STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The stock market went to Hell in a handbag late last week. Friday was ugly with the SPX dropping almost -3%. Futures are down to begin the week. China indexes crash -5% and more overnight as COVID-19 attacks Beijing. Commodities, and copper, sell off since China is the largest user of commodities on the planet.

The US stock market suffered serious internal damage. Bears are cruising with the algo number 54 points below the signal line.

Friday's carnage started with higher volatility. Fed Chairman Powell's jackboot slipped off the throat of volatility so the VIX jumps higher sinking stocks. Next, copper failed which is a biggie. If Dr Copper is sick, everyone is sick. Then, as the stock market stumbled trying to regain its footing, pow, the knockout blow is the failure in retail stocks. The SPX  falls to the mat.

The selling will continue if commodities and utilities weaken. The bulls can immediately stop the selling if they push RTH above 181.48, CPER above 28.27 and/or VIX below 23.65. Any 1 of the 3 will do.

Copper futures are trading lower. VIX is at 29.31. It looks like the bull's hopes are pinned on retail stocks while  the bears plan on beating utes and commodities with a baseball bat.

With the VIX near 30, the intraday point moves and day to day point moves will increase dramatically. Hold on as Brittany sings.

5/1/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
4/26/22; 10:00 AM EST =
4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +35
4/22/22; 1:39 PM EST = -19; signal line is +36
4/22/22; 10:13 AM EST = -3; signal line is +37
4/22/22; 9:37 AM EST = +13; signal line is +38
4/21/22; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +39; go short 4453; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -6.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +3.4%)(Actual results this trade = +1.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips bearish at SPX 4453 at munch time in these fast-moving markets. Easy peasy. Bears need CPER below 28.33 and VIX above 23.46.

Bulls need NYA above 16700, SPX above 4462 and/or XLF above 38.12. Any port in a storm will do so any one parameter flipping back to the bull camp will stop the stock market selling. If these three remain bearish, however, there will be Hell to pay, and VIX and CPER would create bloody carnage.

On the last trade that only ran for about 15 hours, almost triggering the whipsaw timer but it did not, the quant program gains about 1% and the actual trading 1.5%. For the year thus far, the SPX is down about -7%, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up about +3% and the actual trading generated by the quant is down about -3% in 2022. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. The markets are erratic and unstable so anything can happen, as Ellie sings even another whipsaw.

Pay attention to NYA 16700 and SPX 4462 since these numbers represent all the marbles for the United States stock market.

4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/21/22; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +39; go short 4453; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -6.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +3.4%)(Actual results this trade = +1.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -2.9%)
4/21/22; 12:08 PM EST = +41; signal line is +38
4/21/22; 10:43 AM EST = +55; signal line is +36
4/21/22; 10:17 AM EST = +71; signal line is +35
4/21/22; 9:44 AM EST = +55; signal line is +33
4/21/22; 9:37 AM EST = +71; signal line is +33
4/21/22; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +32
4/20/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +31
4/20/22; 3:18 PM EST = +55; signal line is +31
4/20/22; 2:42 PM EST = +41; signal line is +30
4/20/22; 12:56 PM EST = +55; signal line is +29
4/20/22; 11:18 AM EST = +39; signal line is +27
4/20/22; 10:15 AM EST = +55; signal line is +28
4/20/22; 9:50 AM EST = +39; signal line is +26
4/20/22; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +25
4/19/22; 3:59 PM EST = +27; signal line is +24
4/19/22; 3:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +25
4/19/22; 9:54 AM EST = +27; signal line is +25; go long  4420; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -7.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +2.6%)(Actual results this trade = +4.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -4.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the financials dance along the bull-bear tightrope at XLF 38.15.

Bulls win big if XLF moves above 38.15 which will create many days of upside ahead.

Bears will be happy if XLF remains sub 38.15 in the bear camp, and gleeful if CPER drops below 28.30,  NYA below 16700 and/or SPX below 4462. If 1 of these 3 turn bearish stocks will be soggy. If 2 of the 3 turn bearish, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the bear camp and if all 3 turn bearish, stocks will be falling apart. Choose your Poison.

XLF 38.15, CPER 28.30, NYA 16700 and SPX 4462 are all that matter right now. They tell you the direction and magnitude of the stock market going forward. XLF is at 38.06 (bearish), CPER is at 28.55 (bullish), NYA at 16785 (bullish) and SPX at 4485 (bullish).

4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/21/22; 10:43 AM EST = +55; signal line is +36
4/21/22; 10:17 AM EST = +71; signal line is +35
4/21/22; 9:44 AM EST = +55; signal line is +33

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the wild stock market action continues. The SPX lost the critical 4462 level again but catapults back above after this morning's (Thursday) opening bell. The banks and copper are controlling stock market direction today. The quant spits out 8 numbers yesterday and already 3 more this morning.

Bulls need XLF above 38.15 to keep the rally going. XLF already flipped bullish, then bearish, today, and continues battling at 38.15 right now. It is important.

Bears need CPER below 28.30 which represents a -1.2% drop in copper futures so the red metal will have to retrace its +1.2% gain today.

The SPX is well above 4462 and NYA above 16700, critical cyclical market indicators, so the bulls are grinning like Cheshire cats while partying with a hookah smoking caterpillar. 

The banks tell the direction forward. The stock market has legs higher if XLF dances above 38.15 and higher. The bears will begin reasserting themselves if XLF cannot move above 38.15.

The bulls remains confident with the algo number 22 comfortable points above the signal line. Keep an eye on copper today.

