STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but that does not tell the story of recent days. The quant flipped short on Tuesday and then back to the long side yesterday. By the time the flip to the shot side could be posted, the robot whipsawed back to the long side. Chips and retail stocks lead the way higher yesterday out of the gate and the banks and commodities are dictating if the party continues.

The VIX remained below the levels mentioned in previous posts so you knew that the bulls were still in control. The algo number is 18 points above the signal line not that big of a difference so the caution flag remains out.

Bulls need GTX above 3773 (now at 3719) to signal the all-clear for more upside stock market joy. Bears need XLF below 32.90 (now at 33.24) to stop the stock market rally and introduce negativity. Higher volatility and weaker chips and retail stocks would fuel negativity.

If XLF loses 32.90, it will likely not be enough to flip the quant short on the first try. If this occurs, however, watch to see if XLF jogs to and fro across the 32.90 line in the sand. If XLF loses 32.90, then regains it for a little while, then loses it again, that is a sign that the stock market is likely weakening, and the robot is likely setting-up to go short. Bulls are in good shape if XLF remains above 32.90.

The trade that ended on Tuesday ran for 11 days. The quant program and the actual trading generated by the quant each gain about +2% on that trade. Keybot the Quant exits SPY and enters RWM. On the whipsaw trade back to the long side, that trade lasting only about 4-1/2 hours, the algorithm program and the actual trading each lose about a percent. Keybot the Quant exits RWM and enters SPY remaining in 1x ETF's. For the year, the S&P 500, which is the US stock market, is down -17%. The Keybot the Quant program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10% with the robot outperforming the S&P 500 by 27 percentage points.

Markets remain chop suey. Watch the bull/bear lines in the sand that currently dictate US stock market direction. XLF 32.90. GTX 3773. VIX 25.84.

7/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
7/28/22; 11:34 AM EST = +9; signal line is -9
7/28/22; 9:57 AM EST = -7; signal line is -11
7/27/22; 3:09 PM EST = +9; signal line is -10
7/27/22; 9:36 AM EST = -7; signal line is -12; go long 3959; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -16.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.7%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.7%)
7/26/22; 2:31 PM EST = -39; signal line is -12
7/26/22; 12:28 PM EST = -23; signal line is -11
7/26/22; 11:58 AM EST = -39; signal line is -11
7/26/22; 11:28 AM EST = -23; signal line is -12; go short 3926; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -17.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +1.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +12.1%)(Actual results this trade = +2.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +10.4%)
7/26/22; 11:10 AM EST = -23; signal line is -13 but algorithm remains long
7/26/22; 10:44 AM EST = -7; signal line is -14
7/26/22; 10:34 AM EST = -23; signal line is -14 but algorithm remains long
7/26/22; 10:17 AM EST = -7; signal line is -15
7/26/22; 10:16 AM EST = +9; signal line is -15
7/26/22; 10:00 AM EST = -7; signal line is -17
7/26/22; 9:51 AM EST = -6; signal line is -18
7/25/22; 3:44 PM EST = +10; signal line is -19
7/25/22; 3:09 PM EST = -6; signal line is -20
7/25/22; 9:54 AM EST = +10; signal line is -22
7/24/22; 7:00 PM EST = -6; signal line is -24
7/22/22; 3:43 PM EST = -6; signal line is -25
7/22/22; 2:05 PM EST = -22; signal line is -27
7/22/22; 11:39 AM EST = -6; signal line is -29
7/22/22; 10:20 AM EST = +10; signal line is -30
7/22/22; 10:05 AM EST = -6; signal line is -32
7/22/22; 10:02 AM EST = -22; signal line is -34
7/21/22; 3:54 PM EST = -6; signal line is -35
7/20/22; 12:41 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37
7/20/22; 12:02 PM EST = -6; signal line is -38
7/20/22; 9:44 AM EST = -22; signal line is -39
7/19/22; 12:36 PM EST = -6; signal line is -40
7/19/22; 12:09 PM EST = -22; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 10:26 AM EST = -6; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 9:48 AM EST = -22; signal line is -43
7/19/22; 9:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -44
7/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = -54; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 3:45 PM EST = -54; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 11:27 AM EST = -38; signal line is -45
7/18/22; 10:18 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/18/22; 9:38 AM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -22; signal line is -47
7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/15/22; 3:08 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 11:09 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 10:33 AM EST = -38; signal line is -46; go long 3855; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.4%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long. The bulls are in control with the algo number 32 points above the signal line. The quant is very active this week printing 13 numbers at the mid-week point. UTIL keeps standing on the 956.78 trap-door.

The bulls are using the retail stocks, chips, utilities and volatility for strength. The bears are trying to keep the banks and commodities in their camp and at the same time grab one of the bull's parameters to create negativity.

Bears need UTIL under 956.78 (the trap-door) and VIX above 26.30 to stop the rally.

Bulls need XLF above 32.90 (now at 32.72) to create more upside joy. GTX above 3788 (now at 3700) will also send stocks strongly higher. The banks are the tell.

If XLF stalls here and cannot move above 32.90, it tells you the bears are going to push back hard and attack the utes and volatility. If XLF pierces up through 32.90, it is game on for more big upside in stocks as the shorts panic.

7/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/20/22; 12:02 PM EST = -6; signal line is -38
7/20/22; 9:44 AM EST = -22; signal line is -39
7/19/22; 12:36 PM EST = -6; signal line is -40
7/19/22; 12:09 PM EST = -22; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 10:26 AM EST = -6; signal line is -42
7/19/22; 9:48 AM EST = -22; signal line is -43
7/19/22; 9:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -44
7/19/22; 9:00 AM EST = -54; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 3:45 PM EST = -54; signal line is -45 but algorithm remains long
7/18/22; 11:27 AM EST = -38; signal line is -45
7/18/22; 10:18 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/18/22; 9:38 AM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/18/22; 9:36 AM EST = -22; signal line is -47
7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -47
7/15/22; 3:08 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side on Friday morning an hour after the opening bell. UTIL regains 956 printing at 963 and VIX drops below 26.78 to 24.23 so the bulls throw confetti buying stocks with reckless abandon. The internal parameters of the quant did not put up a struggle for once, all of the metrics immediately latched and the flip to the long side occurs at SPX 3855. The algo number is only 8 points above the signal line so the stock market remains a coin-flip.

Retail stocks are puffing their chests out wanting a piece of the action. Chips, too. Bulls need RTH above 159.84 (only 22 pennies away) to signal the all-clear for more upside fun. Bulls will also send stocks strongly higher if SOX moves above 2774 (now at 2694).

