STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 8 points above the signal line.  Last week was a lot of stock market drama but the robot idled through the week unimpressed only printing the two prescheduled numbers.

US markets are closed tomorrow, Monday, 9/1/25, for the Labor Day holiday, the unofficial end to summertime fun. The quant continues tracking commodities, chips and banks as the three key metrics currently dictating stock market direction. Commodities pump higher over the last couple weeks that will lead to ongoing high prices at the supermarket.

Bears need either GTX below 3770, SOX (chips) below 5555, and/or XLF (banksters) below 52.35 to create stock market negativity.  Commodities and semiconductors need to drop about -2% each and banks need to drop about -3% to help the bears.

Bulls need stronger copper and must push the red metal about +4% higher to maintain the stock market joy a formidable task since Doctor Copper is lying on a gurney in the emergency room.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number during this holiday-shortened week on Friday morning. Watch the chips and commodities like a hawk since they will tell you the fate of stocks ahead. Remember, chips failed last Wednesday around 11 AM EST, but quickly recovered. That was the first shot across the bow. Happy Labor Day. The human robots with mundane lives are always Working for the Weekend a la Loverboy.

9/7/25; 7:00 PM EST =
9/5/25; 9:00 AM EST =
8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +36
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is on the long side since the Powell speech on Friday but the algo number is only 8 measly points above the signal line. Chips, banks and commodities are driving the stock market these days. Doctor Copper is lying in a coffin but traders do not care since they are too busy buying stocks.

The bulls are in control and it will be interesting to see if more record highs are ahead for the SPX.

The bears need SOX below 5520, now at 5754, to create market negativity (about a -4% drop; semiconductors failed last week but if you blinked you missed it; the buy the dip crowd brought price quickly higher again).

The bears need XLF below 52.00, now at 53.57, to create negativity (about a -3% drop). The bears need GTX below 3757, now at 3818, to create negativity (a -1.6% drop). Thus, commodities may likely be the metric that reverses the bullish joy and reintroduces stock market selling pressure since it is the easiest metric to turn for the bears.

The bulls are on easy street with bears needing a -1.6% drop in commodities, and/or a -3% drop in the banksters, and/or a -4% drop in semiconductors, to retake control. Choose your poison. Poison Heart with Joey's haunting voice.

Keybot prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning, both one-half hour after the opening bells for the cash trade. The month of August trading ends on Friday (EOM) and September trading begins Tuesday, 9/2/25, after the Labor Day holiday, 9/1/25, when US markets will be closed.

8/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
8/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/26/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +36
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull camp at 10 AM EST Friday morning at 6448 as Pope Powell brought the tablets down from On High and told everyone a rate cut is locked-in for 9/17/25. The crowd goes wild celebrating the crony capitalism system pumping stocks higher. The SPX was up over one hundo points intraday on the euphoria.

Interestingly, despite the rampant euphoric bull party, the S&P 500 did not print a new all-time high. The all-time record high remains at 6481.34 on 8/15/25, the prior Friday; traders must be happy for the weekend on Friday's. The all-time closing high remains at 6468.54 on 8/14/25. The SPX could have easily poked out a new record high and new record closing high but did not. Monday will be interesting.

The quant was champing at the bit to go long and the second Powell opened his pie hole it was off to the races. As previously explained, chips, banks and commodities are the three metrics most impacting stock market direction  currently. The stick-save with the chips and commodities this week paved the way for Powell to flap his dovish wings.

On the last trade that ran for about 3 weeks, the quant program and actual trading each lose a couple percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is up about +10%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +21% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +23% outperforming the benchmark by 2x. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

Since the banksters are running to the moon, the bears likely need weaker chips and/or commodities to wrestle back the market football. The algo number is only 9 points above the signal line. The end of August trading (EOM) is next Friday.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/22/25; 10:02 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35; go long 6448 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +9.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +21.1%)(Actual results this trade = -2.4%; Actual results for 2025 = +23.4%)
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/15/25; 10:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 1:43 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/11/25; 12:31 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/11/25; 11:27 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +41
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 2:39 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
8/8/25; 10:59 AM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 10:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
8/8/25; 10:06 AM EST = +44; signal line is +45
8/7/25; 11:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +46
8/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +47
8/6/25; 3:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 12:28 PM EST = +44; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +49
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50
8/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +50
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51
8/1/25; 9:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +53
8/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +54
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +55
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short but is champing at the bit to go long after a choppy day. The algo number is 9 points above the signal line so the quant wants to go long but cannot since the internal parameters did not fully latch. If the SPX rallies above 6408 moving higher tomorrow, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long.

