STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday at SPX 4431 as this year's choppy slop continues. Markets are up, down, down, up. Baby What You Want Me To Do? The bulls are back in charge with the algo number 29 points above the signal line. Chips, copper and retail stocks pump the broad stock market higher. NVDA earnings hype creates another spurt higher for the AI orgy.

Bulls need stronger banks and lower volatility to prove that they got game. VIX 15.37 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is trading in real-time at 15.59 in the bear camp. Despite the overnight euphoria in markets, the VIX is not yet in the bull camp. Watch VIX 15.37 closely because if the bulls cannot push below, they got nothing and the rally in stocks will not have legs instead rolling back over to the downside in a few days. If VIX loses the 15.37 level, the upside rally in stocks will develop into an upside orgy.

Bulls will also create another leg higher in stocks if XLF exceeds 34.17 which is only pennies away. Thus, VIX 15.37 and XLF 34.17 tells you if the bulls can take stocks higher, or not.

Bears need weaker retail stocks, copper and chips. The RTH keeps tagging the 175.34 line in the sand identified by the robot with price at ...... wait for it ....... 175.35 one penny in the bull camp. Obviously, how retail stocks go, so goes the market.

Bears also need CPER below 23.51 (and copper futures are negative so this will likely fail into the bear camp) and SOX below 3575. If 2 of the 3 parameters turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the short side to be back in play, and if the SPX falls below 4396, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

Volatility, banks, retail stocks, copper and chips are the sectors controlling stock market direction currently.

On the last trade that ran for a week, the quant program has a marginal gain and the actual trading generated by the quant loses a smidge because it was in a tech ETF. For the year thus far, the SPX benchmark is up about +15%, the quant program is down -2% and the actual trading is down -3%. Despite the down year so far, the robot continues holding its own against the non-stop whipsaw choppy sloppy action since the end of last year. Keybot exits PSQ and enters QQQ.

VIX below 15.37 would confirm that the upside in stocks is real for a few days forward. RTH below 175.34, along with weaker copper, will hint that the euphoria in stocks may be short-lived. Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart as Joey sang.

8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/23/23; 3:59 PM EST = +14; signal line is -15
8/23/23; 3:33 PM EST = -2; signal line is -16
8/23/23; 1:15 PM EST = +14; signal line is -17
8/23/23; 12:43 PM EST = -2; signal line is -17; go long 4431; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.4%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.1%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -3.0%)
8/23/23; 12:13 PM EST = -2; signal line is -17 but algorithm remains short
8/23/23; 11:57 AM EST = -18; signal line is -17
8/23/23; 11:02 AM EST = -2; signal line is -15 but algorithm remains short
8/23/23; 10:46 AM EST = -18; signal line is -15
8/22/23; 10:28 AM EST = -34; signal line is -13
8/22/23; 10:17 AM EST = -18; signal line is -11
8/22/23; 9:59 AM EST = -34; signal line is -10
8/22/23; 9:36 AM EST = -18; signal line is -9
8/21/23; 10:17 AM EST = -34; signal line is -8
8/21/23; 9:57 AM EST = -18; signal line is -7
8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -6
8/18/23; 3:59 PM EST = -34; signal line is -4
8/18/23; 1:23 PM EST = -18; signal line is -3
8/18/23; 1:03 PM EST = -34; signal line is -2
8/18/23; 11:27 AM EST = -18; signal line is -1
8/17/23; 1:31 PM EST = -34; signal line is +0
8/17/23; 11:05 AM EST = -18; signal line is +1
8/17/23; 10:21 AM EST = -2; signal line is +1
8/16/23; 3:13 PM EST = -18; signal line is +2
8/16/23; 2:23 PM EST = -2; signal line is +3
8/16/23; 2:16 PM EST = -18; signal line is +4
8/16/23; 2:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 1:14 PM EST = -18; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 9:41 AM EST = -2; signal line is +6
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is +6
8/15/23; 3:32 PM EST = -18; signal line is +7
8/15/23; 10:10 AM EST = -2; signal line is +8; go short 4450; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 28 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising but in these markets things can change on a dime. The algo is busy printing 14 numbers Wednesday through Friday.

The failure in the chips ushered in the stock market weakness last week. Banks and retail stocks followed the semi's down the rabbit hole of doom.

Bulls need stronger retail stocks, banks, chips and lower volatility. Bears need a weaker NYA index and weaker commodities.

Bulls need RTH above 175.38, XLF above 34.25, SOX above 3580 and VIX below 15.50. If any one of the four turn bullish, the caution flag will be out. If 2 of the 4 turn bullish, the imminent turn to the long side will be in play, and if the SPX then rallies above 4382 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If 3 flip bullish, the algo will likely immediately flip long.

Bears need NYA below 15563 which will usher-in dramatic downside for US stocks. Bears also need GTX below 3400 which will create further stock market negativity.

Utilities were an early warning side of the stock market trouble as previously forecasted by the Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator web sites. The 2 bull/bear lines in the sand for utes this week are UTIL 959.19 and UTIL 936.00. UTIL price begins the week at the 878 palindrome so it is a tall ask for price to rally 58 points and more but you never know.

Of greater interest, and the reason the utes are discussed, is next week. For the week of 8/28/23, The UTIL 959.19 becomes a worthless number replaced with 914.83 a much easier goal for the bulls to achieve. Thus, if UTIL rallies this week and price is near or above 915 when markets close on Friday, that tells you that a relief rally is likely in progress for US stocks or about to begin.

If UTIL remains sub 9 hundo and lower, especially lower than 878, come Friday, that tells you that the US stock market is in Dire Straits and will perform the Walk of Life to Hades. If UTIL price languishes lower this week, the US stock market is in a crash profile where serious downside and collapse in stocks can occur. Watch the UTIL 915 line in the sand for next week, this week.

The table is set. Will market participants eat happy pasta or sh*t stew? Simply watch RTH 175.17, XLF 34.25 and NYA 15563 to know the direction ahead for stocks.

8/27/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST = -34; signal line is -6
8/18/23; 3:59 PM EST = -34; signal line is -4
8/18/23; 1:23 PM EST = -18; signal line is -3
8/18/23; 1:03 PM EST = -34; signal line is -2
8/18/23; 11:27 AM EST = -18; signal line is -1
8/17/23; 1:31 PM EST = -34; signal line is +0
8/17/23; 11:05 AM EST = -18; signal line is +1
8/17/23; 10:21 AM EST = -2; signal line is +1
8/16/23; 3:13 PM EST = -18; signal line is +2
8/16/23; 2:23 PM EST = -2; signal line is +3
8/16/23; 2:16 PM EST = -18; signal line is +4
8/16/23; 2:00 PM EST = -2; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 1:14 PM EST = -18; signal line is +5
8/16/23; 9:41 AM EST = -2; signal line is +6
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is +6
8/15/23; 3:32 PM EST = -18; signal line is +7

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the short side yesterday at SPX 4450. The year of relentless choppy slop continues. Chips failed early in the session and banks failed late day creating the downside in US stocks. The algo number is 25 points below the signal line so the bears are growling.

Volatility, chips and banks are running the show right now. VIX 15.43 is the bull/bear line in the sand and price is trading in real-time at 16.45 continuing the bearishness. 

Bulls need VIX below 15.43, SOX above 3597 and/or XLF above 34.25 to reverse course in stocks. If 2 of the 3 flip long, consider the imminent turn to the bull side to be back in play.

Bears will create further carnage with weaker commodities specifically sending GTX below 3400.

Bears win with GTX below 3400. Bulls win with VIX below 15.43, SOX above 3597 and/or XLF above 34.25. If status quo remains, the US stock market will chop along flat with a downward bias.

On the last trade that ran for one day, the quant program and actual trading each lose -0.7% stringing several losses in a row due to the choppy sloppy price action. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up +16%. The Keybot the Quant program and actual trading are down almost -3%. Keybot exits DDM and enters PSQ remaining in the single 1x ETF's to reduce risk in the ongoing whipsaw environment. Whip it good.