4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/21/22; 9:44 AM EST = +55; signal line is +33
4/21/22; 9:37 AM EST = +71; signal line is +33
4/21/22; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +32
4/20/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +31
4/20/22; 3:18 PM EST = +55; signal line is +31
4/20/22; 2:42 PM EST = +41; signal line is +30
4/20/22; 12:56 PM EST = +55; signal line is +29
4/20/22; 11:18 AM EST = +39; signal line is +27
4/20/22; 10:15 AM EST = +55; signal line is +28
4/20/22; 9:50 AM EST = +39; signal line is +26
4/20/22; 9:36 AM EST = +55; signal line is +25
4/19/22; 3:59 PM EST = +27; signal line is +24

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long yesterday morning at SPX 4420. The stock market remains a coin-flip with chop suey chewing up bulls and bears alike. Lower volatility creates stock market buoyancy.

The huge decision on tap right now is the SPX teetering at 4462 the exact line in the sand that dictates a cyclical bull market ahead versus a cyclical bear. The stakes do not get any higher. Bulls win big above 4462. Bears will create bloody carnage below 4462.

Bears need the SPX to remain at 4462 or lower. Bears also need weaker copper and for futures to fall about -1.1% which may be doable today. Weaker copper must occur for stocks to drop. Bears need VIX above 23.45 but it is 3 sticks below.

Bulls need SPX above 4462 and they will shine going forward. Bulls also need NYA above 16698 which tells you if the rally has legs, or not. Bulls need stronger banks and XLF above 38.15 which would create robust stock market strength.

On the last trade that ran for almost 3 weeks, the quant program gains about +3% and the actual trading gains +4%. For the year thus far, the S&P 500 US stock market benchmark index is down -7%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm is up about +3% in 2022 and the actual trading is down about -4%. Keybot exits SH and enters SSO back into the 2x ETF's as the whipsaw timer has expired.

The algo number is only 3 measly points above the signal line so it is not a ringing endorsement of the long side but that is where the robot is at right now and why the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. Flip the coin. Stay alert for a whipsaw back to the short side especially if the SPX and copper begin falling apart with volatility spiking. Interestingly, copper futures are down -1.1% on the dot right now with futures flat.

4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/19/22; 3:59 PM EST = +27; signal line is +24
4/19/22; 3:21 PM EST = +41; signal line is +25
4/19/22; 9:54 AM EST = +27; signal line is +25; go long  4420; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -7.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +2.6%)(Actual results this trade = +4.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -4.4%)
4/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +26 but algorithm remains short
4/18/22; 10:25 AM EST = +27; signal line is +27 but algorithm remains short
4/18/22; 9:57 AM EST = +13; signal line is +28
4/17/22; 7:00 PM EST = +27; signal line is +29
4/14/22; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +30
4/13/22; 9:41 AM EST = +27; signal line is +31
4/13/22; 8:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +33
4/13/22; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +34
4/12/22; 2:21 PM EST = +13; signal line is +33
4/12/22; 9:37 AM EST = +27; signal line is +35
4/12/22; 8:37 AM EST = +11; signal line is +38
4/11/22; 3:48 PM EST = -3; signal line is +40
4/11/22; 12:03 PM EST = +11; signal line is +43
4/11/22; 9:43 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46
4/10/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +48
4/7/22; 1:13 PM EST = +41; signal line is +50
4/7/22; 11:33 AM EST = +27; signal line is +51
4/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +52
4/6/22; 2:36 PM EST = +25; signal line is +53
4/6/22; 2:20 PM EST = +11; signal line is +54
4/6/22; 2:13 PM EST = +25; signal line is +56
4/6/22; 1:07 PM EST = +41; signal line is +59
4/6/22; 11:51 AM EST = +25; signal line is +60
4/6/22; 10:06 AM EST = +11; signal line is +61
4/6/22; 9:41 AM EST = +25; signal line is +61
4/5/22; 9:46 AM EST = +41; signal line is +62
4/3/22; 7:00 PM EST = +55; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 3:53 PM EST = +55; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 3:43 PM EST = +39; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 1:44 PM EST = +55; signal line is +64
4/1/22; 12:09 PM EST = +41; signal line is +64
4/1/22; 9:46 AM EST = +55; signal line is +65
4/1/22; 9:36 AM EST = +71; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
4/1/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +63
3/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +41; signal line is +62
3/31/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +62; go short 4530; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -4.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +6.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market rides the up and down roller coaster. The four parameters impacting stock market direction are VIX 23.87, CPER 28.27, NYA 16693 and SPX 4462. Bears need higher volatility and weaker copper to keep the negativity going. Bulls need stronger NYA and SPX indexes to prove that they can flip the quant long.

The algo number is only 4 points below the signal line so the market is a coin-flip right now. Bears need VIX above 23.87 but it is trading with a 21 handle right now. Bears need CPER below 28.27 which reflects a -1.2% drop in copper futures but they are trading up +0.2% currently.

Bulls need NYA above 16693 and SPX above 4462 and both goals are only a few points away. These two are critical cyclical stock market indicators and tell you the path ahead for stocks for weeks and months to come. Prices have been back-checking these important numbers the last few days so it is time to make a decision. The ramifications to the market are huge.

If the bulls cannot push prices above the NYA 16693 and SPX 4462, there will be Hell to pay going forward since the back tests would be successful (for bears). If the bulls push prices above these numbers, there are blue skies and rainbows ahead for next week.

The Easter weekend is here and stocks are usually bullish in front of a 3-day holiday weekend and also bullish through the full moon that will peak on Saturday for the month. Thus, the background currents favor bulls but there are other flies in the ointment. Banks are reporting earnings this morning and that will drive sentiment and dictate today's outcome.

