stocks sideways. Both parameters turning bullish will create a big reversal rally to the upside.

Caution is warranted since markets remain unstable and erratic and the algo number is only 12 points below the signal line.

On the last trade, that ran for not even a week, the quant program gains about +1% and the actual trading gains +2%. For the year thus far, finishing up with Q3 in a couple weeks, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -16%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +18% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +21% so far in 2022. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/22; 10:00 AM EST =
9/13/22; 1:49 PM EST = -34; signal line is -22
9/13/22; 1:33 PM EST = -20; signal line is -22 but algorithm remains short
9/13/22; 10:56 AM EST = -34; signal line is -21; go short 3987; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -16.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +18.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +21.2%)
9/13/22; 10:39 AM EST = -18; signal line is -22
9/13/22; 10:04 AM EST = -2; signal line is -22
9/11/22; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is -21
9/8/22; 10:21 AM EST = +12; signal line is -21
9/7/22; 12:32 PM EST = -4; signal line is -22
9/7/22; 12:24 PM EST = -20; signal line is -22
9/7/22; 11:25 AM EST = -4; signal line is -21; go long 3944; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +17.0%)(Actual results this trade = +6.1%; Actual results for 2022 = +19.2%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are cruising with  the algo number 33 points above the signal line. Short covering creates spurts higher in stocks as bears capitulate exiting short positions. Bulls need higher chips, copper and commodities to keep the party going and copper is already cooperating this morning creating buoyancy in US stock futures.

Bulls need SOX above 2800. SMH and XSD are not trading as yet but both INTC and AMD are a hair higher. Bulls need CPER above 21.85. Price begins the day only a dime below. Copper futures are up +0.7% this morning so CPER should pop to 21.90 leaping into the bull camp. Stronger copper is the main driver of the higher futures currently. Stronger commodities will also help bulls that need GTX above 3705.

On the bear side, it is really all about volatility. Bears need higher volatility to stop the stock market rally. Bears need VIX to move higher and pop above 25.25 which would at least stop the rally from proceeding higher.

Bears need VIX above 25.25. Bulls need CPER above 21.85 which will likely happen at the opening bell creating market joy, SOX above 2800 and GTX above 3705. Use these four parameters to forecast stock market direction.

For example, if stocks rally to beat the band but copper, chips and commodities do not achieve any of the bull targets, the rally is phony-baloney and will fade. If stocks go into a big selloff but the VIX does not go above 25.25, the bears got nothing and the selling will stop, reverse, and a rally will begin. Everything is going the bulls way but inflation data is on tap which may change the mood.

9/18/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/16/22; 10:00 AM EST =
9/11/22; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is -21
9/8/22; 10:21 AM EST = +12; signal line is -21

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains in the bull camp as the banks win the day creating another leg higher in stocks. Utes, retail and volatility remain bullish and the financials join the upside in Party Town. The algo number is 33 points above the signal line building a comfortable lead.

The banks and copper are battling deciding the path forward for the stock market. Bulls will remain happy if XLF stays above 33.68 and will create another upside leg in stocks if copper rallies. Bulls need CPER above 21.88 to unleash big upside ahead. CPER is at 21.33 so that is 55 cents the bulls need which is 2.6%. Look at that. The bulls are pumping copper futures this morning up +2.0%. It looks like the bulls want to maintain happy stocks into the weekend and are trying for a big stock market rally if they can push copper +2.7% higher.

Conversely, the bears want copper to remain weak and the XLF to collapse under 33.68 to prove that the upside rally in stocks is finished.

UTIL is at 1046 and needs to stay above 1020.31 for all of next week to maintain the bull party. Check UTIL at the end of the session. As long as price is above 1020, next week will shape up as positive but if utes collapse today and UTIL ends the week sub 1020, it will be a negative issue for next week. 

9/11/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/8/22; 10:21 AM EST = +12; signal line is -21
9/7/22; 12:32 PM EST = -4; signal line is -22

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 3944. As explained in the previous post, the utes, retail stocks and volatility told the tale. You could see the robot was moving that way. The algo number is only 18 points above the signal line so the bulls are going to have to prove that they can keep the rally going.