8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/15/23; 3:32 PM EST = -18; signal line is +7
8/15/23; 10:10 AM EST = -2; signal line is +8; go short 4450; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.7%)
8/15/23; 9:49 AM EST = -2; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains long
8/15/23; 6:10 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
8/15/23; 4:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +8
8/15/23; 4:07 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
8/14/23; 3:18 PM EST = +28; signal line is +8
8/14/23; 10:51 AM EST = +12; signal line is +8; go long 4481; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side yesterday morning at SPX 4481. It is more choppy whipsaw slop. Even Keybot is starting to get chewed-up by the non-stop whipsaw buzzsaw. The bulls are in charge but only by 6 measly points nothing to write home about.

S&P futures are down nearly -30 and the VIX increases to 15.86 creating bearish price action. The VIX line in the sand is now at 15.43 so watch this like a hawk.

Watch chips. Bears will have their way if SOX drops below 3599. The chips turning bullish provided the orgy in stocks during the final minutes of trading yesterday.

If SOX drops below 3599, which may be on tap since futures are down substantively, and if the SPX drops below 4453, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. It is all choppy slop day after day.

On the last trade that only ran for about 10 trading hours, the quant program and the actual trading each lose about a half percent. Keybot deems the flip another whipsaw so the robot will remain in the single 1x ETF's into mid-September to reduce risk due to the choppy whipsaw slop. On the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is up almost +17%. The Keybot the Quant algo program and the actual trading generated by the quant are each down a couple percent on the year. Robots have a difficult time in non-trending markets. Keybot exits SH and enters SPY.

VIX 15.43 and SOX 3599 dictate stock market direction currently.

8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/15/23; 6:10 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
8/15/23; 4:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +8
8/15/23; 4:07 AM EST = +14; signal line is +8
8/14/23; 3:18 PM EST = +28; signal line is +8
8/14/23; 10:51 AM EST = +12; signal line is +8; go long 4481; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.5%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.8%)(Actual results this trade = -0.3%; Actual results for 2023 = -2.0%)
8/14/23; 10:16 AM EST = +12; signal line is +9 but algorithm remains short
8/14/23; 8:02 AM EST = -2; signal line is +9
8/14/23; 3:56 AM EST = +12; signal line is +10 but algorithm remains short
8/14/23; 3:06 AM EST = -2; signal line is +10
8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
8/11/23; 12:03 PM EST = +12; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
8/11/23; 10:56 AM EST = -2; signal line is +12
8/11/23; 10:26 AM EST = +12; signal line is +13
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +14
8/11/23; 4:06 AM EST = -2; signal line is +15
8/11/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +17
8/10/23; 1:57 PM EST = -2; signal line is +18; go short 4461; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.7%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant is short but champing at the bit to go long again. The stock market unpalatable chop suey continues. That's a ten-dollar college word in that sentence. The algo number is 1 point above the signal line since munchtime Friday so the robot wants to flip long but the internal parameters will not yet fully latch to permit the move.

It is all riding on volatility; Uncle Vix. The bull/bear line in the sand that determines the direction of the US stock market ahead is VIX 15.63. Price is at 14.84 creating buoyancy in stocks. Bears need the VIX above 15.63 immediately, otherwise, they got buptkis. Bulls need to keep the VIX below 15.63 to prove that they can stage a relief rally. As volatility goes, so goes the stock market in the opposite direction (SPX and VIX are an inverse correlation over 92% of the time).

If the VIX remains below 15.63, and the SPX rallies on Monday morning above 4476 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

A gap up open is not good for bulls since it may trigger a timer that delays the flip to the long side for about 90 minutes. Bulls need S&P futures to be positive by only a few points, then after the opening bell, the SPX cash index needs to slowly move higher and then at about 12 points higher, the model may flip long. A strong gap-up open of 12 points or higher will probably trigger the gap-up timer.

The breakdown in semiconductors last week was a big deal but very few people even gave it a passing nod. Analysts assume AI is a new bright horizon and chips will lead. AI, schmy. Copper is also sinking in the ooze as China's economy disappoints. Of course it does. Filthy Dictator Xi is ruling China under a full-blown communist system and Western companies are jumping ship (90 million dirtbags in the CCP, led by Xi, control the 1.4 billion Chinese folks that must do what they are told or face punishment, prison or death; such is communism). Bulls need SOX above 3611 and CPER above 23.70 to prove that stocks can rally again; a tall order for the week ahead.

Bears need VIX above 15.63 pronto as explained above and weaker banks would create the next leg lower for stocks. Bears need XLF below 34.20 for the stock market to fall apart. This also is a tall order.

Watch VIX in the week ahead since it will tell you who is winning. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number on Wednesday morning which is also when the new moon peaks for the month (darkest time of month so fighting in Ukraine will intensify since night vision equipment rules). Bad Moon Rising?

8/20/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/16/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST = +12; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
8/11/23; 12:03 PM EST = +12; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
8/11/23; 10:56 AM EST = -2; signal line is +12
8/11/23; 10:26 AM EST = +12; signal line is +13
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains bearish but yesterday was a circus. The whipsaw choppy slop continues this year with the US stock market staging a -1.5% intraday reversal. We're goin' off the rails on Ozzie's Crazy Train.

Keybot the Quant flipped long at the opening bell yesterday due to chips and volatility turning bullish but then both parameters fell on their sword after munchtime creating the intraday reversal. The robot whipsawed flipping back to the short side at 2 PM EST. It is extremely rare for the quant to whipsaw in the same day. The drama continues since the algo number is only 16 points below the signal line after this week's pre-scheduled number prints minutes ago.

Bulls need SOX above 3615, CPER above 23.71 and/or VIX below 15.62. Any one of these flipping bullish will stop the market selling and start to create a recovery rally.

Bears need XLF below 34.20 to create market carnage.

On the last trades, a double-flip, the losses were marginal both ways but the quant program and actual trading generated by the quant turn negative on the year. Is the 10-months of choppy slop going to sink Keybot the Quant this year? Time will tell. On the year, the benchmark SPX is up +16%. The quant program is down a percent and the actual trading generated by Keybot the Quant is down a couple percent so far in 2023. Keybot exits DDM and enters SH on the last trade. The robot drops down into 1x ETF mode due to the triggering of the whipsaw timer. Keybot will remain in the non-leveraged single ETF's for the next 30 days due to the erratic and sloppy price action (that chews-up bulls and bears alike).

Chips, copper and volatility are all that matter and the bulls say they are Letting Me Down.

8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST = -2; signal line is +14
8/11/23; 4:06 AM EST = -2; signal line is +15
8/11/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +17
8/10/23; 1:57 PM EST = -2; signal line is +18; go short 4461; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -1.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.7%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.7%)
8/10/23; 11:52 AM EST = -2; signal line is +19 but algorithm remains long
8/10/23; 11:51 AM EST = +14; signal line is +21 but algorithm remains long
8/10/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +22; go short 4506; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +0.0%)
8/10/23; 8:53 AM EST = +12; signal line is +22
8/10/23; 8:45 AM EST = -2; signal line is +22
8/10/23; 8:36 AM EST = +12; signal line is +24
8/10/23; 5:03 AM EST = -2; signal line is +25
8/10/23; 4:46 AM EST = +12; signal line is +26
8/10/23; 4:15 AM EST = -2; signal line is +27
8/10/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +29
8/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -2; signal line is +30
8/9/23; 3:44 PM EST = +14; signal line is +32
8/9/23; 2:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33
8/9/23; 10:57 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34
8/9/23; 10:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:43 AM EST = +14; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 5:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 4:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is +38
8/8/23; 9:45 AM EST = +14; signal line is +38; go short 4479; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The robot was busy yesterday spitting-out 9 numbers and the VIX is already active this early morning in the States flipping back to the bull camp.

Semiconductors failed yesterday creating the soggy stock market. Chips, volatility and copper are all that matter.

Bulls need SOX above 3615.50, now only 5 bucks away, to create buoyancy in the stock market. S&P futures are higher so this will likely occur. Inflation data drops at 8:30 AM EST, less than 4 hours away, and will move markets so the jury remains out.