Bears need to push the VIX above 26.78 and/or UTIL below 956 to reopen the utility trap-door. If either parameter flips bearish, and the SPX is down about 45 points or more, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side.

If RTH or SOX jump into the bull camp, look out, US stocks will be catapulting higher probably in a short squeeze.

On the last trade that only ran for a couple days, the quant and the actual trading each lose about a half percent. On the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500, the US stock market, is down -19%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up about +10% and actual trading triggered by the quant is up about +8% on the year. Keybot exits DOG and enters SPY remaining in 1x ETF's due to the whipsaw price pattern.

Bulls win big with RTH 159.84 and SOX 2744. Bears win big with UTIL 956 and VIX 26.78. Bulls need stronger retail stocks and semiconductors to light the way to big stock market gains. Bears need weaker utilities and higher volatility to create mayhem and destroy any hopes of upside in stocks. As retail stocks go on Monday, so goes the market.

7/24/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/19/22; 9:00 AM EST =
7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/22; 3:08 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 11:09 AM EST = -22; signal line is -46
7/15/22; 10:33 AM EST = -38; signal line is -46; go long 3855; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.3%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.4%)
7/15/22; 10:00 AM EST = -54; signal line is -47
7/15/22; 9:37 AM EST = -54; signal line is -46
7/14/22; 3:58 PM EST = -38; signal line is -46 but algorithm remains short
7/14/22; 2:26 PM EST = -54; signal line is -47
7/14/22; 9:36 AM EST = -68; signal line is -46
7/13/22; 3:59 PM EST = -52; signal line is -44
7/13/22; 2:34 PM EST = -38; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains short
7/13/22; 11:45 AM EST = -52; signal line is -43
7/13/22; 10:02 PM EST = -68; signal line is -42
7/12/22; 3:02 PM EST = -52; signal line is -41; go short 3831; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the bulls battle back yesterday afternoon. Utilities and volatility are running the show these days with UTIL 956.00 and VIX 26.78 the bull/bear lines in the sand.

UTIL is at 956.59 only 59 pennies from opening the trap-door to Hell. S&P futures are down -50 points as this is typed with the VIX above 28. The utility trap-door will likely open so watch to see if it stays open, or not. If UTIL falls below 956.00 and remains below, the stock market will be taking One Last Breath before it collapses into ugliness.

Bulls must hold the line at UTIL 956.00 with everything they got. At the same time, bulls must push the VIX below 26.78 to stage a comeback. If VIX drops under 26.78 and the SPX is above 3829, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long. There is an ugly start on tap for the open, however.

If stocks collapse as the futures indicate, but UTIL recovers or remains above 956, the bears got nothing and stocks will reverse and rally higher today. Ditto with the VIX that should launch higher to 29 and 30 when stocks drop, if not, it hints that a lot of the selling may be exhausted and ending.

UTIL 956.00 and VIX 26.78 tell you everything you need to know about the US stock market direction forward.

7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/22; 10:00 AM EST =
7/13/22; 3:59 PM EST = -52; signal line is -44
7/13/22; 2:34 PM EST = -38; signal line is -44 but algorithm remains short
7/13/22; 11:45 AM EST = -52; signal line is -43
7/13/22; 10:02 PM EST = -68; signal line is -42
7/12/22; 3:02 PM EST = -52; signal line is -41; go short 3831; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side yesterday afternoon at SPX 3831 as volatility ran higher. US stocks are about to open for the regular hump day session and futures are in a sour mood after the inflation report. Markets continue the chop and don't be surprised if a chop higher occurs again.

VIX 26.78 is the bull/bear line in the sand and it pops over 28 after the data remaining firmly in the bear camp that started yesterday at 3 PM EST. Bears remain in control of the stock market as long as the VIX remains above 26.78. If VIX drops below 26.78, the bulls will take over.

Boom. The utility trap-door opens. It's not good for bulls but great for bears. If you were watching yesterday, the bears tried to open it but failed, nonetheless, they created negativity with the higher vol. UTIL 956 is the trap-door that fails in the opening minutes with price down to 953. Can it hold? UTIL 956 will tell you a lot about what happens today. Ditto VIX 26.78.

On the last trade that ran for only a few days, the quant program and actual trading each lose about a percent. For the year, the SPX benchmark index is down about -20%, the quant program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +9% (outperforming the US stock market by nearly 30 percentage points). Keybot the Quant exits QQQ and enters DOG.

Boom. Nullification. UTIL is at 957 the bulls closing the trap-door. Watch UTIL 956 and VIX 26.78. Nothing Else Matters.

7/17/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/15/22; 10:00 AM EST =
7/12/22; 3:02 PM EST = -52; signal line is -41; go short 3831; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.7%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.9%)(Actual results this trade = -1.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.9%)
7/12/22; 8:56 AM EST = -38; signal line is -40
7/12/22; 3:06 AM EST = -52; signal line is -40 but algorithm remains long
7/11/22; 10:57 AM EST = -38; signal line is -39
7/11/22; 10:36 AM EST = -54; signal line is -39 but algorithm remains long
7/10/22; 7:00 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39
7/8/22; 9:00 AM EST = -38; signal line is -38 but algorithm remains long
7/6/22; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39; go long 3856; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.9%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant whipsaws back to the long side at SPX 3856 yesterday afternoon. Interestingly, that is the third turn in three days; Friday the robot flipped long, Tuesday short, now Wednesday long. In the long history of the algorithm, if memory serves, this has only happened one other time. Maybe Thursday will be a fourth turn?

The bears tried to open the UTIL trap-door but could not so the bulls rallied hoping to push VIX below 26.95, and they did creating upside energy. The quant is on the long side again but the markets remain a crap-shoot. The algo number and signal line are both at the -38 and -39 numbers so flip a coin to determine the path ahead.

UTIL 955 and VIX 26.95 remain the key to stock market direction currently. Both are sitting in the bull camp creating upside lift to the US stock market. Bears need UTIL below 955 (now at 968) to open the trap-door and create market mayhem. Bears need VIX above 26.95 (now at 26.69 in real-time) to create negativity in the stock market.

If either UTIL or VIX turns bearish, either one would do, and the SPX drops below 3809, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. If both flip into the bear camp, the robot may flip short faster at SPX 3817, hence the imminent turn notation remains in the title line. It's a crap-shoot. Markets are erratic and unstable.

Bulls need to maintain UTIL above 955, VIX below 26.95, and to try and rally chips, banks, retail and other sectors.