If the bulls push either NYA above 16693 or SPX above 4462, into the bull camp, either one would do (and the SPX is above 4454 if the NYA flips bullish), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. The banks are going to tell the tale today.

Bears got nothing unless the VIX runs above 23.87. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number shortly after the opening bell. Happy Easter.

4/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/22; 10:00 AM EST =
4/13/22; 9:41 AM EST = +27; signal line is +31
4/13/22; 8:36 AM EST = +13; signal line is +33
4/13/22; 3:06 AM EST = +27; signal line is +34
4/12/22; 2:21 PM EST = +13; signal line is +33
4/12/22; 9:37 AM EST = +27; signal line is +35
4/12/22; 8:37 AM EST = +11; signal line is +38
4/11/22; 3:48 PM EST = -3; signal line is +40

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side with the algo number 43 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising but the market can change at the drop of a hat these days. The SPX loses the critical 12-month MA at 4458-4463 ushering in extreme weakness. Copper also fails and volatility jumps into the bear camp. Fed Chairman Powell's jackboot slips off the throat of volatility and, like trying to keep a beachball underwater, bloop, the buoyant VIX ball pops higher with vengeance when your hands slip.

Thus, SPX 4460-ish, CPER 28.23 and VIX 23.95 jump into the bear camp and need to be reversed if the bulls want to stop the selling. Bears need RTH below 181.26 which will create further stock market weakness. Bulls need a higher SPX index, higher copper and lower vol while bears need weaker retail stocks.

Copper futures need to pop about +0.5% to jump back into the bull camp. Copper is trading up +0.9% so this is why futures and stocks are stabilizing at the flat line waiting for further direction. The VIX is trading right now at 24.35 above the 23.95 bull/bear line in the sand so stock weakness will continue unless VIX drops under 23.95. The SPX begins the Tuesday session in the US at 4413 and needs about 50 points to regain the crucial SPX 12-mth MA at 4460-ish.

You can gauge any relief rally by the SPX, CPER and VIX. The bulls likely need all 3 to flip back to the bull side for Keybot to flip long. If 1 parameter flips long, consider the caution flag out. If 2 flip bullish, the imminent turn to the long side would be in play. If all 3 flip long, the quant will likely flip long. If RTH loses 181.26, start thinking about a crash profile for the US stock market.

4/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/14/22; 10:00 AM EST =
4/11/22; 3:48 PM EST = -3; signal line is +40
4/11/22; 12:03 PM EST = +11; signal line is +43
4/11/22; 9:43 AM EST = +27; signal line is +46
4/10/22; 7:00 PM EST = +41; signal line is +48
4/7/22; 1:13 PM EST = +41; signal line is +50
4/7/22; 11:33 AM EST = +27; signal line is +51
4/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short but the algo number is only 11 points below the signal line. Bears need the SPX below 4463, weaker retail stocks and higher volatility while bulls need a higher NYA index.

Bears need SPX below 4463, RTH below 180.45 and VIX above 24.22 to create a Highway to Hell. Bulls need the NYA above 16693 to sing O Happy Days.

If NYA moves above 16693, and the SPX is above 4504 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. For now, the caution flag is out but if NYA goes bullish, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

SPX 4463, RTH 180.45, VIX 24.22 and NYA 16693 are the only parameters that matter to finish out the week. If SPX 4463 fails, things are going to turn very ugly and carnage is likely on tap.

4/10/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/6/22; 2:45 PM EST = +41; signal line is +52
4/6/22; 2:36 PM EST = +25; signal line is +53
4/6/22; 2:20 PM EST = +11; signal line is +54
4/6/22; 2:13 PM EST = +25; signal line is +56
4/6/22; 1:07 PM EST = +41; signal line is +59
4/6/22; 11:51 AM EST = +25; signal line is +60
4/6/22; 10:06 AM EST = +11; signal line is +61
4/6/22; 9:41 AM EST = +25; signal line is +61
4/5/22; 9:46 AM EST = +41; signal line is +62
4/3/22; 7:00 PM EST = +55; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 3:53 PM EST = +55; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 3:43 PM EST = +39; signal line is +63
4/1/22; 1:44 PM EST = +55; signal line is +64
4/1/22; 12:09 PM EST = +41; signal line is +64
4/1/22; 9:46 AM EST = +55; signal line is +65

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short through the choppy open. Bears need to push NYA back below 16690 which would create bigtime selling pressure.

Bulls need SOX above 3435 and XLF above 38.63. The NYA index, chips and banks are controlling stock market direction today. Nothing Else Matters, as Metallica sings. The stock market is a crap shoot these days.

4/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/1/22; 9:46 AM EST = +55; signal line is +65
4/1/22; 9:36 AM EST = +71; signal line is +64 but algorithm remains short
4/1/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +63

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bear camp during the final minute yesterday at SPX 4540. The stock market fell apart into the close with banks and chips failing.

Bears need weaker retail stocks to continue the negative party. Bears need RTH below 180.24. Also, if copper futures fall -2% today, that tells you the stock market is in serious trouble (currently down -0.8%).

Bulls need to pump banks, chips and the NYA higher. Bulls need XLF above 38.63, SOX above 3438 and NYA above 16690. The NYA is key since it currently calls for a cyclical bear market going forward. Bulls need all 3 to flip the quant long immediately or 2 of the 3 with the SPX above 4600 which is a tall order today.