The VIX is at 15.61. That is funny. The bull/bear line in the sand is ....... wait for it ....... wait a bit longer for it ........ no, you really should wait longer for it since it is remarkable ....... 15.61. Keybot tells you the important numbers before they occur. The battle at VIX 15.61 will continue today.

Bulls need CPER above 23.73 which represents a +1.2% gain in the red metal. Copper futures are up +0.4% so the bulls have more work to do.

Thus, copper is remaining bearish for now, so semi's and volatility will likely dictate the path ahead. If VIX remains below 15.61, and if the SOX turns bullish, and the SPX moves above 4502, Keybot the Quant would likely flip long. S&P futures are up +25 points. The SPX is at 4468 so a 25-point boost would place the cash index at 4493. The bulls will need more than that. All eyes are focused on the inflation data.

8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/10/23; 3:06 AM EST = +12; signal line is +29
8/9/23; 3:59 PM EST = -2; signal line is +30
8/9/23; 3:44 PM EST = +14; signal line is +32
8/9/23; 2:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +33
8/9/23; 10:57 AM EST = +14; signal line is +34
8/9/23; 10:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:43 AM EST = +14; signal line is +36
8/9/23; 6:33 AM EST = +28; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 5:52 AM EST = +14; signal line is +37
8/9/23; 4:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is +38

Messages May Be Sporadic Going Forward Due to Ongoing Harassment and Shadow-Banning of the K E Stone Blogs

The K E Stone blogs (Keybot the Quant and The Keystone Speculator) continue to be shadow-banned and screwed on social media platforms mainly due to the Coronavirus Chronology that chronicled each day of the 3-year COVID-19 pandemic both the successes and the many failures, mistakes and misinformation and disinformation spewed by the US government and medical officials.

The corrupt political parties in America's crony capitalism system (demopublicans and republocrats) are only interested in pushing their sick narratives to maintain power and control. Any information questioning or deviating from the controlled narrative is crushed.

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday morning at SPX 4479. Copper and volatility are all that matter right now and the VIX just turned bullish again an hour ago. Today will be interesting.

The volatility bull/bear line in the sand is VIX 15.62. The VIX is trading in real-time at 15.56 in the bull camp by pennies. Obviously, the bears need the VIX above 15.62 if they want to growl today.

The copper bull/bear line in the sand is CPER 23.73 with price set to start the hump day session at 23.38 in the bear camp. Bulls need a +1.5% pop in copper futures to send CPER higher into the bull camp. Copper futures were up near +1.5% a short time ago but now up +1.1% so the bulls are trying to pump the red metal but not quite there yet.

If CPER moves above 23.73, and the SPX moves above 4520, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back into the bull camp so the imminent turn notation can remain in the title line for now. The stock market remains a mixed-up bag of chop suey for the last 10 months.

Bears will be on easy street sending stocks lower if they can keep CPER below 23.73 and push the VIX back above 15.62. Look at that. The VIX is now at 15.60 only a couple pennies from the bull/bear line setting up today's drama.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program loses a percent and the actual trading generated by the robot loses a couple percent. For the year thus far, with 7 months in the bag, the benchmark S&P 500, that is the US stock market, is up nearly +17%. The quant program is flat on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up only one percent in 2023. The choppy whipsaw slop and wild gap-up and gap-down moves wreak havoc on algorithms but Keybot the Quant is holding its own during this tumultuous year. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS remaining in the 2x leveraged ETF's. If the flip would have occurred on Monday, a couple trading hours sooner, it would have triggered a whipsaw signal and the robot would have dropped into the 1x ETF's. Time will tell if a whipsaw occurs today or early tomorrow.

As this message is posted, the VIX is at 15.63; see if it holds, or not. Watch copper and volatility. Nothing Else Matters.

8/13/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/11/23; 10:00 AM EST =
8/9/23; 4:11 AM EST = +28; signal line is +38
8/8/23; 9:45 AM EST = +14; signal line is +38; go short 4479; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +16.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -1.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.0%)
8/8/23; 9:36 AM EST = +14; signal line is +39 but algorithm remains long
8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/4/23; 2:27 PM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/4/23; 9:33 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40; go long 4524; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips back to the long side on Friday at SPX 4524; the multi-month choppy slop continues. Comically, the robot already wants to flip back to the short side with the algo number 10 points below the signal line so the imminent turn notation is in the title line.

If the SPX moves lower in an orderly fashion on Monday morning and drops and trends below 4475, Keybot the Quant will likely flip back to the short side. This represents only a 3 point drop in S&P futures overnight Sunday into Monday for the bears to growl again.

Volatility dictated the price action on Friday. The VIX is the only thing that mattered to the stock market. The VIX bull/bear line in the sand is 15.91 with price at 17.10 creating market negativity. Early Friday, after the jobs report, volatility dropped like a rock sending stocks higher but as the day played out, volatility increased sinking stocks. Bulls must push VIX below 15.91, otherwise, they have no hope going forward.

The bears need weaker copper, banks and chips so you can watch these sectors before the opening bell to gauge the strength, or lack thereof, of the market.  Bears need CPER below 23.73, XLF below 34.08 and/or SOX below 3612. Any one of these three turning bearish will create another leg down with the broad stock market. Two turning bearish will create substantive downside in stocks. If all 3 turn bearish in the days ahead, stocks will be collapsing. The utilities remain in failure mode predicting serious doom and gloom for the US stock market for the weeks ahead.

Bears can flip the model back to the short side if SPX drops below 4475. The downside and collapse in stocks will be accelerated if copper, banks or semi's fail as explained above.

Bulls need to keep copper, banks and semiconductors in their camp while at the same time pushing VIX below 15.91 to maintain control of the stock market direction.

On the last trade that ran for a couple days, the algo program and actual trading were dead flat. For the year, the benchmark SPX is up almost +18%, the quant program is up about a percent and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +3% so far in 2023. The year of chop suey continues.

Monday's opening bell will be interesting and the story will be told by either SPX 4475 (bearish) or VIX 15.91 (bullish). The VIX trades overnight so you can get a heads-up on what will happen in the US markets if you monitor the VIX between 3 AM EST and 9 AM EST Monday. Also, watch copper futures and check tickers such as XLF, XSD, SMH and NVDA in the pre-market to forecast the path ahead for Monday.

8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/23; 2:27 PM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/4/23; 9:33 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40; go long 4524; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +0.0%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)
8/4/23; 9:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/4/23; 8:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/4/23; 7:11 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40
8/4/23; 3:12 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/3/23; 1:46 PM EST = +30; signal line is +39
8/3/23; 1:25 PM EST = +44; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains short
8/2/23; 10:58 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39; go short 4518; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday at 11 AM EST, before munchtime, at SPX 4518. Volatility spikes and serves as the coffin nail for bulls. Utilities remain in failure mode threatening to send the stock market to Hades.

Copper remained elevated on happy China stimulus talk but that has faded over the last couple days and the red metal may turn bearish today creating another leg lower for stocks.

For today, Thursday, stocks may hold steady waiting on the US Monthly Jobs Report, now only 28 hours away. Copper and volatility are dictating stock market direction.

The VIX bull/bear line in the sand is 15.86. VIX is trading over 17 in real-time creating negativity. S&P futures are down -21 deteriorating over the last hour. Bulls have absolutely no hope going forward unless they can push the VIX beach ball back under water at 15.86. Stocks will rally if the VIX drops below 15.86.

The CPER line in the sand is 23.72 with price starting today at 23.76 only pennies away from failure. Copper futures would need to lose only -0.2% to cause the failure and create more stock market negativity. Copper futures are down -0.4% so it makes sense that futures are dropping. 

On the last trade, that ran for almost a month, the quant program gains a couple percent and the actual trading generated by the quant gains almost +4%. For the year thus far, with 7 months in the bag, the benchmark S&P 500 is up +18%. Isn't that something? A big bullish year but will it hold? The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +1.4% on the year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +3% in 2023 thus far a great showing considering the 10 months of choppy messy whipsaw slop. The plugs were pulled on many quants and algos because they cannot ride the bucking stock market like Keybot can. Keybot exits SSO and enters SDS. Maybe the stock market will start trending more instead of displaying more choppy slop.