If you are bullish, you do not want a gap-up day. Instead, a slow steady move higher would be a better set-up for the quant to flip long. If a gap-up move occurs, it may trigger a timer that will delay the turn to the long side by about 90 minutes.

The surprise today was the failure of the semiconductors; the 'chips were down' literally and figuratively. Instead of the ongoing battle between the commodes and the banksters, today was a battle between the commodes and chips. The SOX fell below 5516 that is major trouble for the stock market as per the quant, and you saw what happened.

GTX, commodities, rallied at first but then fell on their sword below 3756 also in that 10:49 to 10:52 AM time. Stocks were toast but the invisible hand came in at 11:15 AM-ish to save the day pulling both parameters back into the bull camp sending equities higher off the lows.

Bears need SOX under 5516, GTX under 3756 and/or XLF below 52.87. The banksters remain elevated and chips recovered far off the 5516 line in the sand, so commodities will be the most important parameter to the stock market tomorrow. Bears desperately need one of the three parameters to fail and GTX is likely their best shot. Hit Me With Your Best Shot. Pat knew how to shake her assets.

The bulls win with SPX 6408 and higher so watch S&P futures for a potential +12 point rally overnight. The bears win with weaker commodities, or semiconductors, or banks, any one will do, and if 2 or all 3 turn negative, stocks will collapse.

Thursday should be an interesting day ahead of Chairman Powell's speech on Friday morning from Jackson Hole. Jackson should be playing a gig for the banksters in Jackson Hole since the markets may be Running on Empty. Back-up singer Rosemary Butler is a killer voice.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/20/25; 11:17 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 11:13 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +35
8/20/25; 10:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/20/25; 10:28 AM EST = +44; signal line is +35 but algorithm remains short
8/20/25; 10:18 AM EST = +28; signal line is +34
8/20/25; 9:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +34 but algorithm remains short
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 6481.34 on Friday, 8/15/25, and a new all-time closing high at 6468.54 on Thursday, 8/14/25. The algo number, however, is only 4 points below the signal line which is not much.

Copper and commodities are creating a pall over the stock market and the record high joy. Doctor Copper continues lying on a gurney in the emergency room. The battle for stock market control is commodities versus banks; GTX vs XLF, respectively.

Commodities are creating stock market negativity so the bulls need to push GTX above 3756 and the sadness will turn into upside joy and a rally in equities. If GTX rises above 3756 trending higher, and the SPX moves above 6481, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. The SPX will begin the new week of trading from 6450.

Banks are keeping the stock market buoyant and at the record highs so the bears need to pull XLF below 51.72 to get equities rolling downhill and create market mayhem and pain.

It remains strange times with the sideways SPX price action unwilling to yet commit lower or higher. Keybot prints one prescheduled number this week on Tuesday morning before the opening bell. Watch the commodities vs banks battle; one of them will flinch this week and tell you the market direction forward. The bulls want to Stay at the record top Just a Little Bit Longer a la Jackson and the gang.

8/24/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/19/25; 9:00 AM EST =
8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +34
8/15/25; 10:01 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +35
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short despite the moonshot in equities today. The SPX gains 72 points today, 8/12/25, for a new all-time record high at 6446.55 and new all-time closing high at 6445.76. Price parks itself at the 6446 palindrome.

The bazaar behavior continues. Commodities fail out of the gate today but stocks gap higher. Bulls need stronger commodities if they want to retake control of the stock market. Commodities ruined the stock market party today puking on the bull's shoes. Banks ran higher supporting the bull case pushing indexes to record highs.