The crazy whipsaw and choppy action may continue. On the last trade, the algo program gains +5% and is now flat on the year. The actual trading generated by the quant gains almost +7% redeeming itself from the last trade now down about -8% on the year. The S&P 500 benchmark index is down -5% on the year thus far. Q2 begins today. Keybot the Quant remains in the single 1x ETF's for another couple weeks due to the whipsaw timer activation. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH.

4/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
4/1/22; 9:00 AM EST = +41; signal line is +63
3/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ1 = +41; signal line is +62
3/31/22; 3:59 PM EST = +41; signal line is +62; go short 4540; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -4.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +5.2%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +6.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.4%)
3/31/22; 3:36 PM EST = +71; signal line is +59
3/29/22; 10:00 AM EST = +87; signal line is +56
3/28/22; 12:55 PM EST = +88; signal line is +52
3/28/22; 11:52 AM EST = +74; signal line is +49
3/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = +88; signal line is +46
3/25/22; 10:00 AM EST = +88; signal line is +43
3/24/22; 3:59 PM EST = +88; signal line is +40
3/24/22; 10:38 AM EST = +74; signal line is +37
3/23/22; 1:16 PM EST = +58; signal line is +34
3/23/22; 10:55 AM EST = +74; signal line is +31
3/23/22; 9:38 AM EST = +58; signal line is +29
3/23/22; 9:36 AM EST = +74; signal line is +26
3/22/22; 9:36 AM EST = +88; signal line is +24
3/21/22; 3:59 PM EST = +74; signal line is +21
3/21/22; 1:37 PM EST = +44; signal line is +17
3/21/22; 1:22 PM EST = +30; signal line is +14
3/21/22; 12:56 PM EST = +44; signal line is +13
3/21/22; 12:36 PM EST = +58; signal line is +10
3/21/22; 11:27 AM EST = +74; signal line is +7
3/21/22; 10:46 AM EST = +58; signal line is +5
3/21/22; 9:52 AM EST = +44; signal line is +2
3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +0
3/18/22; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is -3
3/18/22; 12:56 PM EST = +46; signal line is -5
3/17/22; 12:38 PM EST = +30; signal line is -7
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is -8
3/16/22; 3:48 PM EST = +14; signal line is -9
3/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -11; go long 4314; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -5.3%)(Actual results this trade = -6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -14.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls mount a stellar relief rally. The algo number is 60 points above the signal line with the bulls on easy street without concern. The bulls sing What, Me Worry? by Portugal. The Man.

Bulls need VIX below 23.60 and NYA above 16674 to continue the upside party. If these are not attained, the bull rally will stall. VIX is trading higher now, about 100 minutes before the opening in the US, at 24.34. The NYA begins the week at 16613 only 61 points from bull victory. If the NYA 16674 is breached, the rally has bigtime legs higher. The bulls got nothing and there is likely serious pain ahead if NYA 16674 is not breached.

3/27/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/25/22; 10:00 AM EST =
3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +0
3/18/22; 1:12 PM EST = +60; signal line is -3
3/18/22; 12:56 PM EST = +46; signal line is -5
3/17/22; 12:38 PM EST = +30; signal line is -7
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +14; signal line is -8
3/16/22; 3:48 PM EST = +14; signal line is -9

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws long after the opening bell at SPX 4314. The quant did not print any numbers on Tuesday but copper whipsawed back to the bull side and the stock market followed. The algo number is 23 points above the signal line so the bulls are gathering strength. During the last 20 minutes of trading, the bulls bent the retail stocks over the lingerie counter on the fifth floor, pumping RTH, creating the upside orgy into the closing bell. Copper and retail stocks were the bull fuel today.

Stock market direction is determined by copper and retail, in the bull camp, versus banks and chips, in the bear camp. Bulls need XLF above 38.52 and SOX above 3409 to receive an enduring rally. Bears need CPER below 27.75 and RTH below 179.13 to create negativity. The movement of these 4 parameters dictates stock market direction.

Key in on retail stocks (RTH) versus banks (XLF). One or both of these parameters are going to dictate stock market direction for Thursday.

Today was Fed day so stocks are typically higher (80% of the time) during the 2 days into and through the FOMC meeting and decision and voila, it occurs. Tomorrow and Friday the markets will react after they have time to chew on the first rate hike. Stocks are also trading on China covid fears and Russia's war against Ukraine. It is all this craziness creating the whipsaw choppy slop, chop suey, chopping up bulls and bears alike.

Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number before the opening bell tomorrow but that is no great shakes, as Alabama Shakes sings Hold On. Tomorrow is St Patty's Day a day when everyone is Irish. People will be puking green beer on the sidewalks tomorrow evening. It is spring and time to let that famous Irishman out of the shed; Pat-i-o Furniture.

The last trade is a whipsaw as per the quant program only lasting 10 hours. Keybot the Quant drops into 1x ETF mode for at least 30 days. This will cut down on the losses due to the chop suey. During the last 3 weeks, the SPX changes direction at least 6 times if not 8; that is every 2 to 3 days the stock market is whipsawing back in the other direction, on average. That is erratic and nutso price action.

The quant program lost -3% on the last trade and the actual trading loses -6%. For the year, the SPX benchmark is down -10%, actually -9.5%, so it is technically out of the -10% correction phase. The Keybot the Quant program is down -5% this year and the actual trading is bludgeoned -15%. It is interesting that without the whipsaw, the robot would be flat on the year. The -15% number is likely a record negative number for the quant that is operating for 13 years running. The actual trading has been down negative double-digits before but rarely. It will be fun to watch it make a comeback. The quant exits SDS with the loss and enters SPY the 1x long ETF.