The algo number is only 9 points below the signal line so the bears will need to create more difference if they want to take stocks lower. Watch copper since it will tell you the stock market story today.

8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/23; 9:00 AM EST =
8/2/23; 10:58 AM EST = +30; signal line is +39; go short 4518; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +17.7%)(Keybot algo this trade = +2.1%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.4%)(Actual results this trade = +3.9%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.9%)
8/2/23; 10:51 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
8/2/23; 5:52 AM EST = +44; signal line is +40
8/2/23; 4:33 AM EST = +30; signal line is +40 but algorithm remains long
7/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +44; signal line is +40
7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/25/23; 10:25 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
7/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/25/23; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/24/23; 11:24 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35
7/24/23; 10:37 AM EST = +44 signal line is +33
7/24/23; 10:20 AM EST = +28; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
7/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +32
7/21/23; 10:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +31
7/21/23; 10:52 AM EST = +28; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
7/21/23; 10:42 AM EST = +44; signal line is +30
7/21/23; 9:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
7/20/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +28
7/19/23; 1:27 PM EST = +28; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 1:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 12:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +24
7/19/23; 12:09 PM EST = +44; signal line is +23
7/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +22
7/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:54 AM EST = +44; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +17
7/16/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +17
7/14/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +15
7/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +13
7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +11
7/7/23; 1:37 PM EST = +28; signal line is +10
7/7/23; 1:17 PM EST = +44; signal line is +8
7/7/23; 12:30 PM EST = +28; signal line is +7; go long 4425; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -3.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market battle continues. Utilities and copper continue controlling stock market direction. The bulls are in charge but the algo number is only 5 measly points above the signal line.

UTIL (DJU) 945.03 and 969.34 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand for the week ahead. UTIL begins the week at 934 below both the 945 and 969 palindrome, in the bear camp, creating market negativity. Not only that, but if this activity remains, it warns of a serious and epic drop in the stock market set to begin anytime that will do extensive damage in the weeks ahead. Bulls must push UTIL at least above 945 or they are in big trouble.

CPER 23.60 is another bull/bear line in the sand. CPER begins the new week at 24.32 a big 72 cents, or 3%, above the key 23.60. Watch copper futures overnight to see if the red metal drops -3%.

Bulls need UTIL above 945 to breathe easier about the path forward. If UTIL then moves above 969, the bulls will be partying sending stocks higher in the week ahead.

Bears need CPER below 23.60 and if this occurs, and the SPX drops below 4564 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The -3% drop in copper is a lot to ask for if you are bearish.

Watch UTIL 945. If price comes up and pokes above and below 945 a couple times or so during Monday, that signals a stock market that is about to turn negative. Since the requirement for copper is substantive (-3%), the bears may instead jog UTIL above and below 945 a few times which would then create the potential for the model to flip short regardless of the status in copper.

The week ahead will be interesting. Keybot prints a pre-scheduled number tomorrow evening for month end and then also on Friday morning before the opening bell.

8/6/23; 7:00 PM EST =
8/4/23; 9:00 AM EST =
7/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +39         
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long. The algo number is only a measly 5 points above the signal line so the bulls keep trying to hang on day after day. The drama with utilities and copper continue. Add volatility to the mix and these three parameters are dictating the direction of the US stock market currently.

UTIL (DJU) is at 934 falling back yesterday from the key 945.03 (this parameter fluctuates slightly since it is continually recalculated) and 956.47 lines in the sand. This is a major failure that points to serious trouble for the stock market ahead. However, the utes have made this threat 2 or 3 other times in recent weeks only for the Fed and others to pump utes higher to take away the threat. Perhaps they may not be able to save the utilities going forward.

For today, bulls need to push UTIL above 945.03 to prove they still got game. In addition, a move above 956.47 would prove that the stock market rally has more legs. For next week, the 956.47 is meaningless and replaced with 969.34 a harder comparable for the bulls to achieve.

For next week, the two key bull/bear lines in the sand are UTIL 945.03 and 969.34. Therefore, pay close attention to where UTIL ends the week today. If UTIL ends above 969, that tells you a huge rally in stocks is on tap next week. If UTIL finishes today above 945 but below 969, it is more same-o, same-o, choppy confusing slop going forward. If UTIL finishes today below 945, the US stock market is in trouble going forward.

Copper is another big influencer of stock market direction currently like utes. Bears must push CPER below 23.60, price is now at 23.76, to create market mayhem. That is only 16 pennies away or -0.7%. Copper futures are currently up +0.5% in real-time so the bears have work to do.

Volatility is coming back into play as well. The robot identifies VIX 16.44 as an increasingly important parameter impacting stock market direction. VIX is at the 14.41 palindrome at the end of the day yesterday and is currently trading at 13.92 below 14. You will know that the stock market is in real trouble and falling apart when VIX moves above 16.44. Until then, the bears can growl, but their bark does not have much bite.

The bulls remain in charge of stock market direction. If the bears can keep utes negative, and at the same time pull CPER below 23.60, and pull the SPX below 4529, Keybot the Quant would likely flip short, hence the imminent turn notation is in the title line. If VIX pops above 16.44, the stock market will be in free fall. The fun continues. All the girls and lovely ladies just want to have fun.

7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/27/23; 10:41 AM EST = +44; signal line is +39
7/25/23; 10:25 AM EST = +60; signal line is +38
7/25/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +37
7/25/23; 9:37 AM EST = +44; signal line is +36
7/24/23; 11:24 AM EST = +60; signal line is +35
7/24/23; 10:37 AM EST = +44 signal line is +33
7/24/23; 10:20 AM EST = +28; signal line is +32 but algorithm remains long
7/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +32

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 12 points above the signal line, however, the bears are starting to growl and want the stock market ball back. Utes and copper are telling the market tale currently.

The bulls push UTIL above the critical 946.90 preventing the bears from taking control. The two key bull/bear lines in the sand for utilities in the week ahead are 946.90 and 956.47. UTIL price is at 948.70 above the 946.90 creating stock market joy while price is below the key 956.47 creating market sadness (a wash).

Copper also walks a tightrope. The bull/bear line in the sand for CPER is 23.59 with price at 23.56. The weakness in copper creates bearishness in the stock market but it is a coin-flip with only a 3-penny gap.

As utilities go, so goes the stock market. As copper goes, so goes the stock market.

If the bulls can push UTIL above 956.47, the stock market upside orgy continues.

If the bears can push UTIL below 946.90, the stock market will be in trouble, and if the SPX is then below 4536 and trending lower, Keybot the Quant may flip to the short side, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. The SPX closed at the lows on Friday at 4536 so any negativity in the S&P futures overnight will give the bears a head start.

Bulls win with higher utilities and copper while bears win with weaker utilities and copper. Monday morning we see what the bears got. Will bears take control of the stock market or fold like a cheap suit? Sharp Dressed Man.

Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday morning and the other on Friday morning. The month ends (EOM) the following Monday, 7/31/23.

7/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/30/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/28/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/25/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/23/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +32
7/21/23; 10:57 AM EST = +44; signal line is +31
7/21/23; 10:52 AM EST = +28; signal line is +30 but algorithm remains long
7/21/23; 10:42 AM EST = +44; signal line is +30
7/21/23; 9:49 AM EST = +28; signal line is +28 but algorithm remains long
7/20/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +28
7/19/23; 1:27 PM EST = +28; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 1:11 PM EST = +44; signal line is +26
7/19/23; 12:21 PM EST = +28; signal line is +24
7/19/23; 12:09 PM EST = +44; signal line is +23
7/19/23; 9:36 AM EST = +28; signal line is +22
7/19/23; 9:00 AM EST = +28; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:54 AM EST = +44; signal line is +20
7/17/23; 9:43 AM EST = +28; signal line is +17
7/16/23; 7:00 PM EST = +44; signal line is +17
7/14/23; 10:00 AM EST = +44; signal line is +15
7/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +13

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long only printing one number this week thus far. The bulls are running higher on the happy Fed talk and inflation data that shows easing. The dollar falls out of bed catapulting commodities and copper higher pumping US equities higher.