Stock market direction is controlled by the banksters and commodities. Tomorrow will be a cage match since they are in opposite camps. Two enter but only one will exit and take equities in that direction. GTX is below the 3756.90 bull/bear line in the sand creating negativity. Bulls need GTX back above 3756.90 and the rally party will drive strongly higher.

Bears need XLF below the 51.70 line in the sand to create market mayhem.

Simplifying, bulls need GTX above 3757 and the SPX above 6447 for Keybot the Quant to likely flip long. Bears simply need weaker banks and XLF to fall below 51.70 that will cause stocks to fall. The weirdness continues. Strange Days.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/12/25; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +37
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market crazy ride continues. The bulls had one arm of Miss Commodities and the bears had the other arm and they spent the day dragging her from one camp, to the other, then back again, and back, and back, and by the time the fight was over, the stock market is basically where it started. The struggle was like a fight between Batman and the Penguin. Bam! Pow! Thwack! Bonk! 

It appears that traders want to wait for tomorrow morning when inflation will lift its skirt and reveal what is underneath. If inflation comes in tame below expectations, the rate cut for September will look like a go and stocks may rally. If inflation meets expectations or one tick above, that would be expected and keep the door open to rate cuts but it will not tell a lot. If tariffs start to bite harder, and the inflation numbers beat by two or more ticks and the data appear to be running higher going forward, that puts the September rate cut into question and would likely create a sour mood for equities.

Keybot the Quant, however, is a robot and only sees 1's and 0's. Same-o set-up as last evening. The algo is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 6 points above the signal line. If the SPX moves above 6407 tomorrow going higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why they are never invited to parties, S&P futures will need to rally +34 points overnight (currently negative down -3).

Bears need GTX below 3757.10 to close the door on the bull's hopes. It is only pennies away and this metric was the cause of all of today's commotion. Commodities commotion. Little Eva and the Loco-motion. A fave at all high school dances across America during the 1960's and 1970's and then the song was redone in recent years by other artists.

Bears need XLF below 51.66 only pennies away. Either parameter turning bearish will guarantee the bear path going forward. If both fail, that will hint that stocks are in the process of falling apart. Commodities and banks are controlling stock market direction currently.

Thus, if bullish, you want SPX 6407 to wave the banner of victory going forward. If bearish, you want to see GTX lose 3757 and/or XLF lose 51.66 and if both fail, you will be throwing confetti as screens turn blood red. The Beat Goes On.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/11/25; 2:01 PM EST = +44; signal line is +38 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 1:43 PM EST = +30; signal line is +38
8/11/25; 12:31 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 11:55 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/11/25; 11:27 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/11/25; 10:47 AM EST = +30; signal line is +41
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short after a wild Friday. The robot is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 2 points above the signal line but the internal parameters would not fully latch to permit the move. The algorithm was one single human hair from flipping long at 2 PM EST-ish on Friday but the internal parameters held it back.

That was Twilight Zone behavior for the quant since these same mathematical machinations played out 12 years ago to the day. It is bazaar. Back in 2013, the quant did go long a few days later, but then whipsawed short again, and lost about -4% over a couple-week period. That has no bearing on what will happen now but it is interesting to see the same odd mathematical behavior on Friday occurred with the model 12 years later to the day.

The bulls are in great shape to take back stock market control. If the SPX moves above 6395 moving higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. This equates to a +6 point rise in S&P futures that will be on line this evening. That will tell you right away if the bulls got game.

The bulls do not want a gap-up move higher in the SPX. This would likely trigger the gap timer and cause the robot to wait about 90 minutes before allowing it to go long, and sometimes stocks end up falling on their sword.

The financials and commodities are the two main market metrics that are controlling direction currently; banks and goods. Bears need XLF below 51.64 (now at 51.85) and/or GTX below 3756.90 (now at 3758.28). You can see it is a game of pennies. If either metric turns negative, the bears are back in the game and will press the downside in equities.

Thus, bulls win with the SPX above 6395 and marching slowly and methodically higher. Bears win if XLF 51.64 or GTX 3756.90 fail.