Do not be surprised if the robot whipsaws back to the short side over the next day or two. If CPER and RTH fail, this outcome is likely. Watch RTH 179.13 and XLF 38.52 tomorrow because they likely dictate stock market direction.

3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
3/16/22; 3:48 PM EST = +14; signal line is -9
3/16/22; 9:36 AM EST = -2; signal line is -11; go long 4314; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.1%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -5.3%)(Actual results this trade = -6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = -14.9%)
3/14/22; 12:56 PM EST = -18; signal line is -12; go short 4185; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -13.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the quant flips to the short side at SPX 4185 at munch time. Copper finally fails but it would have been more helpful if it would have failed days ago. This morning, with S&P futures up over 30 points, you saw that copper was down -2.2% so you knew the bears would growl.

Watch the CPER 27.66 bull/bear line in the sand. Bulls win above and bears below.

On the last trade that lingered for a little over 2 weeks, the quant program loses -3.4% and the actual trading loses a whopping -13.5%. The 2x technology ETF was taken to the shed out back and whipped good. Sometimes you win with the indexes, sometimes you lose. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 index, the United States stock market, is down more than -12%, in correction mode, and in a bear market by several technical metrics. The Keybot the Quant program is down a couple percent on the year thus far and the actual trading triggered by the quant is down -9% on the year giving up the gains due to the tech shellacking. Keybot exits QLD and enters SDS. The robot should be able to make up for the lost ground.

The stock market is erratic and unstable so do not be surprised if a whipsaw occurs. Copper is in control of stock market direction currently. If CPER pops back above 27.66, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be back in play. Copper provided all the hope in the stock market over the last 2 weeks keeping stocks buoyant but the hope in the red metal, and the market, was lost today. Dr Copper is the star of the show.

3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
3/14/22; 12:56 PM EST = -18; signal line is -12; go short 4185; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -12.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -3.4%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -2.2%)(Actual results this trade = -13.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -8.9%)
3/14/22; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -12 but algorithm remains long
3/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -12
3/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -13
3/6/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -13
3/4/22; 9:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -13
2/28/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is -15
2/28/22; 1:28 PM EST = -2; signal line is -15
2/28/22; 12:28 PM EST = -18; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains long
2/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -14
2/25/22; 10:45 AM EST = -2; signal line is -14; go long 4332; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2022 = +4.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long through the ongoing choppy slop. Chop suey chops up bulls and bears alike. The SPX is at 4204 about 128 points below where the quant entered at 4332. This is extremely odd behavior not exhibited by Keybot before. The quant has not printed any numbers except for the pre-scheduled numbers for the month of March. "What's up wit dat?" as they say in the Bronx.

On closer inspection it is easy to see why. The stock market is extremely polarized. Parameters such as the banks, retail stocks and semiconductors, to name a few, are beat-up and lying in the alleyway behind the dumpster. Typically, all the sectors would be lower in unison even if some may only be flat or marginally lower. Not now. The inflation sends copper and commodities to the moon. Wheat prices leap higher leaving dirtbag Dictator Xi wondering if he can feed 1.4 billion mouths.

Also, investors are hiding in the perceived safety of utilities following a playbook from 2 decades ago. The economic cycle stuff should be chucked in the trash. The four central bank horseman of the financial apocalypse, the BOJ (Japan), ECB (Europe), PBOC (China) and Federal Reserve (USA), have destroyed the economic cycles with their interventions over the last decade. Now the fun begins. The idiots buying utes do not realize they are only covering themselves with a gauze loin cloth. The 12 years of obscene money printing by the Fed has pumped all asset classes into the stratosphere.

Parameters across the board have chosen the bull or bear camp and remain deeply entrenched in their respective camps. Hence, Keybot the Quant idles along, putt, putt, putt, dit, dit, dit, and only spits out the pre-scheduled numbers.

However, there is one parameter that is the star of the show and will dictate what happens in the week ahead. Dr Copper. The red metal is in the bull camp and the main reason the quant has not flipped short as yet despite the soggy market action last week. The bull/bear line in the sand for CPER is 27.66. Nothing Else Matters, as Metallica sings. CPER begins the new week of trading at 28.00.

Thus, the bulls are happy despite the price action in stocks, since they have copper in their camp. The bears need a -1.2% drop in CPER which will be a knife through the heart of the market with a collapse in stocks occurring. The -1.2% applies to the copper futures as well so the trading overnight will tell you how things will be going in the States on Monday.

If copper futures are negative but down -1% or less, this is no biggie, and stocks may flat line or even become buoyant moving higher. If copper futures are positive, stocks will likely rally big on Monday.

On the bear side, if copper futures drop more than -1.2%, there will be Hell to pay. The bulls are whipping the copper miner's telling the bastards to work harder to save the stock market for the elite class as the peons breathe the asbestos like the Blue Sky Mine.

If copper turns bearish (CPER 27.66) and the SPX loses 4200, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. It's all about copper.

3/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
3/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -12
3/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -13
3/6/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -13
3/4/22; 9:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -13
2/28/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is -15

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as Russia's war on Ukraine continues. In addition, President Biden provides the State of the Onion this evening at 9 PM EST.  S&P futures are down about -22 points 3-1/2 hours before the opening bell in the States.

The bears smacked copper yesterday creating the sogginess in the stock market but the bulls jammed the red metal higher and copper futures are higher overnight saving the day. February ends and March begins with 2022 flying along.