Since VIX is battling at the 26.95 bull/bear line in the sand, that is the rudder for today's market ship. As VIX goes, so goes the stock market in the opposite direction.

On the last trade that did not last a full 2 days, the quant program and actual trading each lose 2-1/2%. For the year, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -19% back out of a bear market according to the silly -20% metric. For the year, the Keybot the Quant program is up about +12% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up about +10% outperforming the benchmark SPX by 29 percentage-points. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters QQQ.

Watch VIX 26.95; it will tell you What's Up. VIX is trading at 26.66.

7/10/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/22; 9:00 AM EST =
7/6/22; 3:12 PM EST = -38; signal line is -39; go long 3856; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -2.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +11.6%)(Actual results this trade = -2.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.9%)
7/5/22; 3:08 PM EST = -52; signal line is -39
7/5/22; 12:21 PM EST = -68; signal line is -38
7/5/22; 12:00 PM EST = -52; signal line is -37
7/5/22; 11:00 AM EST = -68; signal line is -36
7/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = -52; signal line is -35; go short 3760; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -21.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +14.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2022 = +12.4%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH --SHORT -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the short side at SPX 3760 out of the gate yesterday as described in the previous post. The whipsaw action continues. Commodities are collapsing with the rising dollar due to the weakening euro and pound (Europe's economy is falling apart). Utilities and volatility are controlling the US stock market direction today. The bears are in charge with the algo number 13 points below the signal line that is not a glowing endorsement of the downside as yet.

Watch UTIL 954.90, the trap-door for stocks, and VIX 26.95 the other bull/bear line in the sand. The trap-door opened briefly yesterday but the bulls closed it again. You know the drill. If UTIL 954.90 fails, there will be Hell to pay. UTIL is trading at 963.35 this second (bullish) and dipped to the 959 palindrome a few minutes ago. Watch it closely since it tells you if the bulls can survive, or not. It's All Over Now, Baby Blue, if UTIL fails at 954-955 and the trap-door opens for stocks. If UTIL remains above 954, it tells you that the downside does not have much oomph and the bulls will reexert themselves.

Bulls need VIX below 26.95 or they got absolutely nothing. Stocks will not rally unless VIX moves below 26.95. Period. If a rally occurs but VIX remains above 26.95, the rally will fade and give way to lower numbers ahead. If a rally occurs and VIX drops below 26.95, it is off to the races and if the SPX is above 3849 trending higher, Keybot the Quant will likely flip long, hence the imminent turn notation in the title line.

On the last trade, a whipsaw from late Friday before the holiday, the algo program and actual trading both lose -1.6%. For the year, the S&P 500 is down -21%, the robot's program is up +14% and the actual trading triggered by the quant is up +12% (outperforming the benchmark US stock market by 33 percentage-points). The quant will remain in the 1x ETF's for another 30 days due to another whipsaw. The erratic price moves are chop suey chopping up bulls and bears alike. Keybot the Quant exits SH and enters DIA. 

SPX is at 3832. UTIL is at 964 but bears need 954. VIX is at 27.76 but bulls need 26.95. One of them will flinch and tell you the direction of the stock market ahead.

7/10/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/8/22; 9:00 AM EST =
7/5/22; 3:08 PM EST = -52; signal line is -39
7/5/22; 12:21 PM EST = -68; signal line is -38
7/5/22; 12:00 PM EST = -52; signal line is -37
7/5/22; 11:00 AM EST = -68; signal line is -36
7/5/22; 9:36 AM EST = -52; signal line is -35; go short 3760; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -21.1%)(Keybot algo this trade = -1.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +14.2%)(Actual results this trade = -1.6%; Actual results for 2022 = +12.4%)
7/4/22; 3:45 AM EST = -36; signal line is -35 but algorithm remains long
7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST = -22; signal line is -36
7/1/22; 3:33 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37; go long 3822; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +15.8%)(Actual results this trade = +6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +14.0%)

Note Added 12:11 PM EST: The SPX is at 3815 down 17 points but UTIL is up at 961. Note that the bears were jumping up and down on the trap door at 11:01 AM EST with UTIL printing the LOD at 954.71, but the trap-door would not open. The battle continues. VIX remains elevated at 27.80. Perhaps the bulls will now try to push volatility lower with the help of the Fed.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant flips to the long side on Friday afternoon at SPX 3822 during the last one-half hour of trading. Higher utilities and lower volatility pump the stock market higher producing a big reversal off the intraday lows. July begins on a positive note for the bulls.

The algo number is 15 points above the signal line so the flip to the bull camp is not enthusiastic as yet. The caution flag and imminent turn notation is in the title line since anything can happen come Tuesday when US markets reopen after the Independence Day holiday on Monday, 7/4/22.

Utilities, volatility and commodities are controlling US stock market direction currently. UTIL is at 989 above the key 953 level and also crosses above the 983 line in the sand creating stock market joy. It took the whole week to get there but UTIL finally made it overcoming 983. But, next week will be what have you done for me lately? The 983 number is meaningless and replaced with 1016.64 for all of next week (only 4 trading days due to the holiday).

Thus, UTIL must gain 34 big points out of the gate on Tuesday morning. It likely will not happen which sets up bearish negativity to start next week. If UTIL does not attain 1017 as trading begins, watch the SPX because if it is below 3752 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely whipsaw back to the short side (hence, the imminent turn notation above). The SPX begins at 3825 so that would be a hefty drop of 73 points that the bears need.

The VIX drops to 26.70, comically called out by happenstance in the last message before it occurred in real-time, creating bull fuel. The big stock market rally into the closing bell was created by the VIX dropping below 27.02 so watch it like a hawk. Bulls rule below 27 but bears rule above 27. Like the utes, if VIX moves above 27 and the SPX drops below 3752, the robot will likely flip short.

If UTIL is unable to achieve 1017 (likely) and VIX moves above 27, the bears may be able to flip the model short if the SPX drops below 3784. So there are lots of moving parts and Tuesday may be a wild day as traders nurse hangovers and upset stomachs from parties, fireworks and deviled eggs left out in the sun a few hours. The stock market is a coin-flip.

Bulls need stronger commodities to keep the upside party going. UTIL will likely not attain 1017 right away on Monday morning, so bulls need something else to keep them going and that is commodities. GTX is at 3824. Bulls will rejoice with stocks rallying if GTX overtakes 3843 heading higher. Out of the gate on Friday morning, GTX came straight up to kiss the bull/bear line in the sand, but collapsed rather than poking up through. It will likely take another run at 3843 on Tuesday morning.