Utilities are a rocket launch (see previous posts explaining utes and charts on The Keystone Speculator blog) this week so the bulls are trying to prevent a stock market crash in the weeks ahead. UTIL is at 927. UTIL 940 and 950 are the two key bull/bear lines in the sand this week with only 2 sessions remaining. For next week, UTIL 971 and 950 are the two bull/bear lines in the sand.

If UTIL pops above 940 today or tomorrow, the stock market will take another leg higher. Bears must pull utes lower and prevent 940 with all their might. If 940 is taken out, watch 950 next since that will create more euphoria in stocks and a move above 971 next week will create a very bullish scenario ahead. A lot is riding on the utilities over the next 2 days.

Bears need UTIL to stall here and stay away from 940. If UTIL remains below 940 going forward, the stock market will likely begin a huge down move that will be extremely devastating (potential crash) over the coming weeks and couple-few months.

Copper creates yesterdays stock market joy. CPER overtakes 23.47 now at 23.77. Bears need CPER below 23.47 to stop the upside rally in the stock market. This represents a -1.3% loss in copper futures that are currently up +0.4%. Bears also need to send GTX below 3283 if they want to growl. The bulls are happy walking around with their chests puffed out feeling like a Sharp Dressed Man.

7/16/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/14/23; 10:00 AM EST =
7/12/23; 9:36 AM EST = +44; signal line is +13
7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST = +28; signal line is +11
7/7/23; 1:37 PM EST = +28; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side at SPX 4425 at munchtime yesterday after a week of drama. Utilities commit to the bear camp but commodities jump into the bull camp. Utilities, copper, commodities and banks are all that matter and the bank earnings begin next week.

The bulls take control but the algo number is only 18 points above the signal line so the caution flag remains out. GTX 3273-3274 is a key bull/bear line in the sand with price jumping higher to 3304. Commodities and copper will dictate stock market direction on Monday.

On the last trade, that ran for 2 weeks, the quant program loses a couple percent and the actual trading loses almost -4%. For the year thus far, with over one-half of the 2023 trading in the rearview mirror, the benchmark S&P 500 is up a big +15%. The Keybot the Quant program and actual trading is flat on the year continuing to weather the wild whipsaw chop suey for the last 7 months. Some investment houses have pulled the plugs on their quants and algorithms since the models cannot handle the whipsaws and choppy slop this year. Keybot exits SDS and enters SSO. Stay alert for a potential whipsaw back to the short side.

If GTX oscillates above and below the 3273-3274 line in the sand a couple/few times on Monday resolving lower, and copper remains weak, that tells you that the model likely wants to flip back to the short side. If copper rallies, that likely hints that stocks want to run higher for a couple days or so. 

7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/7/23; 1:37 PM EST = +28; signal line is +10
7/7/23; 1:17 PM EST = +44; signal line is +8
7/7/23; 12:30 PM EST = +28; signal line is +7; go long 4425; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +15.2%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.0%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.7%)(Actual results this trade = -3.8%; Actual results for 2023 = -1.0%)
7/7/23; 9:52 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
7/7/23; 9:36 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
7/7/23; 9:00 AM EST = +30; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
7/6/23; 11:57 AM EST = +18; signal line is +5 but algorithm remains short
7/6/23; 9:41 AM EST = +2; signal line is +6
7/5/23; 2:18 PM EST = +32; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
7/5/23; 1:42 PM EST = +32; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 12:56 PM EST = +18; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 12:44 PM EST = +2; signal line is +9
7/3/23; 12:13 PM EST = +18; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 11:52 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
7/3/23; 11:41 AM EST = +18; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 11:23 AM EST = +2; signal line is +12
7/3/23; 10:38 AM EST = +18; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +2; signal line is +13
6/30/23; 10:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 3:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 12:57 PM EST = -14; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 11:33 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15
6/28/23; 10:58 AM EST = -14; signal line is +15
6/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15
6/27/23; 9:43 AM EST = +0; signal line is +15
6/26/23; 12:11 PM EST = -16; signal line is +14; go short 4336; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.3%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as more drama occurs in the shortened session. The algo prints 7 numbers in the short session with the bulls and bears duking it out back and forth. The quant is champing at the bit to go long with the algo number 10 points above the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet to permit the move.

Utilities ran the show on Monday and that will continue on Wednesday after the July 4th holiday and party time in Party Town. UTIL 910.67 is the bull/bear line in the sand this week and will send the overall stock market in the same direction. UTIL is at 912.39 creating lift in stocks. If bearish, you must see UTIL below 910.67 as soon as possible or you will be hosed.

Bears must push UTIL below 911 or they are in trouble. Bears need weaker banks and XLF below 33.02 but the financials continue higher each day.

If UTIL remains above 911, and the SPX moves above 4456, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

This is only 1 point higher in the S&P futures overnight so that will give you a heads-up on what is in store for Wednesday. The bulls have it if they want it but a gap-up move at the opening bell is not desired. If the SPX gaps higher at the opening bell tomorrow morning on hump day, the algo will likely bulk at going long and instead wait approximately 90 minutes before committing.

Bulls need stronger copper and CPER above 23.50 which represents a +0.7% pop in copper futures so watch that closely. Bulls will also benefit from stronger commodities and GTX above 3270. Either one of these parameters jumping into the bull camp will guarantee higher stocks going forward.

Boiling it down to make things simple, if S&P futures are up from +1 to about +12 at the opening bell, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. If copper futures are up over +0.7%, that will tell you the bulls rule and stocks are going to melt-up higher.

If S&P futures are up over +13, the algo will likely wait for about 90 minutes before committing to the long side, if it does.

If S&P futures are negative, the bears may still have some fight in them. This negativity will be bolstered if UTIL can fall back below 910.67 and trail lower. Weak copper and commodities will also give a nod to the bears. 

Wednesday will be an interesting day in the stock market where the bulls puff their chests out proving how strong they are, or, they fold like a cheap suit. Happy Independence Day.

7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/7/23; 9:00 AM EST =
7/3/23; 12:56 PM EST = +18; signal line is +8 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 12:44 PM EST = +2; signal line is +9
7/3/23; 12:13 PM EST = +18; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 11:52 AM EST = +2; signal line is +11
7/3/23; 11:41 AM EST = +18; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains short
7/3/23; 11:23 AM EST = +2; signal line is +12
7/3/23; 10:38 AM EST = +18; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains short
7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +2; signal line is +13

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION --TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short with the algo number 11 points below the signal line but the stock market continues higher on the Fed Chairman Powell and AI orgy rallies. The algo has been idling since mid-week waiting for a firm commitment one way or the other.

Utilities, copper, commodities and banks are running the stock market show currently. The first three are in the bear camp so the bulls need them on board if stocks are to continue higher. The banks are in the bull camp having a good ole time after promising more divvy's and buybacks late Friday in the corrupt crony capitalism system. Bears need weaker banksters if they want to stop the rally.

Bears need XLF below 32.80 to stop the rally in stocks.

Bulls need either UTIL above 911, CPER above 23.52, and/or GTX above 3276 to create another leg higher in stocks. Any one of them can flip bullish which would signal that the upside is real. 2 or all 3 flipping bullish means the orgy party is about to become more decadent with stocks shooting far higher.

If any of the 3 flip bullish, and the SPX moves above 4458, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation is added to the title line.

Monday will be a big day even though it is a shortened session with the stock market closing at 1:00 PM EST for the July 4th holiday landing on Tuesday this year. US markets are closed on Tuesday for Independence Day, as talented and pretty Martina steals the show, and regular trading resumes from hump day forward.

Utilities failed last week opening the door to extremely bad things going forward for the weeks ahead. The bulls have a chance to save the day this week if they can push UTIL above 911 only 4 points away. If UTIL move above 911 and stays above in the week ahead, and then sets its sights on the 930-940 level, stocks are going to run higher. If, however, utes are weak and cannot regain 911 by the end of the week, it spells major trouble for stocks going forward. UTIL begins at the perhaps ominous, 906.66, number; trip 6's.