Each day the SPX remains below 4393-4394 is another nail in the bull's coffin. Bulls will throw confetti if the SPX moves above 4394. Bulls also need stronger chips and banks, SOX above 3515 and XLF above 39.30, respectively. If stocks rally, these parameters dictate the strength of any rally.

The bears need weaker copper, CPER below 27.16, but the futures are up +1.5%. Bears need weaker utilities but UTIL leaps to 943. Bears need UTIL under 915 to create trouble. The bulls are pumping utes because in a couple weeks UTIL must be above the 935 level or there will be market trouble. If UTIL collapses lower, and loses 915, and loses 9 hundo, it is likely the US stock market will go into a major crash profile.

Watch to see if copper flips negative today, if so, that likely tells you the stock market is in trouble. If CPER loses 27.16, and the SPX loses 4315, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

For now, the caution flag is out but if you see weaker copper and/or utilities, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play.

SPX 4393-4394 dictates whether Americans will have a happy year or two ahead, or, if it will be a sustained period of pain and misery. Whatever happens, face it head-on, don't be a "Big Baby" as Wanda Jackson sings.

3/6/22; 7:00 PM EST =
3/4/22; 9:00 AM EST =
2/28/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -2; signal line is -15
2/28/22; 1:28 PM EST = -2; signal line is -15
2/28/22; 12:28 PM EST = -18; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains long
2/27/22; 7:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is -14
2/25/22; 10:45 AM EST = -2; signal line is -14; go long 4332; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2022 = +4.6%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long this morning at SPX 4332 riding the upside orgy. Comically, the bulls are pumping utilities to create lift in the broad stock market. Bulls need stronger banks and for the SPX to cross above 4391-4393 which would paint a rosy picture ahead.

However, if the SPX comes up for a look at 4391-4393, and bumps its head on the resistance, and is spanked down and rejected, there will be serious Hell to pay. The SPX is at 4368 as this is typed at munchtime on Friday.

The bears need weaker utilities or they got buptkis. Bears need UTIL below 915.40 which will create stock market weakness, then UTIL 908.29 will create big trouble. Interestingly, the 908.29 is meaningless in a few hours and will be replaced with 914.39. There it is. Watch UTIL 914-916 as a critical line in the sand through next Friday.

UTIL is above creating the market joy today. UTIL must end today above 914-916. If not, you will know that next week will be trouble. Bears also need lower copper.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program gains +2% and the actual trading gains about +4%. On the year thus far with about 2 months in the bag, the SPX benchmark is down -9%, the Keybot the Quant program is up a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +5%. Keybot exits SDS and enters QLD remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's.

Bull market rallies within bear market cycles are known to have wicked upside and take off like rockets, like the last couple days. Watch the utilities.  UTIL is at 932. If utes turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be in play. The beat goes on.

2/27/22; 7:00 PM EST =
2/25/22; 10:45 AM EST = -2; signal line is -14; go long 4332; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -9.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +1.2%)(Actual results this trade = +3.7%; Actual results for 2022 = +4.6%)
2/25/22; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains short
2/25/22; 9:37 AM EST = -2; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains short
2/25/22; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -14
2/23/22; 2:17 PM EST = -34; signal line is -14
2/23/22; 1:51 PM EST = -18; signal line is -13
2/23/22; 1:09 PM EST = -34; signal line is -13
2/23/22; 10:11 AM EST = -18; signal line is -12
2/22/22; 3:59 PM EST = -2; signal line is -11 but algorithm remains short
2/22/22; 3:50 PM EST = -18; signal line is -10
2/22/22; 2:54 PM EST = -2; signal line is -9 but algorithm remains short
2/22/22; 1:56 PM EST = -18; signal line is -8
2/22/22; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is -8 but algorithm remains short
2/22/22; 9:56 AM EST = -2; signal line is -7 but algorithm remains short
2/22/22; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -8
2/20/22; 7:00 PM EST = -18; signal line is -7
2/18/22; 3:46 PM EST = -18; signal line is -5
2/18/22; 3:36 PM EST = -34; signal line is -4
2/18/22; 1:57 PM EST = -18; signal line is -2
2/18/22; 1:01 PM EST = -34; signal line is +0
2/18/22; 11:44 AM EST = -18; signal line is +3
2/18/22; 10:04 AM EST = -2; signal line is +5
2/17/22; 3:31 PM EST = -18; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 3:15 PM EST = -34; signal line is +7
2/17/22; 3:09 PM EST = -18; signal line is +8
2/17/22; 1:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is +8
2/17/22; 1:05 PM EST = +12; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
2/17/22; 12:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 12:22 PM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
2/17/22; 10:59 AM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:29 AM EST = -20; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:19 AM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:05 AM EST = -20; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 9:55 AM EST = -4; signal line is +7; go short 4420; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -7.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +0.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short short yesterday at SPX 4420. Utilities and banks create market ugliness. US markets are closed on Monday for President's Day. Stocks are usually higher the 2 days ahead of a long 3-day holiday weekend, but not yesterday. There is still a lot of chop suey going on slicing bulls and bears alike. The algo goes crazy yesterday spitting out 14 numbers including the flip to the short side.

Bears need to push UTIL back below 914 (now at 915) which will usher in immediate weakness. If UTIL remains above 914 floating higher, that is a tell that a relief rally is likely occurring and may run a couple-few days. If UTIL falls through 914, serious trouble is on tap, and then if the day ends with UTIL below 908.29 (which will be an important number next week), there will be Hell to pay next week.