Markets can go either way but UTIL 953 and 1017, VIX 27.02 and GTX 3843 tell you everything you need to know about stock market direction next week. UTIL is above 953 and VIX is below 27.02 creating lift and buoyancy in the stock market but UTIL is below 1017 and GTX under 3843 creating sogginess in stocks. One or several of these parameters may flip sides and that tells you where the stock market is going. Easy-peasy.

On the last trade that ran for 3 weeks, the robot program and actual trading both gain about +6% (the model was short as stocks fell). For the year thus far, with one-half of it in the bag, the benchmark SPX is down -20% continuing to tease that stupid bear market level.

Use the SPX 12-month MA cross and the NYA 40-week MA cross to identify cyclical bull and bear markets not the idiot -20% stuff. Also, use the slope of the 150-day MA for indexes and individual stocks to identify bull and bear markets. If the 150-day MA is sloping down, that ticker is in a bear market, if sloping up, a bull market. The S&P 500, the US stock market, is unequivocally in a cyclical bear market currently despite that -19.8% garbage that says it is not.

The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +16% on the year thus far and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +14% so far in 2022. Keybot the Quant's trades are outperforming the benchmark SPX by 34 percentage points; that's bigtime. The whipsaw timer from 6/2/22 has not yet expired so Keybot exits SH and enters DIA remaining in the 1x ETF's.

Happy July 4th to all. The bulls are back in charge; the Boys Are Back in Town as Thin Lizzy would sing. Keep your eyes open for a potential whipsaw on Tuesday but, as explained above, the SPX is going to have to drop from 41 to 73 points so it may be too tall of an order for the bears.

If you want the stock market to drop, you want weaker utilities, weaker commodities and higher volatility. If you want the stock market to rally, you want stronger utes, stronger commodities and lower volatility.

7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
7/1/22; 3:33 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37; go long 3822; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -19.8%)(Keybot algo this trade = +6.3%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +15.8%)(Actual results this trade = +6.0%; Actual results for 2022 = +14.0%)
7/1/22; 2:20 PM EST = -22; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
7/1/22; 1:30 PM EST = -36; signal line is -37 but algorithm remains short
7/1/22; 12:03 PM EST = -52; signal line is -37
7/1/22; 11:06 AM EST = -52; signal line is -36
6/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = -52; signal line is -34
6/30/22; 10:18 AM EST = -52; signal line is -33
6/28/22; 11:25 AM EST = -38; signal line is -32
6/28/22; 11:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 10:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -29
6/28/22; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 6:35 AM EST = -21; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 5:41 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
6/28/22; 4:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 3:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is -21
6/27/22; 3:59 PM EST = -21; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:13 AM EST = -35; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:01 AM EST = -51; signal line is -17
6/27/22; 9:47 AM EST = -35; signal line is -14
6/27/22; 9:36 AM EST = -51; signal line is -13
6/26/22; 7:00 PM EST = -35; signal line is -10
6/24/22; 3:23 PM EST = -35; signal line is -7
6/24/22; 3:00 PM EST = -21; signal line is -5
6/24/22; 1:48 PM EST = -37; signal line is -4
6/24/22; 10:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is -2
6/19/22; 7:00 PM EST = -51; signal line is +1
6/16/22; 9:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is +3
6/13/22; 10:48 AM EST = -51; signal line is +6
6/13/22; 9:36 AM EST = -35; signal line is +9
6/12/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +10
6/10/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +12
6/10/22; 8:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +13
6/10/22; 7:11 AM EST = -5; signal line is +13
6/10/22; 6:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is +13
6/9/22; 2:41 PM EST = -5; signal line is +13; go short 4078; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -14.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +9.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market roller coaster ride continues. The robot is active this week except for hump day when it did not print any numbers. The algo number is 18 points below the signal line so the bears remain in charge. Utilities, volatility and commodities are controlling the stock market direction currently. After a long run, commodities took the pipe creating the negative market mood.

Bulls must keep the stock market trap-door closed that is at UTIL 953 with price at 969. If/when UTIL loses 953, stock market Hell will be unleashed. The short-term picture for utes is encouraging (UTIL above 953) and should help stocks gain their footing. It is actually a huge win for bulls to keep UTIL above 953. Watch it every day forward because, again, when it fails, you will see the Grim Reaper. If utes fall into a weekly downtrend (see previous post), it will paint an ugly picture for the weeks ahead for stocks.

Setting utes aside assuming UTIL will remain above 953 but not have anymore upside gusto, volatility and commodities will be the big drivers of stocks. A weaker dollar would help commodities recover and aid the bull case. Goldman's GTX index needs to move above 3837 (now at 3768) to create upside market joy.  

Bulls need the VIX to drop below 27.03 (now trading in real-time at 28.64) to create a bullish rally. Watch for jog moves in the VIX and GTX that will hint that the quant is getting ready to go long (VIX or GTX crosses the lines in the sand but then a short time later (minutes or an hour or so) revert back but then a little while after that move back over the bull/bear line). For example, if VIX drops below 27, then a half hour later is at 27.50 or more, and then a half hour after that is down to 26.80, the robot is likely ready to flip long.

The SPX would likely need to be above 3819 or higher for Keybot the Quant to flip long. If VIX or GTX turn bullish, consider the caution flag to be out and if the SPX is above 3819 moving higher, Keybot the Quant is likely ready to go long (imminent turn to the long side).

Volatility is the big tell. Bulls have absolutely zero oomph unless they move the VIX under 27. If so, you will notice a huge rally develop.

7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 = -52; signal line is -34
6/30/22; 10:18 AM EST = -52; signal line is -33
6/28/22; 11:25 AM EST = -38; signal line is -32
6/28/22; 11:13 AM EST = -24; signal line is -30 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 10:36 AM EST = -38; signal line is -29
6/28/22; 10:00 AM EST = -24; signal line is -27 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 6:35 AM EST = -21; signal line is -26 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 5:41 AM EST = -35; signal line is -24
6/28/22; 4:58 AM EST = -21; signal line is -23 but algorithm remains short
6/28/22; 3:06 AM EST = -35; signal line is -21
6/27/22; 3:59 PM EST = -21; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:13 AM EST = -35; signal line is -19
6/27/22; 10:01 AM EST = -51; signal line is -17
6/27/22; 9:47 AM EST = -35; signal line is -14
6/27/22; 9:36 AM EST = -51; signal line is -13
6/26/22; 7:00 PM EST = -35; signal line is -10

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as the stock market reacts to every news bite. Volatility and the utilities are running the show currently. Bulls need VIX below 27.00 (now at 27.23) to signal the all-clear for more upside fun. VIX begins trading at 3 AM EST so volatility will tell you early-on how the US trade is going to go.