Copper futures will need to jump about +1.4% overnight Sunday into Monday morning to get CPER in the bull camp so check that in the early tape. Copper and commodities tell you a lot about the stock market ahead. Both need to rally to push stocks higher. If both remain in a lull and roll over lower, so will stocks. You can check XLF in the pre-market to see how the financials are trading.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. Q2 and the first half of trading is in the bag. Q3 (July, August, September) trading begins tomorrow with the shortened session and everyone mad to be there instead of home enjoying a barbecue party.

7/9/23; 7:00 PM EST =
7/7/23; 9:00 AM EST =
7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = +2; signal line is +13
6/30/23; 10:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 3:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +14

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant is short as the stock market floats higher. The algo prints 4 numbers on Wednesday but none today.

Traders put their clothes back on at the AI orgy party and walk down the street to the bank party at the Love Shack. Tin roof, rusted! The bank stress tests are always a joke that result in happy upside and this time is no different. The banks may remain buoyant tomorrow into the weekend because they will announce changes to their divvy's, buybacks and other financial plans (for the good) Friday afternoon. The banksters rule the crony capitalism system.

The current situation is odd since the algo number is 12 points below the signal line but stocks are buoyant receiving pumps from the AI and bankster orgies. Bears need weaker banks to take stocks lower but XLF is running way above the 32.76 bull/bear line in the sand.

Bulls need higher copper to prove they can take stocks higher but the red metal is puking its guts out nowhere near the CPER 23.52 bull/bear line in the sand.

Bulls need stronger utilities but they are dragged to the shed behind the garage and beaten mercilessly. UTIL must be above 911 by the end of the Friday session or there will be trouble next week and going forward. Note that UTIL price came down to tag 888 which was last week's line in the sand called out by the robot.

Bulls can take stocks higher going forward if they push UTIL above 911 over the coming days. UTIL is at 897 forecasting horrific trouble for the stock market going forward. It is critical that UTIL recover above 911 pronto and going forward, otherwise, bad things are on tap for the stock market in the weeks forward.

Bulls need stronger commodities so GTX above 3270 would help the bulls. It is a Mexican standoff. Watch copper and the banks because the battle between these two major market influencers dictates the path ahead for stocks.

7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/30/23; 10:00 AM EST =
6/28/23; 3:36 PM EST = +2; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 12:57 PM EST = -14; signal line is +14
6/28/23; 11:33 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15
6/28/23; 10:58 AM EST = -14; signal line is +15
6/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains short. The banks jump into the bull camp so stocks move higher. Dip-buyers celebrate another AI orgy party pushing stocks higher. Utilities, copper and banks are all that matter. Nothing Else Matters.

Banks remain key with stress test information released later this afternoon. XLF is at 32.93 that is 17 pennies above the key bull/bear line in the sand at XLF 32.76. S&P futures are soggy but meaningless unless XLF loses 32.76. Stocks may drop but if banks remain bullish, stocks will likely recover and float higher.

Dr Copper remains important. Bulls need CPER above 23.55 to prove they got game. CPER is at 23.37 only 18 pennies below the critical bull/bear line in the sand. Whoopsies daisies. Copper futures are down -1.4% in real-time so CPER will sh*t the bed.

Utilities remain at an important juncture. Keybot the Quant already called out UTIL 910.67 as the key bull/bear line in the sand for all of next week. Look at the closing price from yesterday. 910.67. Unbelievable. Dead nuts. This tells you that the quant is a superior trading model.

It also tells you that the UTIL 910.67 line in the sand for next Monday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (Tuesday is the holiday and US markets close at 1 PM EST Monday) will dictate the path forward for stocks. If UTIL ends this week above 910.67, bulls will be happy next week. If UTIL fades lower from here and finishes the week below 910.67, there will be trouble in the stock market next week and for weeks and months ahead.

The bears are in control with the algo number 13 points below the signal line. That is a flimsy difference so the bears are going to need more downside oomph and that would begin with XLF below 32.76 (weaker banks).

Bull fun begins with CPER above 23.55 (higher copper) but that does not appear on tap today.

7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/30/23; 10:00 AM EST =
6/27/23; 10:00 AM EST = +2; signal line is +15
6/27/23; 9:43 AM EST = +0; signal line is +15
6/26/23; 12:11 PM EST = -16; signal line is +14; go short 4336; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.3%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.8%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 4336 at 12:11 PM EST only minutes after the last post. Banks cannot recover today so the mood sours.

The bears are in charge with the algo number 30 points below the signal line. XLF 32.75 will tell you if the bulls can stop the landslide, as Stevie sings and Lindsey plays the guitar, or not.

On the last trade that ran for one month, the quant program gains +3% and the actual trading gains +2%. The DIA ETF (Dow) lagged the other index ETF's on the last trade. The benchmark SPX is up +13% this year so the bulls are walking around with their chests puffed-out. The quant program is up a percent this year and the actual trading is up +3%. One-half of the year is in the bag. The robot is dealing with choppy slop for the last 6 months and holding its own. Keybot the Quant exits DIA and enters SDS. A timer expired (no more whipsaws) so the robot is back in the 2x leveraged ETF's. Let's see what the bears got.

7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/30/23; 10:00 AM EST =
6/27/23; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/23; 12:11 PM EST = -16; signal line is +14; go short 4336; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +12.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +3.3%; Keybot algo for 2023 = +1.3%)(Actual results this trade = +1.8%; Actual results for 2023 = +2.8%)
6/26/23; 10:15 AM EST = -16; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/26/23; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/26/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/25/23; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/23/23; 2:53 PM EST = +0; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/23/23; 11:33 AM EST = +16; signal line is +13
6/23/23; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long
6/22/23; 11:09 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10
6/20/23; 2:33 PM EST = +46; signal line is +8
6/20/23; 9:46 AM EST = +32; signal line is +5
6/20/23; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +3
6/18/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +1
6/16/23; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is -2
6/16/23; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is -4
6/15/23; 12:13 PM EST = +32; signal line is -6
6/15/23; 10:39 AM EST = +16; signal line is -9
6/15/23; 10:02 AM EST = +32; signal line is -11
6/14/23; 1:35 PM EST = +16; signal line is -14
6/14/23; 9:49 AM EST = +32; signal line is -15
6/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -18
6/11/23; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is -20
6/9/23; 10:53 AM EST = +0; signal line is -22
6/9/23; 10:30 AM EST = +16; signal line is -23
6/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is -25
6/5/23; 2:09 PM EST = -16; signal line is -27
6/5/23; 2:02 PM EST = +0; signal line is -27
6/5/23; 1:26 PM EST = -16; signal line is -28
6/5/23; 12:11 PM EST = +0; signal line is -29
6/5/23; 9:58 AM EST = -16; signal line is -30
6/4/23; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is -30
6/2/23; 10:22 AM EST = +0; signal line is -31
6/2/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -31
6/2/23; 9:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
6/1/23; 3:20 PM EST = -34; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
6/1/23; 1:15 PM EST = -18; signal line is -29
5/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -34; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
5/30/23; 3:46 PM EST = -34; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains long
5/30/23; 3:06 PM EST = -18; signal line is -26
5/30/23; 11:21 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains long
5/30/23; 10:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -25
5/28/23; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is -25
5/26/23; 10:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -25; go long 4197; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.0%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the choppy sloppy stock market staggers along. Utes are in failure painting an ugly picture for weeks and months ahead. Copper remains in the bear camp. Banks popped this morning creating market joy but then fell on their sword so stocks fell like rocks.

XLF 32.75 is the key bull/bear line in the sand and price is inching higher again at 32.70.

Keybot the Quant continues champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 31 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not yet latch. The SPX needs to drop below 4339 and trend lower for the quant to flip short. Price is at 4348 in real-time so bears have work to do.

It is simple. Bulls maintain stock market buoyancy if the XLF can move above 32.75. If the day moves along, and the XLF cannot turn bullish, stocks should roll over and die. As banks go, so goes the market.