The SPX fell through the 4394 cliff-edge yesterday ushering in bigtime weakness. SPX 4394 and lower forecasts a bear market that will last a few months if not year or two. Price is at 4380 to begin Friday trading and S&P futures are up +30. The top priority for bulls is to regain SPX 4394. If so, the stock market can be salvaged. If not, carnage will follow.

Watch the banks. XLF 39.47 is the bull/bear line in the sand. Price is at 39.23 in the bear camp.

Bears win if XLF remains below 39.47 and SPX below 4394 while pushing UTIL below 914 and preferably below 908 by the closing bell to start real trouble.

Bulls win if UTIL remains above 914 moving higher and if they can flip XLF 39.47 and SPX 4394 into their camp. Bulls need both of these parameters; one is not good enough.

On the last trade, that ran for only 2 days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading loses a couple percent. Keybot the Quant remains flat on the year while the benchmark S&&P 500 is down more than -7%. Keybot exits SSO with the loss and enters SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's. If the flip would have occurred on Wednesday afternoon, the robot would have probably went into single 1x ETF mode for 30 days but it did not. It will be interesting to see if a whipsaw occurs today.

2/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
2/17/22; 3:31 PM EST = -18; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 3:15 PM EST = -34; signal line is +7
2/17/22; 3:09 PM EST = -18; signal line is +8
2/17/22; 1:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is +8
2/17/22; 1:05 PM EST = +12; signal line is +7 but algorithm remains short
2/17/22; 12:44 PM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 12:22 PM EST = +12; signal line is +6 but algorithm remains short
2/17/22; 10:59 AM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:29 AM EST = -20; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:19 AM EST = -4; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 10:05 AM EST = -20; signal line is +6
2/17/22; 9:55 AM EST = -4; signal line is +7; go short 4420; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -7.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.9%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -0.8%)(Actual results this trade = -1.8%; Actual results for 2022 = +0.9%)
2/17/22; 9:36 AM EST = -4; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
2/17/22; 9:00 AM EST = +10; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains long
2/16/22; 3:59 PM EST = +10; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long
2/16/22; 3:21 PM EST = +26; signal line is +11
2/16/22; 3:09 PM EST = +12; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains long
2/16/22; 9:58 PM EST = -4; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 3:56 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 3:40 PM EST = -4; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 2:11 PM EST = +10; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 1:27 PM EST = +26; signal line is +21
2/15/22; 12:21 PM EST = +12; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 11:19 AM EST = +26; signal line is +24
2/15/22; 10:47 AM EST = +42; signal line is +25
2/15/22; 9:55 AM EST = +28; signal line is +25
2/15/22; 9:43 AM EST = +42; signal line is +27; go long 4461; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -6.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2022 = +2.7%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG - CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips long today at SPX 4461 but the algorithm is already champing at the bit to flip back to the short side. The stock market is erratic and unstable wanting to take a peek at the FOMC Minutes tomorrow afternoon.

Parameters are going off in all directions. Utilities fail today with UTIL collapsing through the 919 palindrome and 914. This failure should usher in a bloodbath but perhaps markets are holding up waiting on insight into the Federal Reserve tomorrow. If UTIL remains under 914 tomorrow, a big drop in the stock market would be expected.

Another battle is NYA at the bull/bear line in the sand at 16717. NYA dances above and below throwing the stock market around like a rag doll, er rag mop.

The bulls are in control but the bears are ready to flip the model back to the short side. Bulls need stronger utes and chips. Bulls need to pump UTIL above 914 immediately then above 919, and also push SOX above 3573. It would not take much effort.

Bears need to keep UTIL under 914 which should usher in extreme ugliness. Bears need NYA below 16717 to prove they got game.

The quant wants to flip short now but the parameters are not fully latched. If the SPX  drops below 4429 on Wednesday, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Utes, chips and the NYA index are controlling stock market direction currently. The chips will tell you a lot in the premarket tomorrow morning.

On the last trade, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading gains about +4%. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark is down -6.4%. The Keybot the Quant program is dead flat this year and the actual trading is now in the green up about +3% in 2022 thus far. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO remaining in the 2x ETF's.

2/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
2/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
2/15/22; 3:56 PM EST = +10; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 3:40 PM EST = -4; signal line is +16 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 2:11 PM EST = +10; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 1:27 PM EST = +26; signal line is +21
2/15/22; 12:21 PM EST = +12; signal line is +22 but algorithm remains long
2/15/22; 11:19 AM EST = +26; signal line is +24
2/15/22; 10:47 AM EST = +42; signal line is +25
2/15/22; 9:55 AM EST = +28; signal line is +25
2/15/22; 9:43 AM EST = +42; signal line is +27; go long 4461; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -6.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +0.1%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2022 = +2.7%)
2/15/22; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +29
2/14/22; 3:29 PM EST = +12; signal line is +30
2/14/22; 2:56 PM EST = -2; signal line is +33
2/14/22; 2:46 PM EST = -18; signal line is +36
2/14/22; 2:07 PM EST = -34; signal line is +39
2/14/22; 1:53 PM EST = -18; signal line is +43
2/14/22; 1:50 PM EST = -4; signal line is +47
2/14/22; 12:45 PM EST = +12; signal line is +50
2/14/22; 11:21 AM EST = -4; signal line is +51
2/14/22; 10:55 AM EST = -18; signal line is +54
2/14/22; 10:44 AM EST = -2; signal line is +57
2/14/22; 10:37 AM EST = +14; signal line is +58
2/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +60
2/11/22; 2:30 PM EST = +28; signal line is +60
2/11/22; 2:22 PM EST = +42; signal line is +60
2/11/22; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +60
2/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +60
2/10/22; 1:21 PM EST = +42; signal line is +60
2/10/22; 1:05 PM EST = +58; signal line is +60
2/10/22; 12:53 PM EST = +42; signal line is +59
2/10/22; 10:56 AM EST = +58; signal line is +59
2/10/22; 10:44 AM EST = +72; signal line is +58 but algorithm remains short
2/10/22; 10:20 AM EST = +58; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains short
2/10/22; 10:08 AM EST = +72; signal line is +55 but algorithm remains short
2/10/22; 10:07 AM EST = +58; signal line is +54 but algorithm remains short
2/10/22; 9:36 AM EST = +42; signal line is +53; go short 4542; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -4.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = -1.7%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2022 = -1.2%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains on the short side after a wild, wild start to the week with the algo printing 11 numbers on Valentine's Day. Bulls and bears are battling for stock market control. Late Monday, the bulls take the upper hand but still need another 18 points to overcome the signal line.