Bears need UTIL below 952.30 to reopen the trap-door for US stocks. UTIL begins at 953.63 only pennies away in the bull camp but this can change at the opening bell. The stock market will deteriorate if UTIL loses 952.30. If utilities rally, the bulls must next push UTIL above 983 to create more upside fuel for stocks. This number is in play all week and then becomes worse for bulls at UTIL 1017 for next week (the week of 7/5/22 after the holiday).

In other words, UTIL has to rally this week from 953 to 1017 by 4 PM EST Friday, otherwise, there is likely Hell to pay. Utes will tell you a lot about the stock market this week. If utilities rally strong and start moving towards 1000 that will be a strong bullish signal for stocks. The numbers get hard for UTIL to meet, however, over the next month. Thus, an epic and historic stock market crash may occur in the stock market over the next month. UTIL will provide guidance.

If UTIL rallies, but the VIX remains above 27, the bulls got nothing and utes will likely roll over and die. If VIX drops under 27 out of the gate in the middle of the night, it will set up party-time for the US stock market for Monday.

Keybot the Quant likely needs more than the VIX turning bullish to flip long but if VIX goes sub 27, Monday may develop into a very bullish day. The bears are cruising with the algo number 25 points below the signal line.

The Independence Day holiday is next weekend and stocks are typically buoyant into a 3-day holiday weekend (Thursday and Friday). Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers this week one on Tuesday the other Thursday. June ends on Thursday which is EOM, EOQ2 and EOH1. End of first half and end of quarter window dressing may help bulls.

7/3/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/30/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM EOQ2 EOH1 =
6/28/22; 10:00 AM EST =
6/26/22; 7:00 PM EST = -35; signal line is -10
6/24/22; 3:23 PM EST = -35; signal line is -7
6/24/22; 3:00 PM EST = -21; signal line is -5
6/24/22; 1:48 PM EST = -37; signal line is -4
6/24/22; 10:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is -2
6/19/22; 7:00 PM EST = -51; signal line is +1
6/16/22; 9:00 AM EST = -51; signal line is +3
6/13/22; 10:48 AM EST = -51; signal line is +6

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short as Black Monday occurs on Wall Street. Utes failed on Friday so you knew the week would begin soggy. The wheels fell off before munch time when UTIL lost 952. The stock market trap door flew open, and Joe Sixpack was swinging where the little birdies sing meeting his Waterloo, as Stonewall Jackson sings. The United States stock market is down about -9% in a 3-day crash now down more than -20% from the record highs. It was an ugly tape today.

The bears are cruising with the algo number 57 points below the signal line. The bulls have to push utilities and copper higher and hope for positive news to stabilize markets. UTIL 952 will halt the selling. UTIL begins tomorrow at 935.

The Fed is going to hike rates on Wednesday and 50 bips was expected now many call for 75 bips. The wealthy elite class raped the stock market, and America, for all its worth from March 2009 (when QE 1 started) to present, courtesy of the Fed's doves that will receive their future quid pro quo from the investment banks, and are taking the easy money off the table. It is the corrupt crony capitalism system.

6/19/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/16/22; 9:00 AM EST =
6/13/22; 10:48 AM EST = -51; signal line is +6
6/13/22; 9:36 AM EST = -35; signal line is +9
6/12/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +10
6/10/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +12
6/10/22; 8:36 AM EST = -19; signal line is +13
6/10/22; 7:11 AM EST = -5; signal line is +13
6/10/22; 6:37 AM EST = -19; signal line is +13
6/9/22; 2:41 PM EST = -5; signal line is +13; go short 4078; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -14.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +9.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.0%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips short yesterday afternoon at SPX 4078. The robot did not bite on the short side out of the gate due to the gap-down move. Typically, stocks will recover under that scenario but the weakness in copper creates a pall over the market and in the afternoon the wheels fell off.

The chips started to rally early and then performed a faceplant guaranteeing stock weakness. The quant is most fixated on volatility right now. Also, copper and utilities.

As volatility goes, so goes the stock market inversely. The bull/bear line in the sand is VIX 26.59. Yesterday's stock market selling is no biggie but if the VIX pops above 26.59, the stock market will quickly deteriorate. The VIX ran up into the 26.40's a couple hours ago and is now trading at 26.34 (bullish) about 4-1/2 hours before the opening bell in the States. The selloff will not have any downside oomph if the VIX remains below 26.59.

Bulls need higher copper to steady the market ship. Bulls need CPER above 26.77 (now at 26.39). This equates to the bulls needing a +1.4% pop in the red metal futures. Copper futures are down -0.3% right now so the bulls need a +1.7% gain in copper today to create stock market happiness.

The quant is tracking utilities again which have been ignored for several weeks; an interesting development. The utes tell you if a fun stock market crash will occur, or not. UTIL collapses to 986. The bull/bear line in the sand is at 938 so the bulls are likely safe today. All Hades will break loose if UTIL loses 938. But this is not the key element in play. For all of next week, UTIL 988.47 is the bull/bear line in the sand. UTIL at 986 is a failure that will create stock market weakness but it does not count until Monday morning. Watch UTIL 988 like a hawk today because the bulls need to push utilities back above before the closing bell. If UTIL ends the week below 988, that will create stock market weakness come Monday morning.

The analysis is more intense, however. UTIL 951 is also coming into play which is the trap-door for the US stock market. If UTIL finishes today above 988.47, the bulls remain in the game and have a good chance of rallying stocks next week into the Wednesday FOMC decision. If UTIL remains below 988.47 at the end of today, that is a bad omen for next week and will create downside in stocks. If UTIL 951 fails, it is light's out. The SPX would be expected to lose between 20 and 40 points within an hour or two after the trap-door fails and serious stock market carnage would follow. The US markets would assume a crash profile if UTIL 951 fails. So there is lots of fun ahead. Keybot sees 1's and 0's so it will be interesting to see how it navigates through the minefield.

On the last trade, that ran for a week, the quant program and actual trading each lose a half percent. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -14%. The Keybot the Quant algorithm program is up +10% and the actual trading generated by the robot is up +8%. After 5 months of 2022, Keybot is outperforming the SPX by +22%. Keybot exits SPY and enters SH remaining in the 1x non-leveraged ETF's because the market price action is erratic and unstable prone to whipsaws. Speaking of which, do not be surprised if Keybot whipsaws back to the long side but it likely needs stronger copper and chips.