Keybot the Quant prints one prescheduled number this week on Friday morning shortly after the opening bell. S&P futures this evening will probably tell you the story for tomorrow.

8/17/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/15/25; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +42 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +43 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 2:39 PM EST = +30; signal line is +43
8/8/25; 10:59 AM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains short
8/8/25; 10:15 AM EST = +30; signal line is +44
8/8/25; 10:06 AM EST = +44; signal line is +45
8/7/25; 11:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +46
8/6/25; 3:59 PM EST = +44; signal line is +47
8/6/25; 3:06 PM EST = +30; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 12:28 PM EST = +44; signal line is +48
8/5/25; 10:29 AM EST = +28; signal line is +49
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls come to play on Monday almost regaining the Friday loss. Retail stocks and banks fold like a cheap suit for the bears and run back into the bull camp creating the upside joy in equities. The algo number is now only 6 points below the signal line.

Same dealio tomorrow. Watch the XRT 78.15 and XLF 51.65 lines in the sand. Both are bullish creating stock market lift. Stocks will weaken if either fails back into the bear camp.

Commodities were teasing failure today while no one was looking but they remain in the bull camp. Watch GTX 3760 now at 3786. Equities will weaken if GTX loses 3760 heading lower.

It is a slow data weak but perhaps it will be an erratic week considering the start. The dip buyers were tripping over each other to buy any stock with a heartbeat. They could not sleep all weekend because they wanted to put their entire paycheck to work in the tech and meme stocks. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are the only three metrics that matter right now.

One way the bulls may wrestle back control is if any of the 3 parameters above dance above and below their lines in the sand a couple times. This behavior would jog the quant algo number closer to the signal line to where it may pop above and set-up a move back to the long side. For now, the bears still have the ball. Tomorrow will be interesting. Jethro Tull prepares everyone for the bull/bear battle. Locomotive Breath. No way to slow down.

8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/25; 10:19 AM EST = +44; signal line is +50
8/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +50
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the bears hitting cruise control with the algo number 39 points below the signal line. Retail stocks and banks both failed on Friday flushing the stock market down the toilet, but all of you knew that ahead of time, and what to watch.

Watch the XRT 78.03 and XLF 51.67 lines in the sand. The bulls have zero hope for stocks if both remain in the bear camp. If 1 of the 2 turn bullish, it shows that the bulls are fighting back and making a little bit of progress but they need both to turn bullish to stage a real comeback.

Copper creates a pall on commodities and bears need GTX to drop below 3755 to create more stock market negativity. A couple other metrics you can watch that are starting to take on importance are SOX 5383 and NYA 19675. Both would need to drop about -2.5% to -3.0% to hit the lines in the sand and trigger more stock market negativity.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The bears are running the show. Retail stocks, banks and commodities are controlling stock market direction currently. Bears will need more help from commodities, semiconductors and the NYA index but if these parameters remain bullish, the downside in equities will fizzle. The girls playing Johnny B Goode. Excellent.

8/10/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +51
8/1/25; 9:37 AM EST = +12; signal line is +53
8/1/25; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +54
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +55
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short as the Thursday session starts out with bullish euphoria and a new all-time record high at 6427.02, followed by stocks falling on their sword reversing one hundo points intraday and then ending at 6339.

Today is end of month and August trading begins tomorrow. The US Monthly Jobs Report is released tomorrow morning and may send stocks into a tizzy.

Dr Copper is puking all over the hospital hallway and is placed on a gurney and wheeled into the emergency room. Medic! Stat! The quant is tracking retail stocks and banks as the two most important parameters impacting stock market direction and both retreated today coming closer to their bull/bear lines in the sand.

If XRT loses 78.03 (give or take a few pennies because the quant is constantly recalculating), it is lights-out for stocks (a drop of -0.6%). If XLF loses 51.72, it is lights-out for stocks (a drop of -1.2%). Banks would likely be more impacted by jobs data than retail stocks. If both fail into the bear camp, stocks will be falling like rocks. If both remain in the bull camp, equities will stagger sideways like the drunks in Times Square on Saturday night. Outside its another yellow moon, the trains are full of all those Brooklyn girls, all of my dreams fall like rain, always on a downtown train. Tom Waits masterpiece Downtown Train sung by Patty.