Bears simply need SPX below 4339 to flip the model short and that is only a few dollars away. Choose your poison. Sing along with William Bell about the Poison in the Well.

Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week one tomorrow and one on Friday morning. The month of June (EOM), the quarter (EOQ2) and first half of the year (EOH1) end on Friday. Q3 trading begins on Monday. Investment houses may be repositioning many stocks this week, having to buy some of the performers, to make the investments look right for the half-year client statements (window-dressing).

7/2/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/30/23; 10:00 AM EST =
6/27/23; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/23; 10:15 AM EST = -16; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/26/23; 9:37 AM EST = +0; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/26/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/25/23; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/23/23; 2:53 PM EST = +0; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long despite the Friday drama and negativity. The banks and copper are sitting on the bull/bear lines in the sand that the quant identified ahead of time.

Keybot is champing at the bit to go short with the algo number 15 points below the signal line but the internal parameters will not fully latch yet.

An ominous picture emerges since utilities are set up to fail on Monday morning. UTIL is at 902 and must move above 923.21 next week, otherwise, the US stock market is in a crash profile going forward (significant losses expected in stocks for the weeks and months ahead; this is not child's play; stay alert, nimble and active).

It is a game of pennies, literally. Copper, commodities, banks and utes are running the stock market show currently. All are set up negatively but only by hairs.

The bulls need either CPER above 23.55 (now at 23.54 one penny in the bear camp), GTX above 3281 (now at 3236 in the bear camp only 45 bucks away), and/or XLF above 32.75 (now at 32.74 only one penny in the bear camp). Any one of these turning bullish will immediately stop the stock market selling and a relief rally will begin.

The path forward is simple for the bears. Do nothing and stocks will sink like rocks. It is up to the bulls to stop the negativity.

If the SPX slips below 4341 trending lower (starting Monday morning at 4348), Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. Bears do not want a gap-down move since that would delay the flip to the short side. Bears needs slow steady gradual weakness and when/if it loses 4341, that will seal the market's fate. What do you think? A Black Monday on tap?

If S&P futures are down -7 overnight Sunday into Monday morning, that indicates trouble ahead. Also, watch copper futures to see if they are trading positive or negative; ditto the banks, you can check XLF in the pre-market. It may be a Manic Monday, as the girls play and sing.

6/25/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/23/23; 2:53 PM EST = +0; signal line is +15 but algorithm remains long
6/23/23; 11:33 AM EST = +16; signal line is +13
6/23/23; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is +11 but algorithm remains long
6/22/23; 11:09 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long but the bears are starting to scratch at the bull's door. Commodities were weak yesterday and that sogginess follows through this early Friday morning. The bulls are in charge but their lead is lessening with the algo number only 22 points above the signal line.

Typically, a 22-point separation means the current trend will continue but there could be a big push lower today so the imminent turn notation is placed in the title line. Stock market direction is currently controlled by copper, commodities, banks and utilities. That's a motley crew. Motley Crue.

Copper is in the bull camp creating lift to stocks. Bears need CPER below 23.59 which represents a -1.7% drop in copper futures that are now down -1.6%. The bears want to turn the red metal negative to create market negativity.

Commodities are in the bear camp creating market sogginess. Bulls need GTX above 3283 to stop the stock market selling.

Banks are bullish but teasing the critical bull/bear line at XLF 32.75. XLF begins today at 32.88 only pennies away from failure (0.4%). XLF drops -0.5% in the pre-market to 32.72 so the banks are set up to fail today with the opening bell less than 4 hours away.

Utilities are a mixed bag. Bulls need UTIL above 954 to create big upside in stocks but price is at 917. For next week, UTIL 923 is also a critical bull/bear line in the sand. Watch the 923 like a hawk today. If UTIL ends the week below 923, that spells trouble for next week for stocks beginning Monday morning. If UTIL finishes the week above 923, that hints that the stock market selling should not develop into something big.

Summing up the mumbo-jumbo, if both XLF drops below 32.75 and if CPER drops below 23.59, both are likely needed to turn bearish, and the SPX drops below 4360 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short hence the imminent turn notation in the title line. Bulls simply need to stop the deterioration in the banks and copper and they will be fine. Today will be interesting.

In early trading, XLF remains at 32.72 in failure, and copper futures are down to, wait for it,...... wait a bit longer for it ........ just a bit longer ........ -1.7%. It may be an exciting day ahead. Is the stock market livin' on a prayer?

6/25/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/22/23; 11:09 AM EST = +32; signal line is +10
6/20/23; 2:33 PM EST = +46; signal line is +8

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long with the algo number 38 points above the signal line. Commodities, copper and the banks are controlling stock market direction this holiday-shortened week.

Bears need GTX below 3284 (now at 3288), CPER below 23.58 (now 23.95) and/or XLF below 32.80 (now at 33.18) to stop the stock market rally. Any 1 of the 3 will automatically halt further upside in US equities. The quant likely needs all 3 to flip into the bear camp to turn the model bearish but this may not be as hard as it seems.

GTX is only 4 bucks from the bull/bear line in the sand. This could flip bearish immediately. CPER is only -1.5% away from negativity and XLF only -1.2% from negativity. Copper futures are down -0.2% in real-time so the bears still have work to do to beat the red metal lower. XLF is unchanged in the pre-market. Watch the banks to see if they drop from -1% to -2% today which would hurt the stock market.

GTX lost the 3284 line in the sand yesterday but recovered. Watch it closely since it may continue to jog above and below 3284 which would decrease the need for all 3 parameters to turn bearish to flip the quant short. In other words, if GTX jogs above and below 3284, say, 2 or 3 times today, and then begins trending lower below 3284, the quant likely only needs CPER or XLF to turn negative, only one of them, to flip short. The bears are saying, "Let It Drop," trying to puff their chests out, so we will see what they got today.

6/25/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/20/23; 2:33 PM EST = +46; signal line is +8
6/20/23; 9:46 AM EST = +32; signal line is +5
6/20/23; 9:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is +3
6/18/23; 7:00 PM EST = +46; signal line is +1
6/16/23; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is -2

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls goose utilities and commodities to create more upside during the past week. The bulls are in charge with the algo number 48 points above the signal line.

The bulls are having a big party in their camp with AI the center of the orgy and the Fed members dancing and singing Kumbaya around the campfire. The bulls need UTIL above 954 to guarantee a long and huge summer party for stocks.

Bears need UTIL below 888 for the holiday-shortened week ahead which is a big ask. US markets are closed Monday for the Juneteenth holiday but humorously, most of you are slaves having to get up and go to work each day.

For the last week of June, the UTIL 888 number will be meaningless and replaced with 923 a harder number for the bulls to stay above. UTIL price is at 925 already identifying the 923 as a more important number and it can be assessed at 4 PM EST on Friday, 6/23/23, for a heads-up for the last week of the month.

The first week in July will have a UTIL comparison number at 910 and then the following 15-wk lookback numbers are higher. Thus, over the coming days and couple weeks, watch UTIL 910-923. It is a bullish signal if UTIL can remain above 910-923. However, if UTIL loses the 910-923 range in the week ahead, or by the end of the month, it likely portends a major crash on tap for the stock market to begin anytime in July and August.

In addition to weaker utes, the bears need weaker copper and commodities to take back the stock market football. A higher US dollar will sink commodities and visa versa.

6/18/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/23; 10:00 AM EST = +46; signal line is -2
6/16/23; 9:36 AM EST = +46; signal line is -4
6/15/23; 12:13 PM EST = +32; signal line is -6
6/15/23; 10:39 AM EST = +16; signal line is -9
6/15/23; 10:02 AM EST = +32; signal line is -11
6/14/23; 1:35 PM EST = +16; signal line is -14
6/14/23; 9:49 AM EST = +32; signal line is -15
6/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -18

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as stocks are pumped higher into the Fed decision and presser today. Banks sent the stock market higher last week and this week it is copper. China is goosing their economy with stimulus so Dr Copper jumps off his hospital bed and is ready to run a marathon.