Watch VIX 26.59 today since it tells you everything you need to know about US stock market direction. If VIX remains below, watch copper and the chips to see if they are rallying which would be positive for the bull case.

If VIX pops above 26.59, stocks are in major trouble. If UTIL closes below 988.47 today, it is a bad omen for next week. Conversely, a rally in utes today and UTIL moving above 988.47 sets up positivity for early next week.

6/12/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/10/22; 10:00 AM EST =
6/9/22; 2:41 PM EST = -5; signal line is +13; go short 4078; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -14.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +9.5%)(Actual results this trade = -0.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.0%)
6/9/22; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
6/8/22; 10:16 AM EST = +11; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
6/8/22; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +13
6/8/22; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains long
6/7/22; 3:12 PM EST = +27; signal line is +13
6/7/22; 2:49 PM EST = +11; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
6/7/22; 2:15 PM EST = +27; signal line is +13
6/7/22; 12:10 PM EST = +11; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
6/7/22; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains long
6/6/22; 2:21 PM EST = +11; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains long
6/6/22; 2:01 PM EST = +27; signal line is +11
6/6/22; 12:08 PM EST = +11; signal line is +10
6/6/22; 10:38 AM EST = +27; signal line is +10
6/6/22; 10:23 AM EST = +43; signal line is +9
6/6/22; 9:36 AM EST = +27; signal line is +7
6/5/22; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6
6/3/22; 1:23 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5
6/3/22; 1:07 PM EST = +27; signal line is +4
6/3/22; 10:34 AM EST = +11; signal line is +3
6/3/22; 9:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2
6/2/22; 10:53 AM EST = +27; signal line is +0
6/2/22; 10:25 AM EST = +11; signal line is -1
6/2/22; 10:17 AM EST = +27; signal line is -2; go long 4102; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -13.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.5%)

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION -- TURN MAY BE IMMINENT

Keybot the Quant remains long in the choppy erratic markets. Tomorrow is decision time with the algo number 2 points below the signal line wanting the quant to flip short. The internal parameters will not yet latch 100% to allow the move. It can be like herding kittens. There is likely some drama on tap for tomorrow as markets decide to bounce, or die. The imminent turn to the downside is in play.

The quant is champing at the bit to go short and if the SPX slips below 4107 trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short. The SPX will begin the Thursday session at 4116 so bears need at least -9 points in the S&P futures overnight.

Bears need weaker copper and/or higher volatility which will guarantee weaker stocks going forward. Copper is sitting smack-dab on top of its bull/bear line in the sand so it will provide a heads-up overnight. As copper goes, so goes the US stock market on Thursday. The bulls must keep CPER above 26.82 (now at 26.83) to maintain hopes for the relief rally to continue. There will likely be Hell to pay if copper trades negative.

Bulls need higher chips and banks. Bulls need SOX above 3075 (now at 3019) and XLF above 35.40 (now at 34.62). These goals may take a little time but the bulls do not have time. Bulls need to come to the opening bell loaded for bear pushing semiconductors and banks strongly higher out of the gate if they want to extend the rally. Check these sectors trading in the pre-market.

Boiling it down to something simple, stock market direction is currently a game of copper versus chips. Bears need lower copper, any negativity will create bear action and likely flip Keybot the Quant short, while bulls need to keep copper green and push chips higher as fast as possible.

Watching copper and chips is more important than watching the SPX since these 2 parameters are going to tell the S&P 500 what to do tomorrow.

6/12/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/10/22; 10:00 AM EST =
6/8/22; 10:16 AM EST = +11; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
6/8/22; 10:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +13
6/8/22; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains long
6/7/22; 3:12 PM EST = +27; signal line is +13
6/7/22; 2:49 PM EST = +11; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
6/7/22; 2:15 PM EST = +27; signal line is +13
6/7/22; 12:10 PM EST = +11; signal line is +13 but algorithm remains long
6/7/22; 9:36 AM EST = -5; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains long
6/6/22; 2:21 PM EST = +11; signal line is +12 but algorithm remains long
6/6/22; 2:01 PM EST = +27; signal line is +11
6/6/22; 12:08 PM EST = +11; signal line is +10
6/6/22; 10:38 AM EST = +27; signal line is +10
6/6/22; 10:23 AM EST = +43; signal line is +9
6/6/22; 9:36 AM EST = +27; signal line is +7
6/5/22; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +6
6/3/22; 1:23 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long after the jobs circus Friday. Every day is a different sideshow. Despite the drop in stocks, volatility did not budge. VIX remains low in the bull camp. Ditto copper that remains elevated and bullish.

The bears grab the chips low-hanging fruit smacking the SOX around with a baseball bat creating the stock market negativity.

The algo number is only 6 points above the signal line so the stock market is a coin-flip. Chips, volatility and copper dictate stock market direction currently. Everything else is noise. Banks remain important as well.

Bears need CPER below 26.78 and/or VIX above 26.73. Either parameter will do. Both will create a serious drop in stock prices. Copper futures trade overnight into Monday morning and the VIX will be online at 3 AM EST Monday. Copper futures need to drop about -1% to create market mayhem so watch that overnight Sunday. If copper is down more than -1%, the stock market is in trouble. If copper is weak but not down -1%, that is not a big deal. If copper is positive, that tells you the US stock market is likely going to rally on Monday.

Bears also need higher volatility to prove that they have downside gusto. The VIX has to move 2 big handles to 26.73 to prove that the wheels are falling off the stock market (typically no biggie for volatility that can print crazy big point moves).

If either CPER or VIX turn bearish, consider the imminent turn to the downside in play, and if the SPX is down 10 or more points and trending lower, Keybot the Quant will likely flip short.

Bulls need to keep copper and volatility in the bull camp while pulling the semiconductors higher. Bulls need SOX above 3082 to start a strong upside rally in the stock market.

Bulls need SOX 3082 while bears need either CPER 26.78 or VIX 26.73. One of these 3 will flinch and tell you where the stock market is going. If status quo remains, stocks will bump along sideways until one of them steps up to the plate to reveal their intentions. Keybot prints one prescheduled number next week on Friday.