So the stage is set. The retail stocks and banks will tell you if the downside has legs or if it is a pig in a poke.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +56
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday afternoon straight-up at 3 PM EST at SPX 6348. The algo number is 12 points below the signal line. The crash in copper comes out of left field (due to King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War) and then the Fed decision created soggy stocks triggering the robot to go short.

Copper needs to recover bigtime to right the ship but that does not appear to be on the docket going forward. S&P futures are up over +60 points on happy tech earnings last evening but copper will likely remain in the cellar.

Retail stocks and banks will tell you if the move lower has legs. If the XRT loses -1.6% and/or the XLF loses -2.0%, stocks will be in a lot of trouble. If these two parameters remain bullish, stocks will likely stutter sideways waiting on more information.

On the last trade, that ran for 2 months, the quant program gains a huge +7% ditto the actual trading. The entire gain for the S&P 500 this year (+8%) basically occurred over the last 2 months. For the year, the Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +23% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a huge +26% three times the gain in the SPX this year thus far. Keybot exited SPY and entered SDS back into the 2x ETF's since the whipsaw timer from 6/2/25 has expired.

As always, watch for a potential whipsaw, and futures are up big, but the copper crash may prevent the quant from flipping back to the long side. There are probably more surprises ahead this week but for now, Keybot the Quant is on the short side. The copper crash yesterday was more important than the ongoing tariff drama and the Fed.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/25; 3:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56; go short 6348 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +7.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +22.7%)(Actual results this trade = +7.0%; Actual results for 2025 = +25.8%)
7/30/25; 2:18 PM EST = +44; signal line is +56 but algorithm remains long
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +56
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +55
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +54
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +52
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +57; signal line is +51
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +49
6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47
6/15/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +46
6/13/25; 3:09 PM EST = +60; signal line is +45
6/13/25; 2:38 PM EST = +44; signal line is +44 but algorithm remains long
6/13/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +44
6/8/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +43
6/6/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +41
6/4/25; 3:59 PM EST = +60; signal line is +40
6/4/25; 3:14 PM EST = +46; signal line is +39
6/4/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 3:15 PM EST = +46; signal line is +38
6/3/25; 9:36 AM EST = +60; signal line is +37
6/2/25; 3:06 PM EST = +46; signal line is +36
6/2/25; 2:51 PM EST = +60; signal line is +35
6/2/25; 2:23 PM EST = +46; signal line is +35; go long 5925 (Benchmark SPX for 2025 = +0.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.1%; Keybot algo for 2025 = +15.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.2%; Actual results for 2025 = +18.8%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls squeeze-out more juice from the stock market with the algo number now 4 points above the signal line. That is nothing to write home about but the bears cannot make any headway lower. The Fed meeting and rate decision tomorrow, and more data, and the Jobs Report, and tariff deadline will all have their day. The strong, the weak, will all have their day. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today?

The bears have their work cut out for them even though the algo number and signal line are lining-out together. Pay attention to the banks and retail stocks. Bears will win the day if either XLF loses -2.2% and/or if XRT loses -2.5%. If either turn bearish, the imminent turn to the short side will be on the table.

Chairman Powell is picking-up his white dove suit at the cleaners. It had a jelly stain on the left wing from last month's free buffet. A rate cut is not expected so Powell's words will matter. Does he appease Trumpski cooing dovishly and guaranteeing a cut in September in about 6 weeks, or, will he stay the course and keep the rate cut up in the air waiting on more data? There is now about a 65% chance of a rate cut occurring in September. King Donnie is ready to tweet like an adolescent child as soon as the FOMC decision occurs.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +56
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the hazy, lazy summer continues. The quant did not print any numbers last week just like two weeks before that is extremely odd and rare behavior. Something must be going on under the surface. The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction but the algo number is only one measly point above the signal line.