The bulls remain in charge with the algo number 34 points above the signal line. The quant only prints one number so far this week. The caution flag would be taken away if Powell was not speaking today. Markets may react wildly in one direction or the other depending on what the chairman says this afternoon.

Utilities remain in failure mode which creates tension and excitement. UTIL is at 911.47 remaining under 916.23 this week an extremely negative signal but traders do not care since they are too busy buying stocks.

Utes, copper and commodities are running the show this week. Bulls need GTX above 3272 and/or UTIL above 916.23 to create lots more upside in the stock market. Either one will create a strong leg higher and both will catapult stocks to the moon. If stocks rally strongly but neither of these bull/bear lines in the sand are crossed, stocks will roll over and fade lower.

Bears need weaker copper by sending CPER below 23.49. This will stop the stock market rally. Copper futures, however, are up +0.3% currently, about 1-1/2 hour before the opening bell, so the bulls are still puffing their chests out. The Powell presser is when the excitement will occur between 2 PM EST and 3 PM EST into the closing bell at 4 PM EST.

6/18/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/23; 10:00 AM EST =
6/13/23; 9:36 AM EST = +16; signal line is -18
6/11/23; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is -20

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. Copper tried to rally on Friday but fell on its sword. UTIL drops from 920 to 915 below the critical 916.23 line in the sand for this week. Bulls win if UTIL moves above 916.23. Bears win if UTIL remains below 916.23 trending lower.

The utility chart is posted on The Keystone Speculator's site that explains the UTIL (DJU) drama in detail. The XLU ETF trades up +0.2% in the pre-market so it looks like there will be lots of drama around UTIL 916.23 today.

Keybot prints one pre-scheduled number this week on Friday morning. The big drama this week is the inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Federal Reserve on Wednesday.

6/18/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/23; 10:00 AM EST =
6/11/23; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is -20
6/9/23; 10:53 AM EST = +0; signal line is -22
6/9/23; 10:30 AM EST = +16; signal line is -23
6/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is -25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long as the market circus continues. Stocks are floating higher looking forward to inflation data on Tuesday and Wednesday and Fed Chairman Powell's press conference on Wednesday.  The bulls are in charge with the algo number 25 points above the signal line.

The stock market is robust on the bullish side although there are a couple of interesting things to watch today to forecast what may be on tap next week.

Bulls need stronger copper, commodities and utilities to extend the rally higher. Bulls need CPER above 23.52, GTX above 3282 and UTIL above 928.44. Any 1 of the 3 turning bullish will send equities strongly higher into the weekend.

CPER needs a +0.9% pop to tag 23.52 but copper futures are up only +0.2%. Stocks will catapult higher if copper futures increase above +0.9% today.

Utilities have been in failure mode indicating bad things for the stock market going forward. For this week, UTIL 928.44 is the key bull/bear line in the sand. Price moves higher to 921 creating high drama. For all of next week, the 928.44 becomes a worthless number replaced with 916.23.

Thus, if UTIL moves above 928.44 today, stocks will rally bigtime into the weekend. If UTIL ends the week above 916.23, that tells you that the US stock market will begin Monday morning on a positive upbeat likely headed to more upside joy. If UTIL fails to achieve 928.44 today, or does and fails, and then finishes today below 916.23, that tells you that next week is likely set up for the start of an epic and historic drop in the stock market.

Bulls need CPER above 23.52, GTX above 3282 and UTIL above 928.44 today, or UTIL above 916.23 at the closing bell today, to signal the all-clear for far higher stock prices. If none of these four outcomes occur today, the stock market rally will stall and sputter.

6/11/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/6/23; 9:36 AM EST = +0; signal line is -25
6/5/23; 2:09 PM EST = -16; signal line is -27
6/5/23; 2:02 PM EST = +0; signal line is -27
6/5/23; 1:26 PM EST = -16; signal line is -28
6/5/23; 12:11 PM EST = +0; signal line is -29
6/5/23; 9:58 AM EST = -16; signal line is -30
6/4/23; 7:00 PM EST = +0; signal line is -30
6/2/23; 10:22 AM EST = +0; signal line is -31
6/2/23; 9:36 AM EST = -16; signal line is -31
6/2/23; 9:00 AM EST = -34; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
6/1/23; 3:20 PM EST = -34; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains long
6/1/23; 1:15 PM EST = -18; signal line is -29
5/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -34; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long as the chop suey continues. The AI orgy, debt crisis drama, Fed rate hike saga, and US Monthly Jobs Report on tap tomorrow morning continue this year's whipsaw choppy slop.

The quant is champing at the bit to go short but the internal parameters will not yet permit the move. The bears had it on a silver platter yesterday. All the bears had to do was send the SPX price slowly lower and the algorithm would have likely flipped short but instead it was a gap-down open triggering a timer that delayed the move and then that window closed.

Keybot the Quant wants to go short and if the SPX drops below 4154, starting at 4180, the algo will likely flip short (bears need -26 SPX points). However, S&P futures are up +9 points 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell in the States.

Bears need VIX above 19.19 to usher in serious market negativity. Price is at 17.19 right now in real-time so the bears need 2 sticks higher if they want to make the bulls bleed.

Bulls need RTH above 164.45 to take away the threat of the model flipping short.

Thus, bears need SPX below 4154 that will likely flip the model short. VIX above 19.19 will flush the stock market down the toilet. Bulls will take away the threat of the quant flipping short if they can push RTH back above 164.45.

6/4/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/2/23; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/23; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -34; signal line is -28 but algorithm remains long
5/30/23; 3:46 PM EST = -34; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains long
5/30/23; 3:06 PM EST = -18; signal line is -26
5/30/23; 11:21 AM EST = -34; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains long
5/30/23; 10:00 AM EST = -18; signal line is -25
5/28/23; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is -25

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Friday at SPX 4197 during the AI orgy. It is more whipsaw choppy slop. Volatility and retail stocks (watch Scamazon) lead the way up for the bulls just as they led the way down for the bears.

It is notable and a negative that the NYA index, despite the euphoric party on Friday, was unable to move above 15139. Bulls got nothing unless this occurs.

The bears need VIX above 19.20 and RTH below 164.40. Either one will stop the rally in stocks and reintroduce negativity. One of these three parameters will flinch and tell you the path ahead. Bulls win big with NYA 15139. Bears win big with VIX 19.20 and RTH 164.40.

On the last trade that ran for only a couple days, the quant program loses -1.7% and the actual trading loses about a half percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark SPX is rewarding the bulls up over +9% goosed by the AI orgy. The quant program is down -2% this year and the actual trading generated by the quant is up a percent this year.

The NYA, volatility and retail stocks tell the story when trading resumes on Tuesday after the Memorial Day holiday. Thanks to all those that sacrificed themselves in wars. Cher knows how to salute the boys.

6/4/23; 7:00 PM EST =
6/2/23; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/23; 7:00 PM EST =
5/30/23; 10:00 AM EST =
5/28/23; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is -25
5/26/23; 10:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is -25; go long 4197; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +9.3%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.7%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -2.0%)(Actual results this trade = -0.4%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.0%)
5/26/23; 10:00 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
5/26/23; 5:35 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
5/26/23; 3:38 AM EST = -49; signal line is -23
5/25/23; 1:29 PM EST = -35; signal line is -22
5/25/23; 1:03 PM EST = -49; signal line is -21
5/25/23; 12:20 PM EST = -35; signal line is -20
5/25/23; 11:33 AM EST = -49; signal line is -19
5/25/23; 10:39 AM EST = -35; signal line is -18
5/25/23; 9:36 AM EST = -49; signal line is -17
5/25/23; 8:42 AM EST = -33; signal line is -15
5/25/23; 8:03 AM EST = -19; signal line is -15
5/24/23; 10:57 AM EST = -33; signal line is -15
5/24/23; 10:47 AM EST = -49; signal line is -14
5/24/23; 9:36 AM EST = -33; signal line is -13
5/24/23; 9:30 AM EST = -19; signal line is -12; go short 4128; (Benchmark SPX for 2023 = +7.5%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.2%; Keybot algo for 2023 = -0.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.2%; Actual results for 2023 = +1.4%)