6/12/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/10/22; 10:00 AM EST =
6/5/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/3/22; 1:23 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5
6/3/22; 1:07 PM EST = +27; signal line is +4
6/3/22; 10:34 AM EST = +11; signal line is +3
6/3/22; 9:00 AM EST = +27; signal line is +2
6/2/22; 10:53 AM EST = +27; signal line is +0

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long but there is a story to be told. Craziness. The stock market has been psycho this week up, down, and all around. The quant flips short on hump day then whipsaws back to the long side this morning. It is wild action. If you ignored the last 2 days you would not notice that anything happened. Copper exploded higher which maintains buoyancy in stocks.

Semiconductors, volatility and banks are what matters as previous posts highlight. Copper matters but it has rocket launched higher and should remain in the bull camp for a little while.

Chips and volatility are creating bull fuel while the banks remain in the bear camp. The thrust higher today in stocks is initiated by the chips. Volatility drops and is comfortably below the bull/bear line in the sand at VIX 26.80 creating upside strength in the stock market.

Thus, the battle is chips versus banks. Bears need SOX below 3083 (now at 3137 running higher creating upside joy for stocks). Bulls need XLF above 35.55 (now at 35.22 in the bear camp) to seal the deal for an upside orgy party in the stock market. One of these two will flinch and it will tell you the stock market direction forward.

For the trade from last Friday to Tuesday, the quant program and actual trading each lost about -1%. Keybot the Quant exited SSO and entered SDS remaining in the 2x ETF's.

That trade lasted all of one day from Wednesday to today. The algo program and the actual trading are flat on this trade. For the year thus far, the benchmark S&P 500 is down -14% while the Keybot the Quant program is up +10% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +9% (outperforming the benchmark by +23%). Keybot exits SDS and enters SPY the 1x ETF since the quant considers the last trade a technical whipsaw. Markets are too erratic so the robot drops down into the single less risky ETF's for the next 30 days.

Watch SOX 3083 and XLF 35.55. One of them will win and one will lose and the path forward will be written. There are always Winners and Losers in the Big City.

6/5/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/3/22; 9:00 AM EST =
6/2/22; 10:53 AM EST = +27; signal line is +0
6/2/22; 10:25 AM EST = +11; signal line is -1
6/2/22; 10:17 AM EST = +27; signal line is -2; go long 4102; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -13.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.0%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.1%)(Actual results this trade = +0.1%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.5%)
6/2/22; 9:37 AM EST = +11; signal line is -4 but algorithm remains short
6/1/22; 1:38 PM EST = -5; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
6/1/22; 11:24 AM EST = -19; signal line is -5
6/1/22; 10:46 AM EST = -5; signal line is -5 but algorithm remains short
6/1/22; 10:39 AM EST = -19; signal line is -6; go short 4103; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -13.9%)(Keybot algo this trade = -0.6%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.1%)(Actual results this trade = -1.2%; Actual results for 2022 = +8.4%)
6/1/22; 10:22 AM EST = -5; signal line is -6
5/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +11; signal line is -6
5/31/22; 3:59 PM EST = +11; signal line is -7
5/31/22; 3:28 PM EST = +27; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 2:48 PM EST = +11; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 1:45 PM EST = +27; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 11:40 AM EST = +11; signal line is -7
5/31/22; 10:25 AM EST = -3; signal line is -6
5/31/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains long
5/31/22; 9:39 AM EST = -19; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains long
5/31/22; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
5/29/22; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5
5/27/22; 11:43 AM EST = +11; signal line is +6; go long 4127; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.3%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.7%)(Actual results this trade = +12.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.6%)

Note Added 3:26 PM EST: SOX 3141. XLF 35.29.

Note Added 3:28 PM EST: SOX 3130. XLF 35.22. Craziness.

Note Added 4:22 PM EST: SOX 3158. XLF 35.38. VIX 24.72. The bulls pumped the banks into the closing bell but XLF needs another 17 pennies to prove that the stock market will run far higher. Tomorrow's another day. SOX is a comfortable 75 points above 3083 its bear danger line.

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant remains long through a choppy session. Volatility failed in the early morning then the chips were down, so all looked bleak, but they reversed and then banks rallied so it was all blue skies and rainbows, but then financials are punched in the face into the closing bell sending stocks lower. The bulls remain in control of the stock market waving the volatility and semiconductor banners. VIX is below 26.79 and SOX is above 3084 so the bulls are buying stocks.

The quant may go into a lull period sometimes, like the last couple weeks, but then on any given day the robot can go nutso spitting out numbers faster than Timmy the neighbor kid spitting watermelon seeds. The algo prints 10 numbers today although 2 are pre-scheduled numbers.

The battleground today was the banks as forecasted ahead of time. XLF danced on each side of the bull/bear line in the sand at 35.58, and in the final minutes the bears win sending XLF down to 35.47. If XLF remains below 35.58, the stock market will weaken and the downside selling can be gauged by VIX 26.79 and SOX 3084. If XLF rallies above 35.58 and higher, traders will be buying stocks with both fists.

Higher copper will also help the bulls that need to push CPER above 26.65 (now at 25.97). This equates to a +2.6% rise in copper futures. This is a big ask but watch to see if the bulls can bite off a few smaller copper chunks and eat the +2.6% over a 2 or 3-day period which would add more upside for the stock market.

Thus, bulls need the stronger banks to signal the all-clear for upside orgy time in the stock market. Higher copper will create even more upside. Bears need to send banks and chips lower and volatility higher to create market mayhem.

The bulls are in control of the stock market with the algo number 17 points above the signal line. Today was the last day of May and June trading begins in the morning.

6/5/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/3/22; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = +11; signal line is -6
5/31/22; 3:59 PM EST = +11; signal line is -7
5/31/22; 3:28 PM EST = +27; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 2:48 PM EST = +11; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 1:45 PM EST = +27; signal line is -8
5/31/22; 11:40 AM EST = +11; signal line is -7
5/31/22; 10:25 AM EST = -3; signal line is -6
5/31/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is -3 but algorithm remains long
5/31/22; 9:39 AM EST = -19; signal line is +0 but algorithm remains long
5/31/22; 3:06 AM EST = -3; signal line is +3 but algorithm remains long
5/29/22; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5

STOCK MARKET BULLISH -- LONG -- CAUTION

Keybot the Quant flips long at SPX 4127 on Friday morning at 11:43 AM EST. As the previous message told you days before, watch volatility and the chips and they drive the model to flip to the bull side.

It is simple. The bulls need the banks to prove they have more strength and a strong upside orgy would begin. Bulls need XLF above 35.58 and price is at...... wait for it....... wait a bit longer for it ..... 35.57 only one penny away. The XLF tagged 35.59 in the final minute of trading on Friiday but closes below. XLF 35.58 is the parameter to watch since it tells you who wins in the week ahead.