Banks are making a late day run watching it in real-time. Bulls need XLF above 33.64. Price is jumping higher to 33.52, now down. That is only a dime away from creating another up leg for stocks.

The UTIL bull/bear line in the sand for this week is 1035.30 and price is at 1048 creating stock market upside. The RTH bull/bear line in the sand is 168.00 with price leaping towards 171 creating bullishness. The VIX bull/bear line in the sand is 25.84 and price drops to a 24 handle completing the trifecta of bullish joy and upside orgy.

The bulls are driving the market ship again and need XLF 33.64 to prove that they got more upside game. Bears need UTIL below 1035.30, RTH below 168 and/or VIX above 25.84 to stop the rally. Any 1 of the 3 would do. If all three remain bullish, stocks will likely pump higher into the weekend.

As a side note for the more advanced kids, yes, you with the pimples, pay attention. UTIL 1035.30 will be meaningless next week replaced by 1020.31. Thus, watch the utilities especially late Friday afternoon to see where UTIL ends the week. If UTIL ends Friday above 1020.31, that tells you next week is a go for bulls. If UTIL stumbles from here and falls through 1035.30 tomorrow or Friday that is trouble for stocks, and if it ends Friday below 1020.31, that means next week is going to start out ugly.

On the last trade, the algo program gains +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant gains +6%. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, the SPX, the United States stock market, is down -17%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +17% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +19% outperforming the benchmark by 36 percentage points (that's a lot). Keybot the Quant exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's.

XLF 33.64, UTIL 1035.30 this week and 1020.31 next week, RTH 168 and VIX 25.84 are the current parameters dictating stock market direction. They tell you where the stock market puck is going not where it's been.

As this windbag post is typed, XLF finishes the session at 33.47 so that is 17 pennies in the bear camp creating stock market sogginess.

UTIL ends at 1047, RTH at 171 and VIX down to 24.76 all three creating market joy. One of these 4 parameters will flinch tomorrow and tell you what is going on.

9/11/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/7/22; 12:32 PM EST = -4; signal line is -22
9/7/22; 12:24 PM EST = -20; signal line is -22
9/7/22; 11:25 AM EST = -4; signal line is -21; go long 3944; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +17.0%)(Actual results this trade = +6.1%; Actual results for 2022 = +19.2%)
9/7/22; 10:59 AM EST = -20; signal line is -21 but algorithm remains short
9/7/22; 10:36 AM EST = -34; signal line is -20
9/6/22; 9:42 AM EST = -50; signal line is -20
9/6/22; 9:36 AM EST = -36; signal line is -18
9/6/22; 3:06 AM EST = -20; signal line is -16
9/5/22; 11:30 AM EST = -34; signal line is -15
9/5/22; 10:44 AM EST = -20; signal line is -12
9/5/22; 3:06 AM EST = -34; signal line is -10
9/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
9/2/22; 3:55 PM EST = -20; signal line is -4
9/2/22; 3:40 PM EST = -34; signal line is -3
9/2/22; 9:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +0
9/1/22; 3:55 PM EST = -20; signal line is +1
9/1/22; 3:21 AM EST = -34; signal line is +2
8/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +5
8/31/22; 3:10 PM EST = -20; signal line is +6
8/31/22; 2:38 PM EST = -34; signal line is +8
8/31/22; 2:04 PM EST = -20; signal line is +10
8/31/22; 1:44 PM EST = -34; signal line is +12
8/31/22; 4:11 AM EST = -20; signal line is +14
8/30/22; 11:21 AM EST = -34; signal line is +16
8/30/22; 10:06 AM EST = -20; signal line is +17
8/30/22; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +19
8/30/22; 3:38 AM EST = +7; signal line is +19
8/29/22; 3:59 PM EST = -7; signal line is +19
8/29/22; 12:48 PM EST = +7; signal line is +20
8/29/22; 12:36 PM EST = -7; signal line is +20
8/29/22; 12:31 PM EST = +7; signal line is +21
8/29/22; 12:05 PM EST = -9; signal line is +21
8/29/22; 9:36 AM EST = -23; signal line is +22
8/28/22; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is +22
8/26/22; 3:56 PM EST = +7; signal line is +23; go short 4064; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -14.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +14.0%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +13.1%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Happy Labor Day. Keybot the Quant remains short the US stock market as the news bombs send equities in one violent direction or another. Friday at noon Gazprom announced that the Nord Stream pipeline would not reopen sending the euro into a tailspin, the US dollar higher, and US stocks into the toilet. European stocks are playing catch-up getting flushed today.