Nonetheless, the stock market parameters remain bullish across the board. The crack will probably occur in banks, commodities, and/or copper, that the quant considers the most important metrics currently.

XLF needs to fall about -2.7% to help the bears that is still a tall ask. Therefore, thinking out loud and knowing how the algorithm operates reading the 1's and 0's, the pre-scheduled numbers may play a critical role this week. 

Today, the stock market prints a new all-time record high at 6401.07 and new all-time closing high at 6389.77. Where's the SPX 6.4K hats? 

The bulls maintain elevated stocks with daily Trump tariff happy talk (the orange head announced the EU deal two hours before the Sunday futures opened on the East Coast last night), inflation data, and now this epic week with earnings from big tech companies, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference and rate decision (no cut expected), EOM, Con Con tomorrow and the Monthly Jobs Report on Friday along with a King Donnie tariff deadline to end the week.

The stock market is spinning in place, like Natalie was known for when she performed. Wonder. Great guitar work by Jenny.

8/3/25; 7:00 PM EST =
8/1/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/29/25; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the stock market remains goosed by the ongoing hype that interest rate cuts will occur at any time. King Donnie wants the rate cuts because he knows prices are going to move higher from here due to his tariffs. The quant is not very active for the last couple weeks and the bulls remain in control of the stock market but only by one single measly point.

Nonetheless, the market metrics have taken a ride to Orgiville and do not want to leave.  The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6315.61 on 7/18/25 and the all-time closing high is on Thursday, 7/17/25, at 6297.36.

The quant is tracking retail stocks, banks and commodities as the key metrics controlling stock market direction currently. It will be interesting to see how it cracks whenever that occurs. XRT would need to lose -3.2%, and/or XLF lose -2.7%, and/or GTX lose -2.5%, to position the quant to go short. Any 1 of the 3 would work but you can see the bulls are in comfortable control.

Keybot the Quant does not print any pre-scheduled numbers this week. The boring price action should give way to excitement at some point ahead. For now, it is Clams Casino on a Sunday night, having a good time.

7/27/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +56
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +55
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +54
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long in a sleepy summer mode. The robot is idling along for over a week without printing any numbers. The bulls remain in control of the stock market but the banks, retail stocks and commodities are in play and the algo number is only 4 points from the signal line.

The SPX prints a new all-time high at 6302.04 yesterday but the all-time closing high at 6280.46 from 7/10/25 remains in place.

Banks are key since earnings are released this week. The quant identifies XLF 51.07 as the bull/bear line in the sand. In the pre-market right now, less than 5 hours before the opening bell on Wall Street, XLF is at 51.666. If XLF loses the 51.07 level, and the SPX is below 6242 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short.

The quant prints two pre-scheduled numbers this week one before the opening bell on Friday morning and one after the open. Watch the banks.

7/20/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/18/25; 10:00 AM EST =
7/18/25; 9:00 AM EST =
7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +53
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the bulls remain in full control of the stock market. The stock market is one big party just like the dotcom bubble in 1999/2000. The quant is idling along on the long side with the algo number only a measly 5 points above the signal line.

Weakness in commodities and utilities may help the bears but each sector that weakens is immediately boosted to keep the Wall Street party going. Banks took off higher. Copper jumped higher. Volatility collapses. It is a bull's dream.

The quant does not print any prescheduled numbers this week. Up, Up and Away. Oh we can fly in my beautiful balloon. At least until it pops.

7/13/25; 7:00 PM EST =
7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +52
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +52
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +57; signal line is +51
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market with the SPX printing a new all-time record high at 6187.68 and new all-time closing high at 6173.07. Some of the upside is due to window dressing for the quarter-end and end of the first half of 2025. Financial managers want to show that they own the hot stocks on the client statements so they buy them in the final days creating uplift in the stock market. The algo number is only a measly 7 points above the signal line so the bulls are in charge but walking a tightrope.