Bears need to keep SOX above 3080 (now at 3115) and VIX below 26.44 (now at 25.72), the 2 parameters that flipped the quant long on Friday, while pushing XLF at least one penny higher. If XLF is higher, the bulls will be throwing confetti watching stocks rally.

If XLF fails at 35.58 and is spanked down, stocks will become soggy. At this point watch the chips and volatility parameters shown. If either one turns bearish, stocks will become negative and if the SOX and VIX both flip back to the bear camp, the stock market will collapse.

So it is that simple; XLF 35.58, SOX 3080 and VIX 26.44. It is all you need to know. If the SOX or the VIX flips bearish, consider the imminent turn to the down side to be in play. If the stock market goes south, watch the SPX 4070-4090 range which likely spells trouble ahead if breached to the downside.

On the last trade that ran for 36 days; about 5 weeks, the quant program gains a big +7% and the actual trading gains a huge +12.5%. For 2022 thus far, the SPX is down -13% while the Keybt the Quant program is up +11% and the actual trading generated by the quant is up +10%. The actual trading flips positive after the -15% deficit a couple months ago a +25% turnaround! The 2x ETF's can punch you in the face but also be rewarding. Keybot the Quant exited SDS and entered SSO.

Today is Memorial Day a time to remember the ones that did not make it home. A salute to these noble brothers and sisters. US markets are closed today and reopen tomorrow for a 4-day trading week. Keybot prints 2 pre-scheduled numbers tomorrow, one for month-end (EOM). Another pre-scheduled number prints on Friday morning.

Banks, chips and volatility tell you everything you need to know. Everything else is noise.

6/5/22; 7:00 PM EST =
6/3/22; 9:00 AM EST =
5/31/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM =
5/31/22; 10:00 AM EST =
5/29/22; 7:00 PM EST = +11; signal line is +5
5/27/22; 11:43 AM EST = +11; signal line is +6; go long 4127; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -13.4%)(Keybot algo this trade = +7.3%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +10.7%)(Actual results this trade = +12.5%; Actual results for 2022 = +9.6%)
5/27/22; 10:00 AM EST = -5; signal line is +8
5/27/22; 9:49 AM EST = -5; signal line is +9
5/22/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +11
5/18/22; 9:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +14
5/17/22; 3:51 PM EST = -19; signal line is +16
5/17/22; 2:46 PM EST = -5; signal line is +18
5/17/22; 2:15 PM EST = -19; signal line is +20
5/17/22; 1:06 PM EST = -5; signal line is +22
5/15/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +24
5/13/22; 10:05 AM EST = -19; signal line is +25
5/13/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +27
5/8/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +29
5/6/22; 9:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +30
5/1/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -19; signal line is +31
4/26/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +33
4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +35
4/22/22; 1:39 PM EST = -19; signal line is +36
4/22/22; 10:13 AM EST = -3; signal line is +37
4/22/22; 9:37 AM EST = +13; signal line is +38
4/21/22; 12:13 PM EST = +27; signal line is +39; go short 4453; (Benchmark SPX for 2022 = -6.6%)(Keybot algo this trade = +0.8%; Keybot algo for 2022 = +3.4%)(Actual results this trade = +1.5%; Actual results for 2022 = -2.9%)

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. A pre-scheduled number prints a few minutes ago with the bears remaining in full control of the US stock market with the algo number 33 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. The quant comes back to life this week printing 4 numbers in yesterday's session.

The bulls, and the Fed, are trying to push volatility lower and get that jackboot back onto the throat of Uncle Vix keeping him down. The bulls need VIX below 25.90 to confirm that the relief rally is strong and has Legs. The bulls also need stronger chips and must push SOX above 3115.

VIX and SOX tell you if the stock market rally continues, and if it does, how strong it will be. If 1 parameter turns bullish consider the caution flag to be out and if both turn bullish, especially if they jog back and forth across the bull/bear lines in the sand, consider the imminent turn to the long side to be in play.

5/22/22; 7:00 PM EST =
5/18/22; 9:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +14
5/17/22; 3:51 PM EST = -19; signal line is +16
5/17/22; 2:46 PM EST = -5; signal line is +18
5/17/22; 2:15 PM EST = -19; signal line is +20
5/17/22; 1:06 PM EST = -5; signal line is +22
5/15/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +24
5/13/22; 10:05 AM EST = -19; signal line is +25
5/13/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +27
5/8/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +29

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the Quant remains short. The bulls are taken to the shed out back and beaten mercilessly. The bears remain in full control of the stock market with the algo number 48 points below the signal line. The bears are cruising. Bears need weaker utilities and commodities to extend the selling while bulls need lower volatility to halt the selling.

The quant remains in suspended animation only printing the pre-scheduled numbers. This is atypical behavior for the model. The algorithm is pinned into the bear camp except for very few areas such as utes and commodities that remain in the bull camp.

5/15/22; 7:00 PM EST =
5/13/22; 10:00 AM EST =
5/8/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +29
5/6/22; 9:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +30
5/1/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -19; signal line is +31

STOCK MARKET BEARISH -- SHORT

Keybot the quant remains short after the Federal Reserve raises the key rate a half-point. Fed Chairman Powell takes the 75-bip hikes off the table so his comments are viewed as dovish and voila, stocks experience an orgy rally.

The Fed tries to maintain its jackboots on the throat of volatility and despite the wild over 100-point gain in the SPX after the announcement, the VIX remains bearish. Volatility is a metric that should have turned bullish for that magnitude of orgy.

Bears remain in control of the US stock market with the algo number 50 points below the signal line.

The quant has been quiet for over a week. Last week it did not print any numbers except for the pre-scheduled number. This week Keybot has not printed any numbers either. Status quo. Technical damage remains in play despite yesterday's happy day.

Chips and volatility tell you if the rally has legs going forward. Bulls need SOX above 3187 (now at 3164) so any semiconductor news is uber importante. Bulls need VIX below 24.64 (now at 26.07 with S&P futures down -20). Even if these 2 parameters flip into the bull camp, Keybot the Quant may still not flip long. The NYA index will come into play if chips and volatility extend the rally.

The bears simply need to prevent the chips and volatility from turning bullish and that will guarantee more stock market misery ahead.

5/8/22; 7:00 PM EST =
5/6/22; 9:00 AM EST =
5/1/22; 7:00 PM EST EOM = -19; signal line is +31
4/26/22; 10:00 AM EST = -19; signal line is +33
4/24/22; 7:00 PM EST = -19; signal line is +35