Four major failures occurred yesterday but three recovered. Utilities are playing a key role. UTIL 918.63 and UTIL 914 failed. XLF 39.49 failed. SPX 4394 failed.

If UTIL regains 918.63 today, the algo may flip back to the long side.

Bears need any of the other 3 parameters to fail, UTIL 914, XLF 39.49 or SPX 4394, which would usher in immediate weakness. If all 3 fail, a crash is on the table. If UTIL 914 fails, a major leg lower will occur for the stock market in quick order.

In real-time, 5 hours before the opening bell in the states, S&P futures are popping over +50 points on news that Russia pulls troops back from the Ukraine border. Futures will probably drop if Putin coughs then rally if he grins. It is silliness. Watch the parameters above if you want to know the stock market direction ahead.

Interestingly, with UTIL 918.63, if the bulls take it, the quant will likely not flip long immediately, instead, Keybot may require a jog move where UTIL then has to fall back below 918.63, and then, when it would pop back above 918.63 the second time, that is when it would likely influence Keybot the Quant to flip long. What does that mean in English?

If UTIL pops above 918.63 for a few minutes or half hour, then falls back below for a few minutes or half hour, then rises back above 918.63 again, and remains above moving higher, and the SPX is above 4426 (starting at 4402), Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

2/20/22; 7:00 PM EST =
2/17/22; 9:00 AM EST =
2/14/22; 3:29 PM EST = +12; signal line is +30
2/14/22; 2:56 PM EST = -2; signal line is +33
2/14/22; 2:46 PM EST = -18; signal line is +36
2/14/22; 2:07 PM EST = -34; signal line is +39
2/14/22; 1:53 PM EST = -18; signal line is +43
2/14/22; 1:50 PM EST = -4; signal line is +47
2/14/22; 12:45 PM EST = +12; signal line is +50
2/14/22; 11:21 AM EST = -4; signal line is +51
2/14/22; 10:55 AM EST = -18; signal line is +54
2/14/22; 10:44 AM EST = -2; signal line is +57
2/14/22; 10:37 AM EST = +14; signal line is +58
2/13/22; 7:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +60
2/11/22; 2:30 PM EST = +28; signal line is +60
2/11/22; 2:22 PM EST = +42; signal line is +60
2/11/22; 1:45 PM EST = +28; signal line is +60
2/11/22; 10:00 AM EST = +42; signal line is +60
2/10/22; 1:21 PM EST = +42; signal line is +60

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the short side as the chips, retail stocks and volatility give up the ghost. Chips failed at 1 PM-ish and the rout was on. The SPX tumbled over 100 points but closes down 83 points today, Thursday. The bears are in charge with the algo number 18 points below the signal line.

Bulls need VIX below 20.58 and/or SOX above 3622 and the upside in the stock market will resume and dip-buyers will be rewarded. If you are a dip-buyer with your chest puffed-out, and these 2 parameters do not turn bullish, you are about to get your head handed to you on a platter.

Bears need to keep volatility and chips in their camp while at the same time sending NYA below 16707, XLF below 39.50, UTIL below 916 and/or the SPX below 4403. The NYA and SPX levels, if they fail, signal long-term bear markets ahead (many months or a year or two, or more, of stock market misery). SPX 4403 is the cliff-edge and if it fails a major stock market crash is on the table. It is only one hundo points lower.

Utilities are key going forward and will signal a potential stock market crash. UTIL is at 924.  If UTIL 916 fails tomorrow, you will see the US stock market turn extremely ugly. If UTIL then fails at the 911 level, you will need to call 911, because the SPX will dump 30 to 50 handles in quick order. In general, if UTIL loses the 900-918 support range at anytime over the next month, a major US stock market crash is on the table. This is fun stuff. It is even more interesting since next week the 916 no longer matters but it is replaced by 919. Thus, bulls must close the week out at 4 PM EST tomorrow with UTIL above 919. If UTIL ends tomorrow below 919, it is lights out for the stock market next week. If you do not heed the warning signals, you will be wiped out. There's Winners and Losers everyday in the big city.

Bulls cheer for stronger chips and retail stocks and weaker volatility. Bears cheer for weaker banks, utilities, NYA index and SPX index which will create market carnage. The battle lines are drawn. Which side are you on? Are you a prophet or a fool?

2/13/22; 7:00 PM EST =
2/11/22; 10:00 AM EST =
2/10/22; 1:21 PM EST = +42; signal line is +60
2/10/22; 1:05 PM EST = +58; signal line is +60
2/10/22; 12:53 PM EST = +42; signal line is +59
2/10/22; 10:56 AM EST = +58; signal line is +59