The robot remains most interested in commodities and utilities as the main drivers of stock market direction currently. Both are creating bullishness for stocks with prices above the GTX 3712 and UTIL 1020 bull/bear lines in the sand. If either fails, and the SPX drops below 6132 trending lower, the quant will likely flip short. If UTIL 1009 then fails, it will be lights-out for stocks going forward.

The robot also continues tracking banks, copper and volatility as the next tier of parameters impacting stock market direction. Watch VIX 22.69 because if price remains below, the bears got nothing. If VIX moves above 22.69, stocks will fall apart.

The month, quarter and first half of the year ends on Monday so the quant prints a prescheduled number Monday evening. The US Jobs Monthly Report is pulled forward to Thursday due to the Independence Day July 4th holiday on Friday when US markets are closed for fun, frolic and fireworks. The goal is to still have the same number of fingers next week at this time. The Roman Candles are ready to go.

The stock market typically rallies the day or two in front of a 3-day holiday weekend. Also, new money comes into the market the first few days of July as the new quarter and second half of the year begins usually creating buoyancy in stocks. With these erratic and unstable markets, do not have any expectations. King Donnie or Pope Powell may say something sending stocks wildly in one direction or the other.

Watch commodities and utilities closely and keep a hairy eyeball on banks, copper and volatility. This week you will hear a lot of patriotic songs as it should be. America the Beautiful.

7/6/25; 7:00 PM EST = 
7/3/25; 9:00 AM EST =
6/30/25; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +50
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +49

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the robot navigates through another sleepy week. The S&P 500 is teasing new all-time record highs but missed by a hair yesterday. The all-time high is 6147.43 and all-time closing high is 6144.15 both on 2/19/25. Price got up to 6147 yesterday but not above the record high and then closed at 6141 below the record close. Will the newspapers and internet web sites have a headline to exploit all weekend long?

Market metrics remain bullish across the board so the robot is sleepy this week idling along until something crazy will likely occur. The banks are pumped higher by the US government relaxing banking rules. Of course they do; it is crony capitalism filth. Copper launches into the stratosphere. Volatility drops faster than a prom dress.

Commodities launched higher but are now dropping in spectacular fashion. The quant is tracking GTX as the main parameter impacting stock market direction. GTX 3712 is the bull/bear line in the sand. GTX is at 3734 in the bull camp creating buoyancy in the stock market. If GTX fails below 3712 today, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be in play for the quant. If the SPX then loses 6107 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

The second prescheduled number prints this morning shortly after the opening bell. The bulls are in charge but only by 8 measly points. Pay attention to commodities today.

Also, the quant is tracking utilities. Stocks will be in trouble if UTIL loses the 1020 line in the sand and will then likely fail bigtime if UTIL would lose the 1009 level anytime now through next Friday. UTIL begins today at 1042. The stock market is Shiny Happy People laughing but how long will that last? Practice makes perfect.

6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST = +57; signal line is +49
6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market as the daily King Donnie and Fed drama continues and now the US war activity in the Middle East. Traders are programmed to buy war so futures are higher this Monday morning about 5 hours before the US cash open. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 12 points above the signal line which is not much.

Banks, copper and the NYA index are controlling stock market direction currently. All 3 are bullish creating the ongoing daily buoyancy in the stock market. Bears need XLF below 49.93, CPER below 29.65 and/or NYA below 19532. If any 1 of the 3 turn bearish, the imminent turn will be in play, and if the SPX drops below 5953 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

To aid the bears, banks would need to lose -0.9% but XLF is up +0.2% in the pre-market. Copper futures need to drop -2.1% and are down -0.6% in real-time. The NYA index needs to lose -1.7% for the bears to growl. The bulls do not appear worried at all.

VIX above 22.69 and UTIL below 1018 will also create stock market trouble. 

Keybot the Quant prints two prescheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other Friday morning. The stock market remains uber bullish especially with the bombs dropping. Barbara Ann. Or as King Donnie is singing all weekend long, "Bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran."

6/29/25; 7:00 PM EST =
6/27/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/24/25; 10:00 AM EST =
6/22/25; 7:00 PM EST = +60; signal line is +48
6/18/25; 9:00 AM EST = +60; signal line is +47