The bears are in control of stocks with the algo number 24 points below the signal line. Volatility, utilities and retail stocks are controlling stock market direction currently and their interplay dictates the road ahead.

UTIL is at 1014 ready to start the holiday-shortened trading week tomorrow. The problem for bulls is that UTIL must be above 1035.30 all week long to send the stock market higher. Thus, out of the gate tomorrow morning, utes are going to create stock market weakness. Watch UTIL closely because if it rallies like a banshee and overtakes 1035, the bulls are creating a come-back rally. UTIL below 1035 will create soggy stocks.

The VIX bull/bear line in the sand is 25.98. Despite the big sell-off on Friday, the VIX remained below 25.98 indicating that the selling is not a big deal but the VIX is now back above 25.98 at 26.20 indicating potential challenges ahead. It is only 22 pennies on the bear side (remember, volatility moves inversely to stocks over 90% of the time) so volatility remains a toss-up. Watch the VIX like a hawk in the morning to see where it is at in relation to 25.98.

Retail stocks are also in play. RTH is at 166.79 in the bear camp below the 168 bull/bear line in the sand. If RTH remains below 168, stocks will remain soggy. If RTH moves above 168, stocks are going to rally higher going forward.

Thus, bears need to keep UTIL below 1035, RTH below 168 and VIX above 25.98 and it is smooth sailing for downside stock market carnage ahead.

Bulls need to pull UTIL above 1035, RTH above 168 and VIX below 25.98. You can see that the bears are in the driver's seat but these parameters can change quickly. There is no need to watch the stock market direction; just watch these 3 parameters that will tell you where the stock market is going instead of where it has been.

If any of the 3 parameters turn bullish, consider the caution flag out. If 2 of the 3 turn bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play. If all 3 turn bullish, stocks will be running higher in a big rally and Keybot the Quant will likely have already flipped long. Those numbers remain valid for the next couple-three days. 

9/11/22; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/22; 3:06 AM EST = -34; signal line is -10
9/4/22; 7:00 PM EST = -20; signal line is -6
9/2/22; 3:55 PM EST = -20; signal line is -4
9/2/22; 3:40 PM EST = -34; signal line is -3
9/2/22; 9:00 AM EST = -20; signal line is +0
9/1/22; 3:55 PM EST = -20; signal line is +1
9/1/22; 3:21 AM EST = -34; signal line is +2
8/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -20; signal line is +5
8/31/22; 3:10 PM EST = -20; signal line is +6
8/31/22; 2:38 PM EST = -34; signal line is +8
8/31/22; 2:04 PM EST = -20; signal line is +10
8/31/22; 1:44 PM EST = -34; signal line is +12
8/31/22; 4:11 AM EST = -20; signal line is +14
8/30/22; 11:21 AM EST = -34; signal line is +16
8/30/22; 10:06 AM EST = -20; signal line is +17
8/30/22; 10:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +19
8/30/22; 3:38 AM EST = +7; signal line is +19
8/29/22; 3:59 PM EST = -7; signal line is +19
8/29/22; 12:48 PM EST = +7; signal line is +20
8/29/22; 12:36 PM EST = -7; signal line is +20
8/29/22; 12:31 PM EST = +7; signal line is +21
8/29/22; 12:05 PM EST = -9; signal line is +21
8/29/22; 9:36 AM EST = -23; signal line is +22
8/28/22; 7:00 PM EST = +7; signal line is +22
8/26/22; 3:56 PM EST = +7; signal line is +23; go short 4064; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -14.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +14.0%)(Actual results this trade = +3.4%; Actual results for 2022 = +13.1%)